One of tonight's games, Pittsburgh was favored by over -220 against Miami. Both starters, Cole & Koehler are average, Cole with 7-8 record with okay ERA 3.25 & Koehler with 9-8 record with higher ERA of 3.86 before tonight's game.
Pit was 33-25 @ home & Mia record of 31-31.
With these basic information, how the f.u.ck can Pit be favored over -220? What do odds makers use to set up odds in baseball?
I'm really curious, can someone with inside knowledge chime in?
One of tonight's games, Pittsburgh was favored by over -220 against Miami. Both starters, Cole & Koehler are average, Cole with 7-8 record with okay ERA 3.25 & Koehler with 9-8 record with higher ERA of 3.86 before tonight's game.
Pit was 33-25 @ home & Mia record of 31-31.
With these basic information, how the f.u.ck can Pit be favored over -220? What do odds makers use to set up odds in baseball?
I'm really curious, can someone with inside knowledge chime in?
Marlins no Stanton… Pirates coming off a sweep at Giants.. Coles is the Pirates Ace. He pitched well and the. Pirates had a 5-3 lead. In 8th.. Bullpen blew it
Marlins no Stanton… Pirates coming off a sweep at Giants.. Coles is the Pirates Ace. He pitched well and the. Pirates had a 5-3 lead. In 8th.. Bullpen blew it
The odds were very close. I computed the Pirates with a 50.6/49.4 win probability advantage, no play for me.
Even at the opener of -180 the Pirates were overvalued, but it opened that high because of what the line makers know about YOU, the average bettor. LOVE the Pirates. Pirates off a sweep. LOVE home field advantage. LOVE favorites.
As I computed it, it was a tossup game that could have gone either way, and it did the back-and-forth thing until someone won. The odds had nothing to do with the win probability (they never do) because the books new they would be swamped with Pirates money, and had to offset that.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
The odds were very close. I computed the Pirates with a 50.6/49.4 win probability advantage, no play for me.
Even at the opener of -180 the Pirates were overvalued, but it opened that high because of what the line makers know about YOU, the average bettor. LOVE the Pirates. Pirates off a sweep. LOVE home field advantage. LOVE favorites.
As I computed it, it was a tossup game that could have gone either way, and it did the back-and-forth thing until someone won. The odds had nothing to do with the win probability (they never do) because the books new they would be swamped with Pirates money, and had to offset that.
They were not favoured by the oddsmakers at -220 that is what the line became. The oddsmakers set the opening line which was in the -160's.....
What I don't understand how this works is all the books, offshore & Vegas have about same odds across the board. Does this mean people pounded Pit all over the place so everybody raise the odds on Pit? I mean this isn't like football which wise guys could attack weak lines at all different shops & drive up spreads, right? Do books just copy others in following the odds? Is there a one key books everybody uses as like a benchmark index ?
And even at -200, which translates to 66.6 % winning to break even, some people took Pit at this price to drive up odds further north? When Marlins are a pretty good team & they have more than able team to beat you?
Just like Keyelemnt said, this was a toss up game & Kang's error plus bullpen blew the lead. So, who bets on heavy favs like this to drive the odds up, past the reasonable, sensible point?
They were not favoured by the oddsmakers at -220 that is what the line became. The oddsmakers set the opening line which was in the -160's.....
What I don't understand how this works is all the books, offshore & Vegas have about same odds across the board. Does this mean people pounded Pit all over the place so everybody raise the odds on Pit? I mean this isn't like football which wise guys could attack weak lines at all different shops & drive up spreads, right? Do books just copy others in following the odds? Is there a one key books everybody uses as like a benchmark index ?
And even at -200, which translates to 66.6 % winning to break even, some people took Pit at this price to drive up odds further north? When Marlins are a pretty good team & they have more than able team to beat you?
Just like Keyelemnt said, this was a toss up game & Kang's error plus bullpen blew the lead. So, who bets on heavy favs like this to drive the odds up, past the reasonable, sensible point?
The odds were very close. I computed the Pirates with a 50.6/49.4 win probability advantage, no play for me.
Even at the opener of -180 the Pirates were overvalued, but it opened that high because of what the line makers know about YOU, the average bettor. LOVE the Pirates. Pirates off a sweep. LOVE home field advantage. LOVE favorites.
As I computed it, it was a tossup game that could have gone either way, and it did the back-and-forth thing until someone won. The odds had nothing to do with the win probability (they never do) because the books new they would be swamped with Pirates money, and had to offset that.
But do people bet over -200 on a fav? Most everybody seems to go RL in odds over -200.
And this isn't like Kershaw pitching either.
So my point/question is the fact that odds kept on going up meant somebody drove it up & sustained it. I just want to know what the deal is with games like this...
The odds were very close. I computed the Pirates with a 50.6/49.4 win probability advantage, no play for me.
Even at the opener of -180 the Pirates were overvalued, but it opened that high because of what the line makers know about YOU, the average bettor. LOVE the Pirates. Pirates off a sweep. LOVE home field advantage. LOVE favorites.
As I computed it, it was a tossup game that could have gone either way, and it did the back-and-forth thing until someone won. The odds had nothing to do with the win probability (they never do) because the books new they would be swamped with Pirates money, and had to offset that.
But do people bet over -200 on a fav? Most everybody seems to go RL in odds over -200.
And this isn't like Kershaw pitching either.
So my point/question is the fact that odds kept on going up meant somebody drove it up & sustained it. I just want to know what the deal is with games like this...
Cole seemed really stressed. He wanted to do it all by himself, like a 1 man show. Was he on something? I don't know, but it was strange how he was trying to field everything and he even knocked the catcher over while trying to field the ball.
Cole seemed really stressed. He wanted to do it all by himself, like a 1 man show. Was he on something? I don't know, but it was strange how he was trying to field everything and he even knocked the catcher over while trying to field the ball.
you rely too much on stats....you gut instinct is usually the correct one
Not much baseball person but if casual, non-follower like me can spot this anomaly, I was wondering what you guys were thinking.
I think football is more of gut instinct game to predict, so many intangibles & x-factors to make the game almost impossible to predict & then add point spread into the mix, no wonder so many people lose their assss in football every year.
you rely too much on stats....you gut instinct is usually the correct one
Not much baseball person but if casual, non-follower like me can spot this anomaly, I was wondering what you guys were thinking.
I think football is more of gut instinct game to predict, so many intangibles & x-factors to make the game almost impossible to predict & then add point spread into the mix, no wonder so many people lose their assss in football every year.
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