Something interesting stuck out to me this weekend, wanted to run it by you. I'm not the biggest baseball bettor anymore but I still dabble.
For full-disclosure I'm not a beleiver at all in fixes and all that nonsense but I do believe Vegas takes sides, puts out trap lines etc, although I think this occurs much more in football and basketball vs low volume bet sports like baseball.
That said, Saturday's Mets/Marlins game Colon vs Nicolino had a total of 9, while their last several meetings had all been 7 or 7.5 totals. So naturally one would think UNDER is a solid play.
To me this was a trap line so I took the over 9, turned off the game when it was 2-1 after 5. Game ends up going over 6-4 and the Muts have a season-high 15 hits. Its not possible for Vegas to guarantee runs, but if the hits come at the right times, and the game can expect several hits, I can see setting an abnormally high total, which could be a good signal for bettors.
So is this just a coincidence that the Muts have their season high hits on a game where the total was abnormally high? Its like LV knew/expected offensive output this game. Again I don't think trap lines are all that frequent in baseball games but it's almost like LV expected that this game would feature runs and hits.
When you see an odd line like that do you mostly pound the side you think is right or fade your gut because you think trap. Just thought this was interesting appreciate any thoughts/comments.
Something interesting stuck out to me this weekend, wanted to run it by you. I'm not the biggest baseball bettor anymore but I still dabble.
For full-disclosure I'm not a beleiver at all in fixes and all that nonsense but I do believe Vegas takes sides, puts out trap lines etc, although I think this occurs much more in football and basketball vs low volume bet sports like baseball.
That said, Saturday's Mets/Marlins game Colon vs Nicolino had a total of 9, while their last several meetings had all been 7 or 7.5 totals. So naturally one would think UNDER is a solid play.
To me this was a trap line so I took the over 9, turned off the game when it was 2-1 after 5. Game ends up going over 6-4 and the Muts have a season-high 15 hits. Its not possible for Vegas to guarantee runs, but if the hits come at the right times, and the game can expect several hits, I can see setting an abnormally high total, which could be a good signal for bettors.
So is this just a coincidence that the Muts have their season high hits on a game where the total was abnormally high? Its like LV knew/expected offensive output this game. Again I don't think trap lines are all that frequent in baseball games but it's almost like LV expected that this game would feature runs and hits.
When you see an odd line like that do you mostly pound the side you think is right or fade your gut because you think trap. Just thought this was interesting appreciate any thoughts/comments.
Each team's starter for that game was their team's #5. Both have struggled with respect to pitching in low scoring affairs. I suspect that LV took that into consideration the most. OMO
Each team's starter for that game was their team's #5. Both have struggled with respect to pitching in low scoring affairs. I suspect that LV took that into consideration the most. OMO
I get that LV throws out the line based on handicapping but I'm curious what their handicapping is and how they come to certain #'s....Mets also benched a fair amount of their starters that game also.
Seems like it was LV expecting a Nicolino blow up. Yet the pens blew up in this game.
I get that LV throws out the line based on handicapping but I'm curious what their handicapping is and how they come to certain #'s....Mets also benched a fair amount of their starters that game also.
Seems like it was LV expecting a Nicolino blow up. Yet the pens blew up in this game.
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