I had both of these guys wrong in their last outings, but both
performances were out of character and profile. The Twins don’t enjoy being a
doormat and will fight back when they have a fighting chance. Duffey gives them
that with his quality 4-1 start record and the public is jumping the Royals
bandwagon as 62% are looking for the sweep. That distorts the true odds and
makes Duffey much cheaper at -113 than he should be, -131 or more.
Rangers -110, Santiago/Lewis
Lewis is up from the overnight -115, but not nearly as much as he should be.
He is one of this year’s pleasant surprises at 7-2 in both h2h competition and
quality starts. Santiago is disappointing to say the least and the Rangers
should hit the lefty very hard.
Red Sox -182, Bettis/Wright
Again, bettors are coming down on the side of the big bonus bucks on the
dog, when that dog does not have a decent probability of winning. The BoSox are
on a roll and the Rockies need to get out of town.
First 5 Innings, Reds +144,
Straily/Kazmir
This line should be close to even money either way, but bettors hate the
Reds now and still have faith in the Dodgers, who are a good team, but not unbeatable,
and won’t win 62.3% of Kazmir’s starts.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
I had both of these guys wrong in their last outings, but both
performances were out of character and profile. The Twins don’t enjoy being a
doormat and will fight back when they have a fighting chance. Duffey gives them
that with his quality 4-1 start record and the public is jumping the Royals
bandwagon as 62% are looking for the sweep. That distorts the true odds and
makes Duffey much cheaper at -113 than he should be, -131 or more.
Rangers -110, Santiago/Lewis
Lewis is up from the overnight -115, but not nearly as much as he should be.
He is one of this year’s pleasant surprises at 7-2 in both h2h competition and
quality starts. Santiago is disappointing to say the least and the Rangers
should hit the lefty very hard.
Red Sox -182, Bettis/Wright
Again, bettors are coming down on the side of the big bonus bucks on the
dog, when that dog does not have a decent probability of winning. The BoSox are
on a roll and the Rockies need to get out of town.
First 5 Innings, Reds +144,
Straily/Kazmir
This line should be close to even money either way, but bettors hate the
Reds now and still have faith in the Dodgers, who are a good team, but not unbeatable,
and won’t win 62.3% of Kazmir’s starts.
Back at it today Key! BTW LOVED that Ari Pitt over yesterday, a very stress free play, just like I need them
I was thinking about going back to the ChiSox Indians under F5 today with Kluber and Quintana. Quintana is no sale, but is having a tremendous season and Kluber, well, can bring the heat anytime and the Sox aren't doing a very good job offensively lately. How do you se that playing out?
Really like Tex and Cinci today. Will be tailing those and probably will go with BoSox F5 RL.
Back at it today Key! BTW LOVED that Ari Pitt over yesterday, a very stress free play, just like I need them
I was thinking about going back to the ChiSox Indians under F5 today with Kluber and Quintana. Quintana is no sale, but is having a tremendous season and Kluber, well, can bring the heat anytime and the Sox aren't doing a very good job offensively lately. How do you se that playing out?
Really like Tex and Cinci today. Will be tailing those and probably will go with BoSox F5 RL.
love texas got it at -1 +126. Lewis actually has 8 out of 9 quality starts this year and like you said the rangers can hit lefties. .277 against lefties compared to .241 vs righties
love texas got it at -1 +126. Lewis actually has 8 out of 9 quality starts this year and like you said the rangers can hit lefties. .277 against lefties compared to .241 vs righties
Disagree on Wright he seems to pitch better on the road than at home. I think Bettis is live and the better pitcher cashed many times as a dog even beating the Cubs on the road. Obviously Sawks have the power bats. BOL though
Disagree on Wright he seems to pitch better on the road than at home. I think Bettis is live and the better pitcher cashed many times as a dog even beating the Cubs on the road. Obviously Sawks have the power bats. BOL though
Key is there anything in your sports betting approach that divides you into a BUYor SELL only approach?
I guess you could state it that way. If objective analysis says a starter/team is undervalued it doesn't make any difference if it is the Braves at +169 or the Dodgers at -388. The only subjective analysis is "do I agree with the numbers and like it myself?"
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Key is there anything in your sports betting approach that divides you into a BUYor SELL only approach?
I guess you could state it that way. If objective analysis says a starter/team is undervalued it doesn't make any difference if it is the Braves at +169 or the Dodgers at -388. The only subjective analysis is "do I agree with the numbers and like it myself?"
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