This time last week I was 10 games ahead, +14 units. Epic run of fail since. When it's not a solid starter randomly soiling a bed, it's another 1-run loss to a gas can as we leave 15+ runners stranded.
My leans, meanwhile, went 7-0
Tonight's losing pick(s):
Houston Astros (+109) [$300]
Carrasco's pitching great right now, but Keuchel's even better. Cleveland struggle against LHP (1-4 last 5, 3-7 last 10). That's unlikely to change tonight, since Keuchel dominates LHB (.167 BABIP; wOBA .155) and the Indians are predominantly LHB. There's just a huge mismatch in offence, overall, in favor of Houston. I don't know how linesmakers find a +109 price tag here. With such a high win probability, and getting plus odds, this is a rare 'double down' for me.
This time last week I was 10 games ahead, +14 units. Epic run of fail since. When it's not a solid starter randomly soiling a bed, it's another 1-run loss to a gas can as we leave 15+ runners stranded.
My leans, meanwhile, went 7-0
Tonight's losing pick(s):
Houston Astros (+109) [$300]
Carrasco's pitching great right now, but Keuchel's even better. Cleveland struggle against LHP (1-4 last 5, 3-7 last 10). That's unlikely to change tonight, since Keuchel dominates LHB (.167 BABIP; wOBA .155) and the Indians are predominantly LHB. There's just a huge mismatch in offence, overall, in favor of Houston. I don't know how linesmakers find a +109 price tag here. With such a high win probability, and getting plus odds, this is a rare 'double down' for me.
veto: ah okay, yeah maybe. I thought maybe the near no-hitter for Carrasco was the reason. The line makes little sense. But those are the ones we look for, after all
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cjm: if this ones goes the way of the rest this week, I'll be joining you on that break, lol
veto: ah okay, yeah maybe. I thought maybe the near no-hitter for Carrasco was the reason. The line makes little sense. But those are the ones we look for, after all
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cjm: if this ones goes the way of the rest this week, I'll be joining you on that break, lol
This is a line designed to grab your attention; it's too good to be true... The guys setting the lines are smarter than the betting public... 3/4 of wagers on HOU and line barely has moved. Staff aces don't go 25-0, have quality starts every outing and get run support each time out. Just ask Scherzer last week vs Braves and King Felix over the weekend. Baseball is never what it seems. This one has CLE written all over it.
This is a line designed to grab your attention; it's too good to be true... The guys setting the lines are smarter than the betting public... 3/4 of wagers on HOU and line barely has moved. Staff aces don't go 25-0, have quality starts every outing and get run support each time out. Just ask Scherzer last week vs Braves and King Felix over the weekend. Baseball is never what it seems. This one has CLE written all over it.
This is a line designed to grab your attention; it's too good to be true... The guys setting the lines are smarter than the betting public... 3/4 of wagers on HOU and line barely has moved. Staff aces don't go 25-0, have quality starts every outing and get run support each time out. Just ask Scherzer last week vs Braves and King Felix over the weekend. Baseball is never what it seems. This one has CLE written all over it.
I was on Oakland in that game King Felix lost, for very similar reasons I'm on this play. Try not to make betting decisions based on those 'public betting stats' sites -- they don't represent the entire betting market (only a few select sites), and line movements have nothing to do with game probability. It's simply a marketplace, where the price of teams goes up and down as we, the betting market, exert our opinions on it. Bookmakers are middle-men, nothing more.
Things just seem like 'trap bets' in hindsight. The human mind is designed to find patterns where none exist, that's why the myth perpetuates. If I stayed away from games that looked too good to be true, I wouldn't have won with so many juicy dogs this season, nor would I have had my prior winning seasons before this year.
This is a line designed to grab your attention; it's too good to be true... The guys setting the lines are smarter than the betting public... 3/4 of wagers on HOU and line barely has moved. Staff aces don't go 25-0, have quality starts every outing and get run support each time out. Just ask Scherzer last week vs Braves and King Felix over the weekend. Baseball is never what it seems. This one has CLE written all over it.
I was on Oakland in that game King Felix lost, for very similar reasons I'm on this play. Try not to make betting decisions based on those 'public betting stats' sites -- they don't represent the entire betting market (only a few select sites), and line movements have nothing to do with game probability. It's simply a marketplace, where the price of teams goes up and down as we, the betting market, exert our opinions on it. Bookmakers are middle-men, nothing more.
Things just seem like 'trap bets' in hindsight. The human mind is designed to find patterns where none exist, that's why the myth perpetuates. If I stayed away from games that looked too good to be true, I wouldn't have won with so many juicy dogs this season, nor would I have had my prior winning seasons before this year.
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