Brewers: What did I say yesterday? Let’s not get ridiculous? Well, that is exactly what bettors are doing if they think Sanchez and the Tigers stand a 65% or better chance of winning this game. The Tigers and Royals are both receiving a ton of respect today that was warranted a month ago, but not now. The Tigers are just 5-5 their last 10 games and just 4-6 versus right handed starters, averaging just 2.64 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. The Brewers are also 5-5 their last 10 games and versus right handed starters, but are averaging 5.58 offensive earned runs per 9. One team is hitting, the other is not, and Nelson/Sanchez is a tossup.
Reds: Of course we don’t want anything to do with the Royals bullpen, but Cueto versus Ventura first 5? Cueto at +$? You gotta be kidding. The Royals and Tigers are no longer playing 70% winning baseball, which is unsustainable anyway, but bettors are slow to catch on and just love “the better team, at HOME”. The Reds are currently hitting righties just as well as the Royals and I compute Cueto with a line value of 66 cents over Ventura. First 5 innings is a false favorite situation, take the bonus bucks.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Brewers: What did I say yesterday? Let’s not get ridiculous? Well, that is exactly what bettors are doing if they think Sanchez and the Tigers stand a 65% or better chance of winning this game. The Tigers and Royals are both receiving a ton of respect today that was warranted a month ago, but not now. The Tigers are just 5-5 their last 10 games and just 4-6 versus right handed starters, averaging just 2.64 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. The Brewers are also 5-5 their last 10 games and versus right handed starters, but are averaging 5.58 offensive earned runs per 9. One team is hitting, the other is not, and Nelson/Sanchez is a tossup.
Reds: Of course we don’t want anything to do with the Royals bullpen, but Cueto versus Ventura first 5? Cueto at +$? You gotta be kidding. The Royals and Tigers are no longer playing 70% winning baseball, which is unsustainable anyway, but bettors are slow to catch on and just love “the better team, at HOME”. The Reds are currently hitting righties just as well as the Royals and I compute Cueto with a line value of 66 cents over Ventura. First 5 innings is a false favorite situation, take the bonus bucks.
I def think there is a lot of value w the Brewers and Nelson, but I find it hard to believe the Tigers will lose 3 in a row plus Sanchez may be finding his groove.
Love Cueto 1st 5.....reds pig pen vs royals gold standard pen, huge mismatch
I def think there is a lot of value w the Brewers and Nelson, but I find it hard to believe the Tigers will lose 3 in a row plus Sanchez may be finding his groove.
Love Cueto 1st 5.....reds pig pen vs royals gold standard pen, huge mismatch
GLT .....I was leaning towards the under first 5 against cueto. I really like this guy and he is an under machine. I don't think they can score that many against him
GLT .....I was leaning towards the under first 5 against cueto. I really like this guy and he is an under machine. I don't think they can score that many against him
MrShowtime: Sanchez looked good his last game, but his history is up and down like a yo-yo. The same can be said of Nelson, but if the up-down history holds he is due to be up and Sanchez down. Neither is Mr Consistency, but there is no way to make the Tigers a huge favorite tonight. Sometimes it takes big brass ones to collect the gold.
Surprised Cueto is not getting hammered first 5 innings but since the 9 inning line carries the freight, it is probably following the Royals rise there. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
MrShowtime: Sanchez looked good his last game, but his history is up and down like a yo-yo. The same can be said of Nelson, but if the up-down history holds he is due to be up and Sanchez down. Neither is Mr Consistency, but there is no way to make the Tigers a huge favorite tonight. Sometimes it takes big brass ones to collect the gold.
Surprised Cueto is not getting hammered first 5 innings but since the 9 inning line carries the freight, it is probably following the Royals rise there. BOL
you basically had the same argument for the Twins 5 days ago against the Tigers and they got rocked 13-1...
Of course you conveniently forget they got hand cuffed by Ricky Nolasco the day before. So what is your contention? That today is their day to hit this week?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
you basically had the same argument for the Twins 5 days ago against the Tigers and they got rocked 13-1...
Of course you conveniently forget they got hand cuffed by Ricky Nolasco the day before. So what is your contention? That today is their day to hit this week?
you basically had the same argument for the Twins 5 days ago against the Tigers and they got rocked 13-1...
when you play big dogs like this, you only need them to hit 3 out of 8 to make money (i.e., you lose the game more often than you win).
When you're evaluating "mispriced" lines you average out the difference over the long-run (not each day with one pick).
Losing a dog at +170 is no different in terms of losing a heavy favorite at -200, for that matter. You just can't lose that bet more than 37% of the time for the dog or more than 33% of the time for the heavy favorite.
you basically had the same argument for the Twins 5 days ago against the Tigers and they got rocked 13-1...
when you play big dogs like this, you only need them to hit 3 out of 8 to make money (i.e., you lose the game more often than you win).
When you're evaluating "mispriced" lines you average out the difference over the long-run (not each day with one pick).
Losing a dog at +170 is no different in terms of losing a heavy favorite at -200, for that matter. You just can't lose that bet more than 37% of the time for the dog or more than 33% of the time for the heavy favorite.
The Tigers have decided to put VMart on the DL and against RH pitching that was basically a sure out in the heart of their order.
Also, this pitcher for the Brewers is HORRIBLE! He is 3-12 as a starter and no wins in his last 6 outings. Sanchez on the other hand doesnt lose at home against the National League and quality wise he is a 1000% better.
Lastly, the Tigers lost yesterday BUT they had the Sunday night game the night before and had to fly home to play the very next day, so I kind of give them a pass for yesterday because of that.
The Tigers have decided to put VMart on the DL and against RH pitching that was basically a sure out in the heart of their order.
Also, this pitcher for the Brewers is HORRIBLE! He is 3-12 as a starter and no wins in his last 6 outings. Sanchez on the other hand doesnt lose at home against the National League and quality wise he is a 1000% better.
Lastly, the Tigers lost yesterday BUT they had the Sunday night game the night before and had to fly home to play the very next day, so I kind of give them a pass for yesterday because of that.
Also, this pitcher for the Brewers is HORRIBLE! He is 3-12 as a starter and no wins in his last 6 outings. Sanchez on the other hand doesnt lose at home against the National League and quality wise he is a 1000% better.
There is more to a headline ERA or W/L record when evaluating a pitcher's performance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, which is more reflective of a low 3s ERA over the long-run. He plays for a bad team, and one that had been without a healthy/performing lineup as well so it is no surprise that he didn't get the W in many games.
On the flip side, the Tigers have only won 3 of Sanchez's 8 starts (38%), yet he is favored at a greater than 60% of winning. Lastly, Sanchez only had two home starts vs. NL teams over the last 2.5 years. Yes, he won them both, but does that really mean anything for today. Sanchez should be well inside -150 for this game, IMO.
Also, this pitcher for the Brewers is HORRIBLE! He is 3-12 as a starter and no wins in his last 6 outings. Sanchez on the other hand doesnt lose at home against the National League and quality wise he is a 1000% better.
There is more to a headline ERA or W/L record when evaluating a pitcher's performance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, which is more reflective of a low 3s ERA over the long-run. He plays for a bad team, and one that had been without a healthy/performing lineup as well so it is no surprise that he didn't get the W in many games.
On the flip side, the Tigers have only won 3 of Sanchez's 8 starts (38%), yet he is favored at a greater than 60% of winning. Lastly, Sanchez only had two home starts vs. NL teams over the last 2.5 years. Yes, he won them both, but does that really mean anything for today. Sanchez should be well inside -150 for this game, IMO.
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