haven't been able to update YTD records today…. will update next time out
Yesterday: 0-2 (-2 units)
NLCS Game 5:
The fan in me will be rooting for my boys to bring it home and extend the series at least 1 game. The bettor in me says the line is about 20 points rich for SF (according to my approach). There are reasons to bet on SF tonight: (i) they are giving the Cards fits and capitalizing on every mistake, (ii) i give the starting pitching edge to Bumgarner tonight, (iii) edge to the Giants' bullpen, and (iv) they are playing at home with a chance to clinch the NL pennant. I believe the Giants win this game more than 50% of the time, but I believe the true probability is closer to 50% than it is to north 60% (-150 line implies a 60% probability).
I know Wainwright hasn't been himself and Bumgarner shut the Cards down in game 1. Plus, Molina is out, which would normally be a big minus as he does wonders for the pitching staff. However, Wainwright is comfortable w/ Cruz, the Cardinals have gotten to Bumgarner before, and this team did beat Kershaw twice in the NLDS. I will give this hot offense (STL) a shot at this price. This team is tough and will not roll over tonight. I also like the over F5 (i arrived at an expected O/U just north of 7 FG).
Only wagering 1.50% of Bankroll between the two plays, given the minimal line value.
St. Louis Cardinals (A. Wainwright) FG, +140 --- 0.75% of Bankroll
St. Louis (A. Wainwright) / San Francisco (M. Bumgarner) Over 3 F5, +100 --- 0.75% of Bankroll
haven't been able to update YTD records today…. will update next time out
Yesterday: 0-2 (-2 units)
NLCS Game 5:
The fan in me will be rooting for my boys to bring it home and extend the series at least 1 game. The bettor in me says the line is about 20 points rich for SF (according to my approach). There are reasons to bet on SF tonight: (i) they are giving the Cards fits and capitalizing on every mistake, (ii) i give the starting pitching edge to Bumgarner tonight, (iii) edge to the Giants' bullpen, and (iv) they are playing at home with a chance to clinch the NL pennant. I believe the Giants win this game more than 50% of the time, but I believe the true probability is closer to 50% than it is to north 60% (-150 line implies a 60% probability).
I know Wainwright hasn't been himself and Bumgarner shut the Cards down in game 1. Plus, Molina is out, which would normally be a big minus as he does wonders for the pitching staff. However, Wainwright is comfortable w/ Cruz, the Cardinals have gotten to Bumgarner before, and this team did beat Kershaw twice in the NLDS. I will give this hot offense (STL) a shot at this price. This team is tough and will not roll over tonight. I also like the over F5 (i arrived at an expected O/U just north of 7 FG).
Only wagering 1.50% of Bankroll between the two plays, given the minimal line value.
St. Louis Cardinals (A. Wainwright) FG, +140 --- 0.75% of Bankroll
St. Louis (A. Wainwright) / San Francisco (M. Bumgarner) Over 3 F5, +100 --- 0.75% of Bankroll
Bingo. If you have followed me during the season you know I have bet against the Cardinals quite often (I pick my spots). As a fan I will always hope, but I will never let my being a fan interfere with making - what I feel are - sound bets that present value when repeated several times over.
Bingo. If you have followed me during the season you know I have bet against the Cardinals quite often (I pick my spots). As a fan I will always hope, but I will never let my being a fan interfere with making - what I feel are - sound bets that present value when repeated several times over.
Play On Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (ST LOUIS) poor
baserunning team - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season
against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his
last 3 starts
34-24 over the last 5 seasons. 58.6% (24.1 units) ............................................................................................................ Can't say i agree with St.L , I parlayed S.F. with N.Eng tonight
Play On Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (ST LOUIS) poor
baserunning team - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season
against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his
last 3 starts
34-24 over the last 5 seasons. 58.6% (24.1 units) ............................................................................................................ Can't say i agree with St.L , I parlayed S.F. with N.Eng tonight
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