I normally do this in my daily threads (at the end of the day), but I was on vacation all week and just got back today. Pumped to get back on the grind for the final month.
some good looking dogs tomorrow…
Minnesota Twins (P. Hughes), ML +130
Hughes: 8-4 w/ 2.94 ERA in 13 starts on the road; 9-1 in day games (3.73 ERA); beat Baltimore earlier this season at home.
Gausman: 4-4 w/ 4.40 ERA in 8 starts at home; 2-5 in day games with a 5.13 ERA
I feel more comfortable w/ F5, but I might take a shot FG.
Pittsburgh (G. Cole)/St. Louis (L. Lynn) Over 7 +100
Everyone will be thinking under for this matchup. Two teams in playoff contention with dominant righties on the mound. Plus, these two just faced off last week in a relatively low scoring affair (8?). However, there is something that might be overlooked. Lance Lynn is a different pitcher in day games vs. night games (1-2 runs higher in day games). Same goes for Cole.
Lynn
Day: 4.88 ERA (2012); 4.58 ERA (2013); 5.56 ERA (2014)
Night: 2.96 ERA (2012); 3.83 ERA (2013); 2.07 ERA (2014)
Cole
Day: 4.28 ERA (2013); 4.22 ERA (2014)
Night: 2.68 ERA (2013); 3.38 ERA (2014)
Assuming both pitchers go 6 innings, you're looking at an expected run total of about 6 through 6 innings. Neither bullpen has been lights out. I like the over here.
I am going to hold off for a bit in hopes that we get 6.5, and I will look for a F5 total of 3.5 tomorrow as well.
Philadelphia Phillies (C Hamels), ML +133
I will most likely play F5 Phillies and the Under 6.5 (-110). Should be a good pitching duel and the Phillies have been playing good baseball lately (7-3 last 10 game).
New York Mets (Z. Wheeler)/Miami Marlins (H. Alvarez) Under 7 -110
Full game ML is +110 for the Mets. If I can get F5 at plus money, I will likely jump on it. Wheeler has dominated the Marlins. Alvarez has had quite a bit of success vs. the Mets, so the under is definitely the play I like more.
Seattle Mariners (C. Young), ML +128
Like the pitching match-up and the A's have really been struggling offensively… Young's style suits the dimensions at Oakland. I would lean under also, but Hammel has been all over the place as of late. I trust the Seattle bats more than Oakland's bats, so I like the FG money line best.
Washington (G. Gonzalez)/Los Angeles (R. Hernandez) Under 7 -110
Dodgers tend to struggle versus lefties and Gonzalez has dominated their lineup. I also like the Nationals ML (-107).