Going with a new format to highlight my approach. Sometimes the number of picks are hard to review in full, but when viewed in the context of evaluating a game and spreading a view out over multiple picks it becomes less daunting.
Friday's Card *** 8/22/2014 ***
Seattle Mariners (F Hernandez) @ Boston Red Sox (J Kelly)
King Felix vs. Joe Kelly and this line wasn't in the context of -200? I said in last night's thread that this line was way off and that I expected it to be north of -185 when I locked it in.
The Mariners have won 7 of their last 10 (.700) and are 12-6 (.666) thus far in the month of August. The Red Sox were just swept at home, dropping 4 in a row to the Angels, and are 8-11 (.421) in the month of August. Boston's offense is in a funk, having scored only 9 runs over their last 5 games, and Hernandez is not the guy you want to see on the mound when you're struggling to plate runs.
This is a high line, but I jumped on it since I felt it was mispriced and it looks like my intuition was correct. I could monetize, by taking the Red Sox @ +180, and earn a riskless profit of ~2.3%, but I am going to let it ride tonight.
Side: Seattle Mariners (F Hernandez) FG, -167 --- 1.50% of Bankroll (POD)
Total: No Pick / No Lean
Baltimore Orioles (K Gausman) @ Chicago Cubs (J Arrieta)
Despite the fact that I am very high on Gausman, I give the starting pitching advantage to the Cubs (Arrieta) in this match-up. I do, however, give the Orioles a significant advantage in offensive production (particularly versus right-handed pitching), an edge in the bullpen department, and the Orioles are playing great baseball (21-10 since the all-star break). Both pitchers have shown a proclivity to keeping the run scoring to a minimum for the first 5 innings. Gausman has given up 1 or fewer runs in 4 of his 6 road starts, while Arrieta has given up 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 8 home starts.
Side: Baltimore Orioles FG, +102 --- 1.50% of Bankroll
Total: Under 4 F5, -120 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
San Francisco Giants (T Hudson) @ Washington Nationals (D Fister)
Some will be timid to back the Nationals since they have won 10 straight. The streak has to end sometime, right? Fister is pitching great this season and the Nationals are 14-4 in his 18 starts on the season (7-1 in his 8 home starts). Hudson has struggled as of late, but he has had quite a bit of success against the Nationals in the past and held them to 1 unearned on 6 hits at San Francisco back in June. We have two pitchers with great command, who can get batters out without striking them out (i.e., finesse pitchers). Hudson walks about 1 batter per 6 innings, while Fister is walking 1 batter per 8 innings. I expect this one to be a low scoring affair and give the edge to the Nationals.
Side: Washington Nationals FG, -142 --- 1.50% of Bankroll
Total: Under 7 FG, -110 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's (S Gray)
Going against Gray at home is not for the faint hearted bettor. But, the A's have been struggling to score runs and Gray hasn't been in top form, giving up 12 earned runs over his last 16 innings of work. I fear that fatigue is setting in for Gray. Plus, the Angels were able to play 3 runs in 6 innings against Gray at Oakland earlier this season.
Santiago, on the other hand, has been pitching much better. In his last 5 starts, he has given up only 5 earned runs (1.63 ERA). He has held Oakland to 1 earned run on 8 hits over 13 innings in 2 starts this season.
The Angels are coming off a 4 game sweep of Boston and have won 8 of their last 10 games (12-7 in August). The A's have lost 8 of their last 10 games (8-11 in August).
Side: Los Angeles Angels FG, +150 --- 1.50% of Bankroll
Total: Under 7.5 FG, -115 --- 1.00% of Bankroll