Picks of the Day Record YTD: 42-23-7 (65%) *** +19.20% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 12-7-3 (63%) RL: 3-4 (43%) O/U: 17-6-4 (74%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/5/2014 Record: 6-5-1 (55%) Risked / To Win: 12.00 Units / 11.45 Units (avg. line of -105) Profit: -1.09 Units / -$27.30 Return on Risk: -9.08% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101926369
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$25 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $75,325 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 42-23-7 (65%) *** +19.20% Return on Risk *** ML: 10-6 (63%) F5: 12-7-3 (63%) RL: 3-4 (43%) O/U: 17-6-4 (74%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/5/2014 Record: 6-5-1 (55%) Risked / To Win: 12.00 Units / 11.45 Units (avg. line of -105) Profit: -1.09 Units / -$27.30 Return on Risk: -9.08% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101926369
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$25 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $75,325 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
So many close outcomes last night. Too bad most of them were at odds with my card. Been a crazy last week or two with that.
I
put a lot of thought into the Angels/Dodgers game yesterday, so it was a
bummer to not hit the ML wager at +230. But, at least I hit 2 of the 3
bets for that game (net positive).
Wednesday's Card *** 8/6/2014 ***
No time for writeups on most of these today. Busy day for me.
I may add a few more later this afternoon. We'll see.
Sides Atlanta Braves F5 (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Atlanta Braves ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Notable
pitching advantage for the Braves here. It's worth noting that the
Braves have lost 7 in a row, scoring only 15 runs over that span.
However, this will be Seattle's first time seeing Teheran and some of
the Braves (e.g., Upton) have had some success vs. Young in the past.
I
will bite on this line and spread my risk out between F5 and FG.
Stronger lean on F5 and give the advantage to Seattle if it's tied or a
1-run game after the 6th inning.
Oakland A's -0.5 F5 (-120) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Oakland A's -1.5 RL (+110) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Sonny Gray! The A's are 15-7 in his starts this year, and have won 7 of his last 8 starts (6 of them by 2+ runs).
Cincinnati Reds ML (+101) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Baltimore Orioles ML (-110) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Orioles
are red hot right now. Those bats are just getting it done and Chen has
been very good lately. The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts, and
they have won 11 of their last 14 games overall. Hutchinson is coming
off a rough July, where he posted an ERA of 6.53 in 6 starts. This will
be the Orioles' 4th time seeing him this year, while Chen has yet to
start vs. Toronto this season.
Chicago Cubs F5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll I
rarely bet on the Cubs now that their rotation has been shuffled quite a
bit... but the Cubs are playing good ball (6-2 over their last 8), and
the Cubs are 10-6 in Arrieta's 16 starts this season. Arrieta looked
great against the Rockies in his last start and - while there is some
concern over the lineup getting another look so soon - I expect him to
outpitch his counterpart tonight.
Totals Tampa Bay/Oakland Under 7.5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
run total has exceeded 7 runs in only 1 of Gray's last 6 home starts,
and in only 8 of his 22 starts overall (26%). Hellickson had a rough
outing vs. the Angels his last time out, but the A's bats have been
pretty quiet the last 5 games or so. Bought 1/2 for 25 points to ensure a
win if the total hits 7 runs.
Texas/Chicago Over 3.5 F5 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Atlanta/Seattle Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
run total has exceeded 7 runs in only 7 of Teheran"s 23 start (30%),
and in only 7 of Young's 21 starts (33%). Neither of these teams are
hitting much lately either.
Boston/St. Louis Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll I
hawked the F5 lines until I could buy down 1/2 a run and feel like I
got a steal on this one. I'd be very surprised to see this line hold.
Kelly has given up 4+ runs (F5) in 3 of his lat 4 starts, which Miller
has given up 2+ runs (F5) in 3 of his last 5 starts. I like the over on 4
as well, as long as it stays inside of -120 (currently -105).
So many close outcomes last night. Too bad most of them were at odds with my card. Been a crazy last week or two with that.
I
put a lot of thought into the Angels/Dodgers game yesterday, so it was a
bummer to not hit the ML wager at +230. But, at least I hit 2 of the 3
bets for that game (net positive).
Wednesday's Card *** 8/6/2014 ***
No time for writeups on most of these today. Busy day for me.
I may add a few more later this afternoon. We'll see.
Sides Atlanta Braves F5 (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Atlanta Braves ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Notable
pitching advantage for the Braves here. It's worth noting that the
Braves have lost 7 in a row, scoring only 15 runs over that span.
However, this will be Seattle's first time seeing Teheran and some of
the Braves (e.g., Upton) have had some success vs. Young in the past.
I
will bite on this line and spread my risk out between F5 and FG.
Stronger lean on F5 and give the advantage to Seattle if it's tied or a
1-run game after the 6th inning.
Oakland A's -0.5 F5 (-120) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Oakland A's -1.5 RL (+110) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Sonny Gray! The A's are 15-7 in his starts this year, and have won 7 of his last 8 starts (6 of them by 2+ runs).
Cincinnati Reds ML (+101) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Baltimore Orioles ML (-110) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Orioles
are red hot right now. Those bats are just getting it done and Chen has
been very good lately. The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last 5 starts, and
they have won 11 of their last 14 games overall. Hutchinson is coming
off a rough July, where he posted an ERA of 6.53 in 6 starts. This will
be the Orioles' 4th time seeing him this year, while Chen has yet to
start vs. Toronto this season.
Chicago Cubs F5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll I
rarely bet on the Cubs now that their rotation has been shuffled quite a
bit... but the Cubs are playing good ball (6-2 over their last 8), and
the Cubs are 10-6 in Arrieta's 16 starts this season. Arrieta looked
great against the Rockies in his last start and - while there is some
concern over the lineup getting another look so soon - I expect him to
outpitch his counterpart tonight.
Totals Tampa Bay/Oakland Under 7.5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
run total has exceeded 7 runs in only 1 of Gray's last 6 home starts,
and in only 8 of his 22 starts overall (26%). Hellickson had a rough
outing vs. the Angels his last time out, but the A's bats have been
pretty quiet the last 5 games or so. Bought 1/2 for 25 points to ensure a
win if the total hits 7 runs.
Texas/Chicago Over 3.5 F5 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Atlanta/Seattle Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
run total has exceeded 7 runs in only 7 of Teheran"s 23 start (30%),
and in only 7 of Young's 21 starts (33%). Neither of these teams are
hitting much lately either.
Boston/St. Louis Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll I
hawked the F5 lines until I could buy down 1/2 a run and feel like I
got a steal on this one. I'd be very surprised to see this line hold.
Kelly has given up 4+ runs (F5) in 3 of his lat 4 starts, which Miller
has given up 2+ runs (F5) in 3 of his last 5 starts. I like the over on 4
as well, as long as it stays inside of -120 (currently -105).
Two tough umpires on the day game unders. Low in the K's, high in the walks but the way these four teams are not scoring runs it should trump the concerns...still deciding on those and everything today.
Like Balty again, had them yesterday and will probably ride again today.
Cubbies are screaming to play them and I haven't bit yet but man they seem solid today.
Two tough umpires on the day game unders. Low in the K's, high in the walks but the way these four teams are not scoring runs it should trump the concerns...still deciding on those and everything today.
Like Balty again, had them yesterday and will probably ride again today.
Cubbies are screaming to play them and I haven't bit yet but man they seem solid today.
two runners caught stealing, Chicago lined/grounded out into 3 double plays. When Tepesch gets through 5 innings without giving up a run, you know the offense is really struggling.
That stinks. Hopefully better results in the next series of games here. Neither Teheran nor Gray are looking too sharp so far.
two runners caught stealing, Chicago lined/grounded out into 3 double plays. When Tepesch gets through 5 innings without giving up a run, you know the offense is really struggling.
That stinks. Hopefully better results in the next series of games here. Neither Teheran nor Gray are looking too sharp so far.
my goodness… Teheran and Gray both having awful starts. Can't believe Teheran came back and gave up 4 runs after the Braves gave him a 3-1 lead there. I haven't seen Gray struggle this much with his command before either.
well fellas - it's looking like my card blows today. very disappointing.
my goodness… Teheran and Gray both having awful starts. Can't believe Teheran came back and gave up 4 runs after the Braves gave him a 3-1 lead there. I haven't seen Gray struggle this much with his command before either.
well fellas - it's looking like my card blows today. very disappointing.
I am off to a perfect 0'fer so far today. But, that won't stop me from putting on the other two picks I was looking at earlier.
Los Angeles Angels ML (-144) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Fading Dan Haren and backing the Angels who have been money at home. Surprisingly, Shoemaker as been very good at home and the Angels are 6-3 in his home starts. Haren, on the hand, has been beyond awful.
Detroit Tigers ML (+104) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers Over 4 (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
I told myself I would take the Tigers as the side play if they hit + money (just did). It's not that I think Verlander is great. He has been pretty dreadful, albeit better as of late. His breaking pitches actually looked very good his last outing. I just think the Tigers hit lefties VERY well and that Capuano is just that bad. I am taking the over on the Tigers team total - in addition to the ML - in case Verlander competes with Capuano for who can give up the most runs.
I am off to a perfect 0'fer so far today. But, that won't stop me from putting on the other two picks I was looking at earlier.
Los Angeles Angels ML (-144) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Fading Dan Haren and backing the Angels who have been money at home. Surprisingly, Shoemaker as been very good at home and the Angels are 6-3 in his home starts. Haren, on the hand, has been beyond awful.
Detroit Tigers ML (+104) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers Over 4 (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
I told myself I would take the Tigers as the side play if they hit + money (just did). It's not that I think Verlander is great. He has been pretty dreadful, albeit better as of late. His breaking pitches actually looked very good his last outing. I just think the Tigers hit lefties VERY well and that Capuano is just that bad. I am taking the over on the Tigers team total - in addition to the ML - in case Verlander competes with Capuano for who can give up the most runs.
I gotta say, August has been a wagering disaster for my bankroll thus far. Trying to keep my chin up. Tonight will be the true test. If Haren somehow holds his own all of a sudden against the potent Angels lineup, then I know my luck is in the dumps.
I gotta say, August has been a wagering disaster for my bankroll thus far. Trying to keep my chin up. Tonight will be the true test. If Haren somehow holds his own all of a sudden against the potent Angels lineup, then I know my luck is in the dumps.
Yeah, been a pretty awful day for me. I try not to get too high over awesome days or too low over bad days, but today has been rough. Hoping the rest of the night goes well. Otherwise, it's back on track tomorrow.
Yeah, been a pretty awful day for me. I try not to get too high over awesome days or too low over bad days, but today has been rough. Hoping the rest of the night goes well. Otherwise, it's back on track tomorrow.
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