Picks of the Day Record YTD: 21-9-1 (70%) *** +38.05% Return on Risk *** ML: 5-2 (71%) F5: 6-2-0 (75%) RL: 1-2 (33%) O/U: 9-3-1 (75%)
Yesterday's Results, 7/24/2014 Record: 6-3-1 (67%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 9.59 Units (avg. line of -104) Profit: +2.86 Units / +$55.61 Return on Risk: +28.59% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101921343
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$23 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $66,023 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 21-9-1 (70%) *** +38.05% Return on Risk *** ML: 5-2 (71%) F5: 6-2-0 (75%) RL: 1-2 (33%) O/U: 9-3-1 (75%)
Yesterday's Results, 7/24/2014 Record: 6-3-1 (67%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 9.59 Units (avg. line of -104) Profit: +2.86 Units / +$55.61 Return on Risk: +28.59% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101921343
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$23 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $66,023 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Started
my write-ups, but now I have to redirect my focus to something else for
a few hours... I assure you I carefully evaluated each of these plays
independently, as usual. I hope to get a few write-ups later this
afternoon for my PODs.
Sides
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-133) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Cubs
have trouble vs. righties and Joe Kelly has absolutely dominated the
Cubs since last year. Wood is vastly overrated, in my opinion, and has
really been struggling as of late giving up 3+ runs in each of his last 6
starts.
Washington Nationals ML (-118) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll The
Nationals are 11-8 (58%) in Roark's 19 starts this year, including 6-2
over his last 8 starts. Since June 1st, Roark is 6-3 with a 2.31
ERA/1.15 WHIP. The Reds are currently plagued by the injury bug and are
without both Votto and Phillips. Simon is having a great season - and
the Reds are 15-4 in his 19 starts - but the Reds are struggling to
score runs right now. They've now lost 6 games in a row since the break,
while scoring only 12 runs (2 runs/game). The Nationals have won 6 of
their last 8 games, have the better bullpen, and have the better lineup.
This is a great line for a contending team going up against a
struggling team with a depleted lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Houston Astros F5 (-123) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
Totals
Great week so far on run totals; 12-2 on O/U wagers!
Arizona/Philadelphia Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit/Los Angeles Over 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
New York/Milwaukee Under 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
San Diego/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Started
my write-ups, but now I have to redirect my focus to something else for
a few hours... I assure you I carefully evaluated each of these plays
independently, as usual. I hope to get a few write-ups later this
afternoon for my PODs.
Sides
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-133) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Cubs
have trouble vs. righties and Joe Kelly has absolutely dominated the
Cubs since last year. Wood is vastly overrated, in my opinion, and has
really been struggling as of late giving up 3+ runs in each of his last 6
starts.
Washington Nationals ML (-118) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll The
Nationals are 11-8 (58%) in Roark's 19 starts this year, including 6-2
over his last 8 starts. Since June 1st, Roark is 6-3 with a 2.31
ERA/1.15 WHIP. The Reds are currently plagued by the injury bug and are
without both Votto and Phillips. Simon is having a great season - and
the Reds are 15-4 in his 19 starts - but the Reds are struggling to
score runs right now. They've now lost 6 games in a row since the break,
while scoring only 12 runs (2 runs/game). The Nationals have won 6 of
their last 8 games, have the better bullpen, and have the better lineup.
This is a great line for a contending team going up against a
struggling team with a depleted lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Houston Astros F5 (-123) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll
Totals
Great week so far on run totals; 12-2 on O/U wagers!
Arizona/Philadelphia Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit/Los Angeles Over 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
New York/Milwaukee Under 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
San Diego/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
I am sitting here waiting and hoping for Milwaukee/Mets to move to 8 with my guy. It is steadily moved up on the juice and it is 7.5 over -120. I will probably still play it at that number but really would love to 8. Played the San Diego under at 7 last night. Best of luck.
I am sitting here waiting and hoping for Milwaukee/Mets to move to 8 with my guy. It is steadily moved up on the juice and it is 7.5 over -120. I will probably still play it at that number but really would love to 8. Played the San Diego under at 7 last night. Best of luck.
Friday's Card *** 7/25/2014 ***Started my write-ups, but now I have to redirect my focus to something else for a few hours... I assure you I carefully evaluated each of these plays independently, as usual. I hope to get a few write-ups later this afternoon for my PODs.SidesSt. Louis Cardinals ML (-133) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollCubs have trouble vs. righties and Joe Kelly has absolutely dominated the Cubs since last year. Wood is vastly overrated, in my opinion, and has really been struggling as of late giving up 3+ runs in each of his last 6 starts.Washington Nationals ML (-118) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollThe Nationals are 11-8 (58%) in Roark's 19 starts this year, including 6-2 over his last 8 starts. Since June 1st, Roark is 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA/1.15 WHIP. The Reds are currently plagued by the injury bug and are without both Votto and Phillips. Simon is having a great season - and the Reds are 15-4 in his 19 starts - but the Reds are struggling to score runs right now. They've now lost 6 games in a row since the break, while scoring only 12 runs (2 runs/game). The Nationals have won 6 of their last 8 games, have the better bullpen, and have the better lineup. This is a great line for a contending team going up against a struggling team with a depleted lineup.Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollHouston Astros F5 (-123) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollLos Angeles Dodgers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of BankrollLos Angeles Dodgers ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of BankrollTotalsGreat week so far on run totals; 12-2 on O/U wagers!Arizona/Philadelphia Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollDetroit/Los Angeles Over 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollNew York/Milwaukee Under 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollSan Diego/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Agree with almost all your picks. I was just asking some people on here why they would "love!!" The cubs. I dont see it, I see cards one of better bets of day. Im still waiting to hear what they have to say. Anyway great picks GL2U
Friday's Card *** 7/25/2014 ***Started my write-ups, but now I have to redirect my focus to something else for a few hours... I assure you I carefully evaluated each of these plays independently, as usual. I hope to get a few write-ups later this afternoon for my PODs.SidesSt. Louis Cardinals ML (-133) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollCubs have trouble vs. righties and Joe Kelly has absolutely dominated the Cubs since last year. Wood is vastly overrated, in my opinion, and has really been struggling as of late giving up 3+ runs in each of his last 6 starts.Washington Nationals ML (-118) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollThe Nationals are 11-8 (58%) in Roark's 19 starts this year, including 6-2 over his last 8 starts. Since June 1st, Roark is 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA/1.15 WHIP. The Reds are currently plagued by the injury bug and are without both Votto and Phillips. Simon is having a great season - and the Reds are 15-4 in his 19 starts - but the Reds are struggling to score runs right now. They've now lost 6 games in a row since the break, while scoring only 12 runs (2 runs/game). The Nationals have won 6 of their last 8 games, have the better bullpen, and have the better lineup. This is a great line for a contending team going up against a struggling team with a depleted lineup.Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollHouston Astros F5 (-123) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of BankrollLos Angeles Dodgers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of BankrollLos Angeles Dodgers ML (-115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of BankrollTotalsGreat week so far on run totals; 12-2 on O/U wagers!Arizona/Philadelphia Over 3.5 F5 (-130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollDetroit/Los Angeles Over 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollNew York/Milwaukee Under 8 (-120) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of BankrollSan Diego/Atlanta Under 7 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Agree with almost all your picks. I was just asking some people on here why they would "love!!" The cubs. I dont see it, I see cards one of better bets of day. Im still waiting to hear what they have to say. Anyway great picks GL2U
Nats are on rest and Reds are injured. If it's based on "All-Star starter" Simon, then since he's on my direct fade list I would give -130 on the Nats. If you don't like Roark as a pitcher, you should take over 7.5 because I got the Nats getting hits off Simon. His garbage won't corkscrew tonight and the fences are short
Nats are on rest and Reds are injured. If it's based on "All-Star starter" Simon, then since he's on my direct fade list I would give -130 on the Nats. If you don't like Roark as a pitcher, you should take over 7.5 because I got the Nats getting hits off Simon. His garbage won't corkscrew tonight and the fences are short
Nats are on rest and Reds are injured. If it's based on "All-Star starter" Simon, then since he's on my direct fade list I would give -130 on the Nats. If you don't like Roark as a pitcher, you should take over 7.5 because I got the Nats getting hits off Simon. His garbage won't corkscrew tonight and the fences are short
I go through the pitchers at the break as it sounds like you do to and Simon was at the top of my most likely to regress list. He cooperated his first start out of the break.
Nats are on rest and Reds are injured. If it's based on "All-Star starter" Simon, then since he's on my direct fade list I would give -130 on the Nats. If you don't like Roark as a pitcher, you should take over 7.5 because I got the Nats getting hits off Simon. His garbage won't corkscrew tonight and the fences are short
I go through the pitchers at the break as it sounds like you do to and Simon was at the top of my most likely to regress list. He cooperated his first start out of the break.
I can think of a few reasons, some good and some not so good:
(i) The Reds have lost 6 in a row and many bettors are probably wagering simply against them losing a 7th consecutive game. Not a good reason.
(ii) The Reds have won in 15 of Simon's 19 starts. Good reason. But, not having Phillips or Votto hurts. The Reds' offense has been sputtering along.
(iii) Simon held the Nationals to 1 run over 7 innings at Washington and the Reds won that game. Not a good reason… That lineup was missing... LaRoche, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Harper. Zimmerman is on the DL, but I expect the other guys to be in.
I can think of a few reasons, some good and some not so good:
(i) The Reds have lost 6 in a row and many bettors are probably wagering simply against them losing a 7th consecutive game. Not a good reason.
(ii) The Reds have won in 15 of Simon's 19 starts. Good reason. But, not having Phillips or Votto hurts. The Reds' offense has been sputtering along.
(iii) Simon held the Nationals to 1 run over 7 innings at Washington and the Reds won that game. Not a good reason… That lineup was missing... LaRoche, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Harper. Zimmerman is on the DL, but I expect the other guys to be in.
Yeah, I don't really care about the reason. I just snapped up the number also at -119 and it's going up. Misprice due to Simon. Also booked over f5 at sick price.
Yeah, I don't really care about the reason. I just snapped up the number also at -119 and it's going up. Misprice due to Simon. Also booked over f5 at sick price.
the f5 total can fluctuate from book to book but I took it at 4 +105. If you like it you can find it at 3.5 -120. Roark is also a fade candidate. The weather is not going to like pitching in Cincy tonight. The total is 8 at some books and 7.5 at others. I have it at 7.5 -110.
the f5 total can fluctuate from book to book but I took it at 4 +105. If you like it you can find it at 3.5 -120. Roark is also a fade candidate. The weather is not going to like pitching in Cincy tonight. The total is 8 at some books and 7.5 at others. I have it at 7.5 -110.
Zimmerman is out for the Nats and they are 34-19 with him in the line up. They are an under.500 team without him at 21-25. That speaks loads as to how much he is worth to this team
Zimmerman is out for the Nats and they are 34-19 with him in the line up. They are an under.500 team without him at 21-25. That speaks loads as to how much he is worth to this team
the f5 total can fluctuate from book to book but I took it at 4 +105. If you like it you can find it at 3.5 -120. Roark is also a fade candidate. The weather is not going to like pitching in Cincy tonight. The total is 8 at some books and 7.5 at others. I have it at 7.5 -110.
tryn to pay you back with a pick bro :)
I am going to keep an eye on my books to see if I can snag the over on 3.5… If I can get 3.5 at -130 or cheaper, I am going to jump on it. right now my only options are 4 and 4.5
the f5 total can fluctuate from book to book but I took it at 4 +105. If you like it you can find it at 3.5 -120. Roark is also a fade candidate. The weather is not going to like pitching in Cincy tonight. The total is 8 at some books and 7.5 at others. I have it at 7.5 -110.
tryn to pay you back with a pick bro :)
I am going to keep an eye on my books to see if I can snag the over on 3.5… If I can get 3.5 at -130 or cheaper, I am going to jump on it. right now my only options are 4 and 4.5
Rendon will play third and they will have a batting hole at second. wait til the lineups come out. Zimmo being out really hurts their expected runs. still worth a unit play imo, the weather being what it is
Rendon will play third and they will have a batting hole at second. wait til the lineups come out. Zimmo being out really hurts their expected runs. still worth a unit play imo, the weather being what it is
Good luck BoB! Your total plays have indeed been hitting at a prodigious pace lately. Very nice.
Count me in the boat trying to wait out my book and see if I can get the Brewers total to rise from 7.5 to 8 before placing my under bet. What do you think about the F5 under 4 in that game?
Also trying to wait for the Washington F5 under to lower from 4 to 3.5 before pouncing.
Good luck BoB! Your total plays have indeed been hitting at a prodigious pace lately. Very nice.
Count me in the boat trying to wait out my book and see if I can get the Brewers total to rise from 7.5 to 8 before placing my under bet. What do you think about the F5 under 4 in that game?
Also trying to wait for the Washington F5 under to lower from 4 to 3.5 before pouncing.
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