This is day 2 of my challenge to turn a $5,000 bankroll into $10,000 in one week on a limited number of plays. Here are the results for day 1.
Pick: Red Sox/Blue Jays U8.5 (-120.5), risking $869 to win $721.
Generous line as a result of all 3 previous games going high.
De La Rosa has the ability to shut Toronto down.
Good enough bullpens to handle mediocre offenses.
Stroman will deal to a withering Boston team (8.5 GB, 2L streak).
Concern: Stroman and the home-run ball.
Just like yesterday, if this pick wins I will look into possible late plays. On any day, a losing pick means that I quit and cut my losses for the day. This is to make sure that I keep myself from chasing losses and make use of my extremely profitable first day on this challenge.
Thanks for reading, and by all means, please discuss the picks. The main reason I come on this forum is to hear the insights that a lot of posters bring to the table. Best of luck today, everyone!
This is day 2 of my challenge to turn a $5,000 bankroll into $10,000 in one week on a limited number of plays. Here are the results for day 1.
Pick: Red Sox/Blue Jays U8.5 (-120.5), risking $869 to win $721.
Generous line as a result of all 3 previous games going high.
De La Rosa has the ability to shut Toronto down.
Good enough bullpens to handle mediocre offenses.
Stroman will deal to a withering Boston team (8.5 GB, 2L streak).
Concern: Stroman and the home-run ball.
Just like yesterday, if this pick wins I will look into possible late plays. On any day, a losing pick means that I quit and cut my losses for the day. This is to make sure that I keep myself from chasing losses and make use of my extremely profitable first day on this challenge.
Thanks for reading, and by all means, please discuss the picks. The main reason I come on this forum is to hear the insights that a lot of posters bring to the table. Best of luck today, everyone!
Pick: Oakland Athletics ML (-333.33), risking $590 to win $267.
Laying tons of chalk but Houston is just so bad. On a good enough run that I can make a play here. Good luck, everyone. By the way, this bet was posted just as the game was starting so the line may have moved by the time you see it but only slightly.
Pick: Oakland Athletics ML (-333.33), risking $590 to win $267.
Laying tons of chalk but Houston is just so bad. On a good enough run that I can make a play here. Good luck, everyone. By the way, this bet was posted just as the game was starting so the line may have moved by the time you see it but only slightly.
Pick: Oakland Athletics ML (-333.33), risking $590 to win $267.
Laying tons of chalk but Houston is just so bad. On a good enough run that I can make a play here. Good luck, everyone. By the way, this bet was posted just as the game was starting so the line may have moved by the time you see it but only slightly.
A math failure got me once again, the bet is to win $177. I had to rush to type that up because I was sweating the Toronto game. Not a liar just a fool, haha. Good luck, everyone.
Pick: Oakland Athletics ML (-333.33), risking $590 to win $267.
Laying tons of chalk but Houston is just so bad. On a good enough run that I can make a play here. Good luck, everyone. By the way, this bet was posted just as the game was starting so the line may have moved by the time you see it but only slightly.
A math failure got me once again, the bet is to win $177. I had to rush to type that up because I was sweating the Toronto game. Not a liar just a fool, haha. Good luck, everyone.
This Athletic's offense is just textbook production. I guess I should have took the RL but it's not my style. Don't like to take a (-1.5) from a psychological point of view. Players will fight 100% to win a game, and while they want to blow out the other team, winning by 2 isn't critical. Still, Houston does love to give up runs, don't they?
This Athletic's offense is just textbook production. I guess I should have took the RL but it's not my style. Don't like to take a (-1.5) from a psychological point of view. Players will fight 100% to win a game, and while they want to blow out the other team, winning by 2 isn't critical. Still, Houston does love to give up runs, don't they?
Pick: Marlins/Braves F5 U4.0 (+100), risking $467 to win $467.
Solid pitching
Home team struggles against RHP more than LHP
Neither team offensively magnificent
Questionable weather
Neither team tends to be too hot out of the starting gate
Clear value in the price
Currently 5-0 unless the Athletics absolutely explode. If I can maintain this rate, doubling my bankroll in seven days is very plausible. I will stick by my strategy to quit for the day if I lose a bet to prevent chasing, but since there will be some games likely starting before the F5 is over, I will have to make a judgment call about how the outcome looks. Best of luck the rest of the night, everyone!
Pick: Marlins/Braves F5 U4.0 (+100), risking $467 to win $467.
Solid pitching
Home team struggles against RHP more than LHP
Neither team offensively magnificent
Questionable weather
Neither team tends to be too hot out of the starting gate
Clear value in the price
Currently 5-0 unless the Athletics absolutely explode. If I can maintain this rate, doubling my bankroll in seven days is very plausible. I will stick by my strategy to quit for the day if I lose a bet to prevent chasing, but since there will be some games likely starting before the F5 is over, I will have to make a judgment call about how the outcome looks. Best of luck the rest of the night, everyone!
Something seems off to me, atleast with book.. FG 7.5 but F5 is o4-125 ?
Atlanta has a rock solid bullpen and there could be bad weather as the game goes on. I'm not sure that's a good enough explanation but it might play a role.
Something seems off to me, atleast with book.. FG 7.5 but F5 is o4-125 ?
Atlanta has a rock solid bullpen and there could be bad weather as the game goes on. I'm not sure that's a good enough explanation but it might play a role.
Okay, the F5 under in the Braves/Marlins has a chance even though there was a two-run homer so I'm just gonna be positive and make another play for the next round of games.
Indians F5 (-111.11), risking $234 to win $211.
Kluber has much better numbers vs KC than vice versa.
Okay, the F5 under in the Braves/Marlins has a chance even though there was a two-run homer so I'm just gonna be positive and make another play for the next round of games.
Indians F5 (-111.11), risking $234 to win $211.
Kluber has much better numbers vs KC than vice versa.
Braves/Marlins F5 U4.0 is a push. Don't mind that at all, especially since it was a higher odds play than I'll usually make. Hopefully the Indians can get some offensive production going.
Braves/Marlins F5 U4.0 is a push. Don't mind that at all, especially since it was a higher odds play than I'll usually make. Hopefully the Indians can get some offensive production going.
Chen has much better record against Seattle hitters than vice versa.
Mariners on 2L streak.
Mariners have a losing record at home.
Orioles are good on the road and are working okay offensively.
Key batter Ackley is 1 for 7 against Chen.
Seattle is a very large public favorite.
Not going to make a play on the other game, though I expect the Angels to take it and for it to be low scoring. Too much interest in that game I'm just gonna stay away and place my bet on the underdog with a really favorable line.
Chen has much better record against Seattle hitters than vice versa.
Mariners on 2L streak.
Mariners have a losing record at home.
Orioles are good on the road and are working okay offensively.
Key batter Ackley is 1 for 7 against Chen.
Seattle is a very large public favorite.
Not going to make a play on the other game, though I expect the Angels to take it and for it to be low scoring. Too much interest in that game I'm just gonna stay away and place my bet on the underdog with a really favorable line.
Recap: Today was another very successful day. I feel that I am restricting myself to high quality plays and being rewarded. I did make some errors today, however. I barely hit the U8.5 in the Boston game and should have just trusted Stroman to get the win on the ML. Additionally, I should have played the RL in the Athletics game and the under in the Indians game. Still, I have 0 losses on my record, so there is no use crying about what could have been.
I am very pleased with my results, as I managed to bank over $1,000 today alone. I am well over 3/5 of the way to my goal after only two days. I hope I can maintain my current run and double my bankroll well before a week has past, but my primary goal remains focusing only on incredibly high quality picks, and taking very little risk.
Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment on the challenge in general or on the picks I make. The reason I am posting the challenge here is because I enjoy the insights people bring to the table and it is both helpful to me and makes this process more enjoyable. Thanks for reading and best of luck tomorrow.
Recap: Today was another very successful day. I feel that I am restricting myself to high quality plays and being rewarded. I did make some errors today, however. I barely hit the U8.5 in the Boston game and should have just trusted Stroman to get the win on the ML. Additionally, I should have played the RL in the Athletics game and the under in the Indians game. Still, I have 0 losses on my record, so there is no use crying about what could have been.
I am very pleased with my results, as I managed to bank over $1,000 today alone. I am well over 3/5 of the way to my goal after only two days. I hope I can maintain my current run and double my bankroll well before a week has past, but my primary goal remains focusing only on incredibly high quality picks, and taking very little risk.
Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment on the challenge in general or on the picks I make. The reason I am posting the challenge here is because I enjoy the insights people bring to the table and it is both helpful to me and makes this process more enjoyable. Thanks for reading and best of luck tomorrow.
That's a tough question for me to answer. In the interest of full disclosure I'll be completely honest by saying that I don't have a set in stone system. I just never make a play until I've looked at just about every angle possible and make the best play I see. Right now one angle I do like is finding unders with high lines since the lines generally jump after the break. In general, if I like a team with a so-so bullpen to win I'll play F5. I like winning consistently over hitting long odds and so I'll rarely play serious underdogs and will not even consider most RL plays.
Whether it appears like a joke or not, I also do try to develop a psychological aspect on the games where one is reasonable. Although I do far more research on every play than I post in these threads, I do try to list the key points on each play. One other factor that can be make or break for me is public interest on questionable lines. As the day 1 thread will show, I was mulling over the O7.5 in the Dodgers/Pirates game with two gas cans on the mound yesterday, but laid off because the line was fishy and the public interest was extreme. I try to leave no stone un-turned.
That's a tough question for me to answer. In the interest of full disclosure I'll be completely honest by saying that I don't have a set in stone system. I just never make a play until I've looked at just about every angle possible and make the best play I see. Right now one angle I do like is finding unders with high lines since the lines generally jump after the break. In general, if I like a team with a so-so bullpen to win I'll play F5. I like winning consistently over hitting long odds and so I'll rarely play serious underdogs and will not even consider most RL plays.
Whether it appears like a joke or not, I also do try to develop a psychological aspect on the games where one is reasonable. Although I do far more research on every play than I post in these threads, I do try to list the key points on each play. One other factor that can be make or break for me is public interest on questionable lines. As the day 1 thread will show, I was mulling over the O7.5 in the Dodgers/Pirates game with two gas cans on the mound yesterday, but laid off because the line was fishy and the public interest was extreme. I try to leave no stone un-turned.
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