If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.13.2013, 1-0, +4.167 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 130-139-26, +33.59 Units, +2.51% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Pitchers were mean and nasty yesterday, scoring a 71.4 average rating versus the overall season average of 67.5. We saw totals go 6-3 to the under, including two of the three that went to extra innings. Overall pitcher ratings have shown an increase lately and they may be taking over again, even as the hot weather of summer approaches and the ball should fly better. Of course, if it don’t get up, it don’t get out, so if the pitchers keep the ball down, a grounder is still a grounder and totals could stay down. This is also an exceptional year for strikeouts with contact hitting becoming a lost art. Too many guys today are looking for one they can jack (which is unnecessary) and even taking a called strike three or using the fatal uppercut (jack) swing when they should be protecting the plate and putting the ball in play.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.13.2013, 1-0, +4.167 Units, +83.33% ROI
YTD – 130-139-26, +33.59 Units, +2.51% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Pitchers were mean and nasty yesterday, scoring a 71.4 average rating versus the overall season average of 67.5. We saw totals go 6-3 to the under, including two of the three that went to extra innings. Overall pitcher ratings have shown an increase lately and they may be taking over again, even as the hot weather of summer approaches and the ball should fly better. Of course, if it don’t get up, it don’t get out, so if the pitchers keep the ball down, a grounder is still a grounder and totals could stay down. This is also an exceptional year for strikeouts with contact hitting becoming a lost art. Too many guys today are looking for one they can jack (which is unnecessary) and even taking a called strike three or using the fatal uppercut (jack) swing when they should be protecting the plate and putting the ball in play.
Here we have a classic love affair between a team the public loves, a starter that has been impressive and an excellent home field record, so the concept becomes “Surely our beloved team and pitcher, at home, will clobber the underachieving starter and team.” Result: Distortion of true probability. I think, and my numbers indicate, the Dodgers are very much in this game and stand an excellent chance of winning. Locke is slipping a little, Fife is improving a little, and the Dodgers lefty offense is far better than the Pirates righty offense. Overall the Pirates have won 59% of their games, most with outstanding starter and bullpen work, but 66% at home and that figure is not likely to hold up all year. Binomial distribution almost demands a little regression pretty soon. Way too much bonus money here to pass up a play on the dog.
Royals F5, +151(Mendoza / Moore)
At 8-2 their last 10 the Royals have to be taken seriously again. You have to part company with what you thought of them last week, last month or the last 10 years, whatever. If not you will bet ancient history instead of current form and probability and have to absorb the shock to your bankroll and blood pressure. Mendoza has been showing steady progress while I have backed Moore very little this year, because, as I have been telling someone here (can’t remember who) his skill sets do not match his success and the wins were deceptive in regard to his actual performances. Last time out Mendoza chucked 7 shutout innings versus the Astros and Moore gave up 8 earned runs to the Orioles in only 5 innings, thoroughly getting his arse kicked and showing where his skill sets had to lead. His team has now dropped 3 of his last 4 starts and the only win was a 1 inning showing at Cleveland when he left early and the Rays offense put up 9 to take the game. Again, we have far too much variance from true probability to justify the big number on Moore.
Astros F5, +168(Sale / Bedard)
The White Sox could easily lose this game the same way they lost Sale’s last two starts, no freaking offense. It has been the rock in their shoe all season and doesn’t show signs of improvement. The Astros play with a ton of heart and are hard to stop if they get it going. They actually bring the better matchup offense to this game and are spotted a huge amount ore for the names on the jerseys than for any real discrepancy in probability. Sale is a huge name, Bedard is perceived as playing out the last games of his career, perception is far greater than reality. The Astros don’t lose them all and have been good to me this year in the right spots. I think this is one of those spots.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Dodgers F5, +135(Fife / Lock)
Here we have a classic love affair between a team the public loves, a starter that has been impressive and an excellent home field record, so the concept becomes “Surely our beloved team and pitcher, at home, will clobber the underachieving starter and team.” Result: Distortion of true probability. I think, and my numbers indicate, the Dodgers are very much in this game and stand an excellent chance of winning. Locke is slipping a little, Fife is improving a little, and the Dodgers lefty offense is far better than the Pirates righty offense. Overall the Pirates have won 59% of their games, most with outstanding starter and bullpen work, but 66% at home and that figure is not likely to hold up all year. Binomial distribution almost demands a little regression pretty soon. Way too much bonus money here to pass up a play on the dog.
Royals F5, +151(Mendoza / Moore)
At 8-2 their last 10 the Royals have to be taken seriously again. You have to part company with what you thought of them last week, last month or the last 10 years, whatever. If not you will bet ancient history instead of current form and probability and have to absorb the shock to your bankroll and blood pressure. Mendoza has been showing steady progress while I have backed Moore very little this year, because, as I have been telling someone here (can’t remember who) his skill sets do not match his success and the wins were deceptive in regard to his actual performances. Last time out Mendoza chucked 7 shutout innings versus the Astros and Moore gave up 8 earned runs to the Orioles in only 5 innings, thoroughly getting his arse kicked and showing where his skill sets had to lead. His team has now dropped 3 of his last 4 starts and the only win was a 1 inning showing at Cleveland when he left early and the Rays offense put up 9 to take the game. Again, we have far too much variance from true probability to justify the big number on Moore.
Astros F5, +168(Sale / Bedard)
The White Sox could easily lose this game the same way they lost Sale’s last two starts, no freaking offense. It has been the rock in their shoe all season and doesn’t show signs of improvement. The Astros play with a ton of heart and are hard to stop if they get it going. They actually bring the better matchup offense to this game and are spotted a huge amount ore for the names on the jerseys than for any real discrepancy in probability. Sale is a huge name, Bedard is perceived as playing out the last games of his career, perception is far greater than reality. The Astros don’t lose them all and have been good to me this year in the right spots. I think this is one of those spots.
You seem to play many more F5 than the whole game, any reasoning behind that? thanks
Absolutely, and it is working out very well. 71-60 in 5 innings and 60-79 full game. I originally came to Covers as a 5 inning capper, then got away from it as I had a season where my 5 inning losers were almost all 9 inning winners. Now I will do both, but there will be a lot more 5 than 9. The basis is simple. The 5 inning game is basically man to man, starter versus starter, with no managerial decisions or bullpens involved. The 5 inning line is based on the 9 inning line which definitely allows room for bullpen and pinch hitter considerations, and that can create an advantage in the 5 inning line.
Welcome, BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by Crazy_Carl:
You seem to play many more F5 than the whole game, any reasoning behind that? thanks
Absolutely, and it is working out very well. 71-60 in 5 innings and 60-79 full game. I originally came to Covers as a 5 inning capper, then got away from it as I had a season where my 5 inning losers were almost all 9 inning winners. Now I will do both, but there will be a lot more 5 than 9. The basis is simple. The 5 inning game is basically man to man, starter versus starter, with no managerial decisions or bullpens involved. The 5 inning line is based on the 9 inning line which definitely allows room for bullpen and pinch hitter considerations, and that can create an advantage in the 5 inning line.
Key, looks to me like u try to play Linemaker to much, and are most of the time picking lousy teams too much. T.B. is 17-5 at home vs K.C.and Mendozza only lasted 4 innings in that 9-8 home win. I know you don't like trends, but K.C. is 1-16 on the road after scoring 10 or more runs. What do u think about the Cubs + tonight?
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Key, looks to me like u try to play Linemaker to much, and are most of the time picking lousy teams too much. T.B. is 17-5 at home vs K.C.and Mendozza only lasted 4 innings in that 9-8 home win. I know you don't like trends, but K.C. is 1-16 on the road after scoring 10 or more runs. What do u think about the Cubs + tonight?
Absolutely, and it is working out very well. 71-60 in 5 innings and 60-79 full game. I originally came to Covers as a 5 inning capper, then got away from it as I had a season where my 5 inning losers were almost all 9 inning winners. Now I will do both, but there will be a lot more 5 than 9. The basis is simple. The 5 inning game is basically man to man, starter versus starter, with no managerial decisions or bullpens involved. The 5 inning line is based on the 9 inning line which definitely allows room for bullpen and pinch hitter considerations, and that can create an advantage in the 5 inning line.
Welcome, BOL
Good Stuff My Brother!!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Absolutely, and it is working out very well. 71-60 in 5 innings and 60-79 full game. I originally came to Covers as a 5 inning capper, then got away from it as I had a season where my 5 inning losers were almost all 9 inning winners. Now I will do both, but there will be a lot more 5 than 9. The basis is simple. The 5 inning game is basically man to man, starter versus starter, with no managerial decisions or bullpens involved. The 5 inning line is based on the 9 inning line which definitely allows room for bullpen and pinch hitter considerations, and that can create an advantage in the 5 inning line.
Key, looks to me like u try to play Linemaker to much, and are most of the time picking lousy teams too much. T.B. is 17-5 at home vs K.C.and Mendozza only lasted 4 innings in that 9-8 home win. I know you don't like trends, but K.C. is 1-16 on the road after scoring 10 or more runs. What do u think about the Cubs + tonight?
How stupid could you possibly be? LOL
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Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:
Key, looks to me like u try to play Linemaker to much, and are most of the time picking lousy teams too much. T.B. is 17-5 at home vs K.C.and Mendozza only lasted 4 innings in that 9-8 home win. I know you don't like trends, but K.C. is 1-16 on the road after scoring 10 or more runs. What do u think about the Cubs + tonight?
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I Like it
Good luck Genius!
Shrimp has been Bashing my threads all year long.
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