Wed (6/12) "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

The Good:

DET (-125)

Verlander is 15-2 (.882) vs. KC in his career.  KC has only managed to win Shields’ starts when they have scored at least 4 runs in a game.  Seeing that Verlander held them to 1 ER in 7 IP in the earlier meeting and that KC bats have been cold in this current homestand, KC will not score 4 runs today.    

The Bad:  Figaro (MIL)

MIA (+102)

Usually MIA is a heavy underdog, but the line on this game is close for a reason.  MIA victories tend to come in pairs.  Since April 27, MIA is 5-0 in HOME games following a win.  Figaro is a relief pitcher and has not yet shown the stamina to last more than 5.1 IP.  In Figaro’s last 6 outings, he has a 6.38 ERA.  In Figaro’s last 2 starts, he has a 6.98 ERA – and both of those starts were at HOME, so this stat could get worse as this next start will be AWAY.  Slowey is 3-0 in 5 career starts vs. MIL with a 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .229 BAA.  MIA has won both of Slowey’s June starts.

The Ugly:  Maholm (ATL) AWAY + Volquez (SD) HOME = Fireworks

ATL/SD (OVER 7.5)

SD has a .290 BAA vs. Maholm.  When Maholm has had 2 consecutive starts AWAY this season, his first AWAY start is essentially a quality start (3 ER in 6 IP @ PIT, 2 ER in 5.2 IP @ CIN, but his second consecutive AWAY start is awful (8 ER in 3.2 IP @ DET, 6 ER in 4.1 IP @ SFO).  Maholm is coming off an excellent performance (1 ER in 7.1 IP @ LAD), so he is due to get lit up again.  In Maholm’s last 3 AWAY starts, he has a 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.  Volquez is just as awful vs. ATL with a 4.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.  In Volquez’s last 3 HOME starts, he has a 7.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.

The Good:

CIN (-135)

Leake had an awful start in his last outing and makes up for it against the lowly Cubs.  Wood is 0-2 in 4 career starts vs. CIN with a 5.25 ERA (7.94 ERA, .318 BAA in the most recent match-up last month).  CIN has dominated this series in the last 20 games.

The Bad:  Hammel (BAL)

LAA (+110)

Hammel is 1-3 in 5 career starts vs. LAA with a 6.75 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and .319 BAA.  His home record this year mirrors that almost exactly:  1-3 in 5 HOME starts, 7.33 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .311 BAA.  Meanwhile, Williams (2.87 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) has been lights out for LAA time and again, sporting a 3-1 career record vs. BAL, with a .240 BAA.

The Ugly:  Zito (SF) AWAY + Liriano (PIT) HOME = Blowout

PIT (-1)

After last night’s result, does this game really need a write-up?  Zito 0-3 in 4 AWAY starts, 10.19 ERA.  Liriano pitching lights out right now (0.96 ERA at home, .174 BAA).  I’m tempted to go Alternate 2 RL for the -2.5 spread…