Money Ball 6.07

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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

6.06.2013, 3-3, +3.1 Units, +10.3% ROI

YTD – 126-129-25, +62.16 Units, +4.92% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Today’s comment: 2-1 would have been better than 3-3 yesterday although I did turn a profit thanks to the power of the underdog. Just the same, the F5 is doing better and that is the way I have to go. Like Lombardi said, “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” and my attitude is win, collect money, bow to the ROI. What fun is 60% if you aren’t making any money or just a very small return on your investments?

Cardinals F5 (-115) (Wainright / Leake)

Don’t get me wrong, Mike Leake is a quality pitcher and one of the reasons for the Reds success so far. They are 7-4 when he takes the ball and in that quality start thing I do by my own standards he is 8-4, normally a guy you look to go with and not lay juice against. Today is the exception as he goes against Adam Wainright, who may best be described as unconscious. Really, the Cardinals are 9-3 when he takes the ball and he is 11-1 in the quality start department. Another edge I have to award the Cardinals is the one that will put both these teams in the playoffs, with the Cardinals winning the division and the Reds right on their heels. That is offensive production versus right handed starters. The Reds are second best in MLB, but second best behind who? Why the Cardinals of course. At 12-2-1 their last 15 and turning in a 6.9 oera, they exceed the Reds 8-2-5 and 5. Those two factors also eliminate an Under play on this game, which would be almost automatic with a Wainright-Leake matchup, but if either guy stubs his toe, one offense alone could put this game over.  

Dodgers F5 (-115) (Maholm / Ryu)

What rocket scientist is using his deep pockets to hold this line down by backing Maholm? I don’t know, don’t care, but Maholm is not exactly having a banner year or contributing to the Braves success. In 12 starts the team is 8-4 when he takes the ball but I list him 6-6 in quality starts and he has obviously benefitted from the 4.83 runs of support he has gotten, on average. There must have been quite a few righties in his opponent list as that is the strong suit of the Braves offense, establishing a 6.0 oera versus the last 15. OK, but they average only 4.4 versus lefty and the average strength of schedule has been 66.6, not really comparable to Ryu’s rating of 71.7. On the offensive side of things for the Dodgers, they have an oera last 15 versus lefty of only 3.2, but are 8-3-4 versus lefty in those games and Ryu checks in today at 8-3 in the quality start category versus Maholm’s 6-6. Blame the scoring differential on Dodger Stadium, the offensive rating numbers are much closer at Braves 34.4, Dodgers 35.0.

BOL

Quote Originally Posted by bookiekilla:

Nice picks!  Too bad TEX blew it last night!  Good luck today!

But, any day you make a buck is a good day. Move on.

'is included in my cap and he is rewarded"

I should have said is included in my game assessment and that is what results in his ranking.

JicJac - Today is especially tough I think. I had a hard time finding just two plays that fit my criteria and neither one is a dog. Very unusual, but sometimes things just fall like that and a day off is not a bad idea, even with a full card on a Friday night. If I lose either one I will wish I had just passed on the day too.