Under 77.5 @+115 Kansas City Royals Win Total (5Dimes) LARGE
Under 89 @ -110 Toronto Blue Jays Win Total (5Dimes) VERY LARGE
Prop Bet:
Field Wins American League East @ -165
These were both locked in the day the lines came out.
Although Bell was a huge disappointment last year, the change of scenery may give Bell a well needed boost. Kevin Towers was the General Manager of the San Diego Padres when Heath Bell was the set-up man and while Bell has struggled as of late, Towers believes the pitcher will benefit from pitching in the NL West.
The Arizona Diamondbacks rotation looks decent at quick glance, but if you look deeper into the numbers they could easily be a pesky team with a bright upside. Ian Kennedy had a great year in 2011, posting a 2.88 ERA and going 21-4 in 33 games played. Although Kennedy struggled at times last year, he still ended with a 15-12 record and pitched 208.1 innings. While Kennedy slumped on the road, he still pitched well enough to win games at home. Second started and former Athletic, Trevor Cahill struggled at Chase Field but was surprisingly dominant away from home posting a 2.21 ERA and possessed a .221 batting average against. Wade Miley pitched well in his first full year, winning 16 games while posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 31 starts. Miley pitched well at home and his future is looking extremely bright with the Diamondbacks. Brandon McCarthy will join former teammate Trevor Cahill as the fourth starter in this rotation. McCarthy was riddled by injuries last year, but if healthy he can be the best pitcher in this rotation and is a great addition by Towers. The fifth pitcher in this rotation is 21 year old top prospect, Trevor Skaggs. Although Skaggs struggled in his first year, the organization has high hopes for the youngster. He has tremendous command on all of his pitches with a great curve-ball to go with his solid fastball. Reliever David Hernandez posted a 2.50 ERA, while racking up 98 strikeouts, not to mention his WHIP was a hair over one. The two question marks in this bullpen will be right hander Heath Bell and left hander Tony Sipp. They could easily cause serious problems in the later innings. Watch for Brad Ziegler to have another phenomenal year as he dominated last year. Right hander, Josh Collmenter can start in the place of an injured pitcher, pitch in long inning relief, or come in the game at any time. He also will have a better year than he did last year, which will give this bullpen a huge advantage. All-Star closer J.J. Putz had 32 saves in 57 appearances, holding a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. We don’t see Putz putting up numbers less than he did in previous years; look for him to have another dominant season.
The Diamondbacks offense is completely underrated, but their statistics for the past two years speak for themselves. Although they lost star outfielder Justin Upton, they will be better or the same offensively as he did not contribute at all last year. They had one of the highest on base percentage, which shows you that they can get on base frequently and put stress on pitchers early in the game. Aaron Hill will have another beneficial season as he hit for two cycles in the 2012 season. Watch for Miguel Montero to bounce back and have a huge year at and behind the plate because that’s what good players do. I see Jason Kubel have a break out year and really helping this team offensively in clutch situations. The addition of Cody Ross will bring another clutch big bat into this starting lineup. In the trade for Upton, the Diamondbacks received reliable starting third baseman Martin Prado which will also duplicate his previous year batting statistics. He is a lifetime .295 batter, .435 slugging, and a .345 on base percentage and I see nothing that will tell him he will drop below that.
Prediction:
The Diamondbacks made some good moves in the offseason as a low budget team, which will pay off. They ended the season with 81 wins, but I believe this team will come close to 90 wins in this division. They could easily jump past the Dodgers at the end of the year as they are a good second half team. There is serious value in the Diamondbacks winning the division at +575 which could easily happen as they play the division well and they are a very scrappy team. Many people will write off the Diamondbacks early, but after looking deeper into this team I can see potential this year. Kevin Towers did well in picking up Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy, which will make a huge difference in this team’s performance. The addition of veteran bench players Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske will add pinch hitting depth, good defensive substitution, and helpful voices in the locker room.
Play:
Win Total:
Over 82.5 @ +100 (Line provided by 5Dimes)
*Confidence: Premium*
Future Play:
Win National League West @ +575
(Line provided by 5Dimes)
*Although we believe the Giants will win the National League West, the Diamondbacks have a lot of value at +575. Since both the Giants and Diamondbacks are at plus money to win the division both can be played.
The Braves have added the Upton brothers to their line up, which will have a serious impact on their run production. Justin Upton did not perform well last year, but I think playing on the same team as his older brother will give him the motivation he needs to prove his critics wrong. Although they lost Prado and Bourn they still have many dangerous batters on this team. Heyward will still be a threat as he is always liable to hit 25 plus homeruns and drive in 100 RBI’s. Dan Uggla had a horrible year last year which leads to believe that he will bounce back to his career numbers and be solid source for runs at the top of that line up. Uggla averages above 30 homeruns a year for a reason because he an All-Star baseball player, look for him to have a breakout year. If Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann can stay healthy throughout the year it will add a huge source of power that cannot be stopped. The addition of veteran catcher, Gerald Laird will give McCann a chance to rest from time to time which will lead to more offensive production.
Prediction:
The Atlanta Braves will most likely be the best offensive team in the National League with the St. Louis Cardinals not far behind. The Braves offseason transactions really made this a World Series contender quickly. Their starting rotation is one of the best in the baseball, their outfield is the most dangerous offensively and defensively, and they have good team chemistry. While the Washington Nationals are favorites to win the World Series, the Braves are a team that will surprise many by taking back the NL East. I see this team getting extremely close to winning 100 games this year.
Play:
Win Totals:
Over 87.5 @ +105 (Line provided by 5Dimes)
*Confidence: Premium*
Future Plays:
Win National League East @ +175
Win National League Pennant +600
Win World Series +1600
(Lines provided by 5Dimes)
He is also on the upswing of his career as he posted a 2.93 ERA/1.05 WHIP and went 9-3 in 15 starts. This kid is comfortable, has command, and could easily be the best back-end starter in the AL East. Look for Tillman to win the most games in this rotation and surprise the critics that believe the Orioles were a one hit wonder. Former Atlanta Braves starter Jair Jurrjens was demoted last year after a string of horrible outings. Duquette signed Jurrjens to a minor league contract and it seems like he will be pitching in the five spot come the 2013 season. Jurrjens can return to his 2011 form when he became an All-Star for the National League, but he must work hard during the offseason and prove to Showalter that he can handle the pressure of returning to the big leagues. If he cannot handle the load, there will be someone else ready to start in the fifth spot. Showalter manages his starters like babies, they all have short leashes which makes sense because Baltimore’s bullpen was top five in the league last year. As a bullpen they posted an even 3 ERA in 545.1 innings pitched while going 32-11 which was the best winning percentage amongst all bullpens. As a bullpen they posted the second most saves at 55, one behind the Reds 56. Ayala who is coming back for another season is a great right handed option for Showalter as he posted great numbers against right handed batters and had a cumulative ERA of 2.64 with 51 strikeouts/14 bases on balls in 75 innings pitched while only allowing 7 homeruns. O’Day is another right handed option who rarely gives up hits when he comes into a game. Look for O’Day to have a monster year and make it easier on the others in the bullpen. Showalter will use Patton against left handed batters and what better decision to make then to go to 27 year old stud who doesn’t give up any homeruns and rarely walks batters. Baltimore received Pedro Strop in a trade with the Texas Rangers in 2011 and he has been nothing but excellent for this ball club. In the 2012 season, Strop shined as he posted a 2.44 ERA, 24 holds, 5-2 record, and 58 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched. Baltimore fans should feel confident once the ball is in the hands of Strop because soon it will be in the hands of their closer, Jim Johnson. Seeing how the Orioles were 27-7 in one run games, it makes sense that Johnson had 51 saves which was the most in the major leagues last season not to mention he only blew 3 of them. Baltimore has the most reliable closer in the game which makes it much easier for the rest of the team, knowing that they have this weapon to close out games waiting for his opportunity.
Baltimore has one of the most powerful line-ups in the game and proved that by hitting 214 homeruns which was good for second place behind New York’s 245 homeruns. Although many believe that their late inning heroics and constant power was a fluke, the Orioles believe they can win more than 93 games this year with the team they have. Center fielder Adam Jones had the best season of his career and Baltimore fans should be excited to see Jones playing for this ball club during his prime. He will continue to excel and carry this team on his back when they need a big hit. Shortstop J.J. Hardy struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but began to pick it up when it mattered. He ended up batting well below his career average but still managed 22 homeruns, which is high among shortstops. Hardy is one of those players who will bounce back and have a solid year hitting in the two slot and winning the gold glove in 2012 proves that he is a serious asset defensively as well. Left fielder Nate McLouth performed well in the last 47 games of the 2012 season and should be able to carry the success over to the new year. Chris Davis has transitioned himself into the full time first baseman role and has all the makings of a power hitter. Last season he belted 33 homeruns which was the most of his career, but don’t expect him to regress in any sense of his game. Weiters didn’t have a great year, but he had many clutch hits and always plays well behind the plate, he will be a joy to watch this year and will have a more productive year offensively.
Prediction:
For some reason many believe the Orioles will not be above .500 after winning 93 games which is baffling. This team is built to win 90 games as they have power, solid starting pitching, and top three bullpen in the league. They have young players who listen and respect their manager and they have a manager who knows exactly how to manage a baseball team of Baltimore’s caliber. Showalter is a mastermind and he uses each one of his players to their strengths which his why they win games. Once the ball is handed over to the bullpen, the run total will be sustained and it is up to the offense to win the game if they are behind. This team will win 90 plus games this year, Jones will have another gigantic season, and this year they will win the AL East shocking many while leaving the overrated Blue Jays well behind them. At 25/1, the Orioles have the most value in winning the American League as they will definitely win the division in a tough close battle towards the end.
Play:
Win Total
Over 78.5 @ -110 (Line provided by 5Dimes)
*Confidence: Very High*
Future Play:
Win American League East @ +800
Win American League Pennant +1800
(Line provided by 5Dimes)
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