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If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
5.28.2013, 0-5-1, -25 Units, -100% ROI
YTD – 113-122-22, +38.6 Units, +3.39% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
One way, maybe the best, maybe not, (jmho), to come off a bad day or slump is to go the “Best Bet” route. That is what I am doing today and may or may not continue past today.
Tigers F5 (-108) FG (-109) (Sanchez / Burnett)
In many ways Sanchez and Burnett are putting up similar numbers, but that has to be graded when you realize Sanchez has faced only one National League team on the road (No DH) and Burnett has faced 0 American League teams in their home parks. Edge to Sanchez.
What should really make a difference here is the offenses. The Tigers are not used to getting shut out and are probably a little pissed at themselves over that. Certainly no knock on Gomez or the Pirates bullpen, because starting pitching and bullpen are the strengths of the team.
The Pirates offense sucks (as always) and if they don’t get some they will soon encounter their typical mid season swoon when the starters and bullpen have suffered all the stress they can handle. Déjà vu all over again, as Yogi would say. Over the course of their last 15 versus righty starters in the 5 inning game they are 7-6-1, which looks acceptable until you realize they have done it while allowing righty starters to go almost 6 innings while surrendering only 1.9 earned runs. There are 8 quality starts in that mix and the Pirates will need a better than quality start from Burnett versus the fifth best offense in baseball (per my numbers).
The pissed off Tigers have gone 8-6-1 in the same category but have done it by putting up 3.8 runs per game in less than 6 innings, double the offensive run production of the Pirates.
Trend players: Just so you know, I could give a damn less what Sanchez did versus the Pirates in the N.L. or Burnett’s prior record versus the Tigers. Ancient history, today’s form and probability are what matters.
BOL
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