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Picks from The Laboratory/ Data updated

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Posted: #1
18-12-1 yesterday 

total 250-176-4

Here are the percentages for today. Questions and comments welcome

AMERICAN

 

NYY RL 66.674

BAL ML 69.230

CLE RL 86.6670

CLE/DET O 69.2310

CLE ML 72.2220

TOR RL 88.3654

TB/TOR O 65.2357

TOR  ML 70.3584

OAK RL 74.3520

OAK /TEX O 54.588

TEX ML 53.0310

BOS/CHW O 67.829

CHW ML above 90

HOU RL 58.333

HOU/KC O 55

KC ML 72.2220

SEA RL 74.9620

SEA/LAA O 51.22

LAA ML 58.1940

 

NATIONAL

 

CHC RL 66.6670

CHC/PIT U 59.306

PIT ML 78.172

MIA RL above 90

PHI ML 52.632

CIN/NYM O 69.768

CIN ML 75.343

LA/MIL O 66.679

LAD ML 72.6998

SD RL above 90

STL ML 52.632

WAS RL 66.6670

WAS/SF U 56.0470

SF ML 67.6440

 

INTERLEAGUE

 

MIN RL 71.5670

ATL ML 61.334

 

 PEACE!

 
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Posted: #2
Do you have a record by percentile? Not asking for extra work, just existing data if its available. i.e 80-90 percentile is hitting at a rate of 66%, etc.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by YankeeChaser:

Do you have a record by percentile? Not asking for extra work, just existing data if its available. i.e 80-90 percentile is hitting at a rate of 66%, etc.
no but the over all rate forThe System is coincedently.66·% This happens in every league

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Posted: #4
I hope the Tex game does not.get rained out. Lots.of value



PEACE!
 
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Posted: #5
Hey, could you address my PM regarding the value. Re: Implied odds vs. picks. 

Cheers.
 
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Posted: #6
Excellent work Holden....Peace

 
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Posted: #7
"I hope the Tex game does not.get rained out. Lots.of value"

What do you mean by this Holden?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by capuchaboy:

"I hope the Tex game does not.get rained out. Lots.of value"

What do you mean by this Holden?

https://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

I believe he's referring to lines makers having implied odds based ont he public interest, versus his system, that generates a theoretic probability of the result of that particular line's odds.

Favorite Closing Line Odds Implied Odds System Probability

oak rl -110 0.52 74.352
oak tex over -110 0.52 54.588
tex ml  -210 0.68 53.031

Here's a quick for instance:


 
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Posted: #9
*there's

 
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Posted: #10
Thanks henry
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:


https://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

I believe he's referring to lines makers having implied odds based ont he public interest, versus his system, that generates a theoretic probability of the result of that particular line's odds.

Favorite Closing Line Odds Implied Odds System Probability

oak rl -110 0.52 74.352
oak tex over -110 0.52 54.588
tex ml  -210 0.68 53.031

Here's a quick for instance:




SO would this mean he would be on oakland?
 
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Posted: #12
No ARI/COL?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by shadyejr:



SO would this mean he would be on oakland?
It would mean I'm on oakland. I'm not sure what he's doing. 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by shadyejr:



SO would this mean he would be on oakland?


yes since Texas ML only has a probability of .53 this means they are not as likely to win as the line would suggest. at -220 I believe there would have to be about .68 probability for the line to match the probability. Therefore, there is value in the A's

Conversely, if you look at the A's RL at .74, this means the play has 74% implied probability of hitting and since you can get A's RL at -105 where you earn almost even money on your bet there is value there

hope this helps
 
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Posted: #15
This is "value" in betting, guys. Understanding the public's opinion and the bookmakers making the line according to the public, then pinpointing which probabilities mean value for the investor (bettor).

I'm just harnassing this in my brain guys. I'm sure PMing Holden would be a lot better. 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



yes since Texas ML only has a probability of .53 this means they are not as likely to win as the line would suggest. at -220 I believe there would have to be about .68 probability for the line to match the probability. Therefore, there is value in the A's

Conversely, if you look at the A's RL at .74, this means the play has 74% implied probability of hitting and since you can get A's RL at -105 where you earn almost even money on your bet there is value there

hope this helps


Thanks for the tag-in for clarification. 
 
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Posted: #17
Pretty sure he would be on Texas if they are 53%
Why would he take oak at 47%
Plus it's Yu on the mound
Y'all need to buy some common sense
 
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Posted: #18
I did a quick tabulation of today's games so you guys can see the overall value more clearly. Sorry to barge in on your thread Holden, just wanted to clear up all the questions that keep recurring, just let me know if you don't appreciate it and I'll knock it off.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArabNv4eQEyQdHNSdVl3VFB6N0lUdU84WVJyenJLV3c&usp=sharing

I clipped that from my google drive spreadsheet that I made for betting. That's the calculation portion that tabulates which bets show which probability, and I always clip Holden's values () daily and put them into my google spreadsheet. From there, I decide on which games to bet based on underlying value. 

EG: Sox ML

Favorite  Line Odds  Implied Odds System Probability

chi ml -105 0.512 above 90

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Oliver_hirface:

Pretty sure he would be on Texas if they are 53%
Why would he take oak at 47%
Plus it's Yu on the mound
Y'all need to buy some common sense


Okay....?

Or one might just straight up avoid Texas, because the line claims that they should win 68% of the time, but his probability shows that they'll probably win only about 52% of the time. Read: Not valuable.

Or, you know, I need common sense.
 
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Posted: #20
To address your oakland value.

One would take oakland, because in reality they're going to win this game 47% of the time, whereas the bookies are saying most of the public is paying for a 32% win percentage. 


 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Hey, could you address my PM regarding the value. Re: Implied odds vs. picks. 

Cheers.
on it




PEACE!
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by capuchaboy:

Excellent work Holden....Peace

Thanks capu  I appreciate that



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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

I did a quick tabulation of today's games so you guys can see the overall value more clearly. Sorry to barge in on your thread Holden, just wanted to clear up all the questions that keep recurring, just let me know if you don't appreciate it and I'll knock it off.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArabNv4eQEyQdHNSdVl3VFB6N0lUdU84WVJyenJLV3c&usp=sharing

I clipped that from my google drive spreadsheet that I made for betting. That's the calculation portion that tabulates which bets show which probability, and I always clip Holden's values () daily and put them into my google spreadsheet. From there, I decide on which games to bet based on underlying value. 

EG: Sox ML

Favorite  Line Odds  Implied Odds System Probability

chi ml -105 0.512 above 90

NO don' t mind at all. Investing is all about value

PEACE!
 
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Posted: #24
Isn't CHW the play of the day then?  Since there ML is about -110 and implied chance of winning is over 90%?

 
 
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Posted: #25
Holden I know this is the MLB forum 
But can u kindly run the numbers for tonight's nba 
Memphis vs spurs 
And also NHL
La vs sj

Thanks a lot... Appreciated
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