Posted:
#1
I've been away a while, but needed/wanted somewhere to post a little analysis of my plays for those interested in reading it. Some of you may remember me. Not here for attention, bickering, etc. Just a place to jot down some thoughts on games. That said here's what I've got for Friday.
Cubs +116 - At first glance this may seem like an odd play, but there's a few things here worth noting. Yes Edwin Jackson has a 6.02 ERA, but his peripherals suggest quite a bit of bad luck is responsible for that inflated ERA. His FIP is 3.51, and today facing a Mets squad that hits .221 against righties is just the kind opponent Jackson needs to start chipping away at that ERA. On the other end we have Matt Harvey who as we all know is an animal. I won't bother to say otherwise. That said we still have a Mets team that's 15-23 on the season and we can get plus money going against them on the road. Too much to pass up for me. I know this isn't a comfortable play to make, but one that i'll take a shot with.
Dodgers +123 - Going to take a shot with another dog here. This is the Braves first game back home after a long west coast road trip. Typically teams are a bit sluggish in such spots, and seeing a crafty lefty they've never faced before should only add to the Braves woes tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been very solid this year and his peripherals show it hasn't been a fluke. His walks are low, his K's are high, and his FIP is a very solid 3.18. I expect him to give Atlanta a tough time tonight with this being their first look at him. One the flip side of the equation we have Paul Maholm taking on a Dodgers lineup that hits a robust .295 against left handers. I like Maholm, he's a solid pitcher, I just don't like this particular match up for him. I see this as a lineup that could bang him around a bit.
Brewers/Cardinals Over 8.5 (-105) - Plenty here to justify a postion on the over. Jaime Garcia has been solid this year but a 75% left on base percentage is unsustainable and will likely be the source of some regression for him. Also worth noting that the Brewers beat up lefties to the tune of a .279 average. Yes Garcia has solid career numbers against the Brewers but I feel they get to him tonight despite that. The flip side of the coin sees a very hittable Wily Peralta take on a Cardinals team that hits .270 against right handers. Peralta averages less than 5 K's per 9 innings and on the road against a strong Cardinals lineup he should have some trouble tonight. I see this one as a 7-5 type of game.
Orioles -112 - Losses like the one the Rays suffered last night are tough to bounce back from. Leading 3-1 in the 9th they handed the ball over to Fernando Rodney who gave up a 3 run double to blow the lead and the game. The Rays are also on the heels of losing David Price to the DL, and mentally who knows where this squad is right now. Hitting the road right now, where they are 6-12 on the year shouldn't help matters at all. Jeremy Hellickson has an ERA around 5.50 on the road this season, and should have his work cut out for him tonight against an offense that hits a solid .269 against right handers. This price is plenty friendly enough for me to back the home team against a reeling TB team.
Twins +131 - On paper this seems like a slam dunk Boston play, but a deeper look shows some nice value on the Twins. Twins starter Vance Worley has been perhaps the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this year. Opponents have a .405 BABIP against him. Without going too deep into sabermetrics for those unfamiliar with that stat, lets just say bloops, dinkers and dunkers have been falling in against Worley more so than just about any other pitcher in the game. As a result he's got a 7.15 ERA, and he's not nearly that bad of a pitcher. I won't claim he's a top notch guy or anything, but he's far from as bad as those numbers would lead you to believe. Bostons starter Clay Buchholz has seen a different side of the luck coin. He's allowed a BABIP of only .269, which is to say likely plenty of well hit balls finding gloves instead of holes. He also has a left on base percentage of 84%. League average is around 70%. Lastly he's keeping the ball in the yard at a rate far lower than any other point in his career. Is that due to his improvement as a pitcher? Quite possibly, but it would also be naive to think luck isn't a factor in that as well. In summary I think regression is coming for Buchholz. Maybe not drastic regression, but regression none the less. This price is good enough for me to roll with the home dog, while I assume most ppl will pound Boston.
Royals -113 - This play may come off as a bit square, but so be it. James Shields continues to be the same old guy in Kansas City that he was with the Rays. High K's, low BB's, works deep into games. A true gamer, and a guy who is going to keep his team in the game just about every time he takes the mound. Factor in the A's only hit .228 against right handers and I think Shields has his way tonight. Oakland's starter Jarrod Parker on the other hand is a mess. To put it simply the guy just can't find the plate, as he's averaging nearly 5 walks per 9 innings. A terribly high amount. Baseball now a days is more and more unforgiving to walks. Pitchers who give away free passes are made to pay, and Parkers ERA of nearly 7 shows just that. Until he can find the plate he's damn near an auto fade for me. At the end of the day this is a starting pitching mismatch the likes I can't ignore. If Parker somehow out duels Shields, so be it.
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