''Trap games'', ''Reverse line movement betting'', ''Betting against the public consesus %''

Question

&#x27;&#x27;There has been a lot of talk on this site lately about &#x27;&#x27;Trap games&#x27;&#x27;, &#x27;&#x27;Reverse line movement betting&#x27;&#x27;, &#x27;&#x27;Betting against the public consesus %&#x27;&#x27;. and People that get their panties in a bundle thinking that it is such a huge factor when looking at game.....So lets get the facts straight. People seem to be under the impression that if Team A has a higher percentage of people wagering on them then the line should move accordingly. And that if it doesnt, or it actually moves the opposite way then Team B is the play. FALSE. Vegase moves lines based on the percentage of money each side has on it....They do not move lines based on the percentage of people betting a certain side. Vegase wants equal action on each game, they make their money on the juice, not on winning and losing wagering.  So basically just because more PEOPLE are betting a certain side does not mean that the line will or should move that way. The only true way to see if there is reverse line movement would be to see what percentage of money each side has on them (which is impossible). So the next time I see someone say that 65% of the public is on side A, but the line hasnt moved please remember that it doesnt neccessarily mean shit.&#x27;&#x27;

underthetotal · Answer

&#x27;&#x27;There has been a lot of talk on this site lately about &#x27;&#x27;Trap games&#x27;&#x27;, &#x27;&#x27;Reverse line movement betting&#x27;&#x27;, &#x27;&#x27;Betting against the public consesus %&#x27;&#x27;. and People that get their panties in a bundle thinking that it is such a huge factor when looking at game.....So lets get the facts straight. People seem to be under the impression that if Team A has a higher percentage of people wagering on them then the line should move accordingly. And that if it doesnt, or it actually moves the opposite way then Team B is the play. FALSE. Vegase moves lines based on the percentage of money each side has on it....They do not move lines based on the percentage of people betting a certain side. Vegase wants equal action on each game, they make their money on the juice, not on winning and losing wagering.  So basically just because more PEOPLE are betting a certain side does not mean that the line will or should move that way. The only true way to see if there is reverse line movement would be to see what percentage of money each side has on them (which is impossible). So the next time I see someone say that 65% of the public is on side A, but the line hasnt moved please remember that it doesnt neccessarily mean shit.&#x27;&#x27;

Gogic · Answer

FALSEWhile that has probably been true in the golden days, today the situation is completely different. These days books will take one sided action if the money is going on the wrong side.

JoeyGladstone · Answer

If you know your stuff then you know your stuff. Never go with anybody elses pick.

Go with your OWN. It's as simple as that.

Thinking too much in gambling is what gets you in trouble.

Who cares if everybody is on the Red Sox or Rays tonight? If you feel they are gonna win, roll the dice on em. People try & make gambling way too difficult.

trainwreck66 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JoeyGladstone] If you know your stuff then you know your stuff. Never go with anybody elses pick.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Go with your OWN. It&#x27;s as simple as that. &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Thinking too much in gambling is what gets you in trouble.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Who cares if everybody is on the Red Sox or Rays tonight? If you feel they are gonna win, roll the dice on em. People try &amp; make gambling way too difficult. &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]

underthetotal · Answer

this is vegas site. and they are writing false there

tkf18ny · Answer

the books don&#x27;t know jackshit about who is going to win the gameif they did the people running them and setting the odds would be betting themselves instead and making tens of millions of dollars a year easilyhalf of them don&#x27;t know a double play from a double header

KeyElement · Answer

Whatever number of posts you were going to help us out with, please stop at 76

underthetotal · Answer

come on man. you work to Vegas?

underthetotal · Answer

guys... don&#x27;t forget that covers is the most popular site in the wrold in betting... so we have a lot of users from vegas industry here to tryin&#x27; to braiwash us ans steal money from us... they are opening these threads of so called trap games or public games to fool us...

duranizm · Answer

this post is good. i&#x27;m a newbie still for 2 years in betting. when i first KNEW RLM, i thought it could guarantee free cash. the more i capped some games, the more i started to feel there is NO FREE CASH in sports betting.

Tigermike1975 · Answer

Trap games are absolute nonsense, I agree. There is some validity to line moves however. For example if a game is taking in 2-1 action in volume of plays on one side and the line is moving in the other direction or staying flat, that is a good indicator that the smarter larger money is coming in the other side. Granted the smart money doesn&#x27;t always win, but often times those guys are a little smarter than the average bear. The trick to me is knowing when public perception is so heavy on side and reading the line movement. These games however are few and far between for me and much more prevalent in the lesser sport of football than this great game of baseball. My biggest beef on the site this year is the number of "this team stinks" threads in the 3rd inning when a game is only 3-0. Along with the constant whining of bullpen collapses like they are some kind of rarity, when in fact many are foreseeable with a little homework.  Best of luck and keep winning.

underthetotal · Answer

just don&#x27;t be fooled by Vegas...

underthetotal · Answer

cap your own games and you&#x27;ll be winner

underthetotal · Answer

come on man. onother VEGASE worker. don&#x27;t try to fool us dude. we are smarter then your Vegas...

underthetotal · Answer

you are right here man.

KeyElement · Answer

Nonsense. How do people cap and bet their games? The same way their teacher did, whether it was dad, an older brother, an uncle, their buddies in high school or college, whatever. Almost no one learned from a successful handicapper or professional sports gambler that was willing to share and teach. This site is the perfect example. People are taught all about era, home field advantage, obp, and trends, trends, trends. So, 90% of them get together and form a consensus on a pick and think they are home free because all their buddies think the same way. It is a case of the blind leading the blind. There are not more than five "outside the box" thinkers in this forum. They are the most successful and least read. As long as people think they "know their sports" and "know all about sports wagering" the bookies have absolutely nothing to fear, and you can take that to the bank.  &#xD;&#xA;In the long run your attempts to educate on this forum will go for naught. I am living proof. I have written many a blog similar to this one (most of them better) in the past six years. All are forgotten, discarded and ignored. Unless you are God&#x27;s own prophet you can&#x27;t change a culture. BOL in your endeavor.

underthetotal · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KeyElement]  Nonsense. How do people cap and bet their games? The same way their teacher did, whether it was dad, an older brother, an uncle, their buddies in high school or college, whatever. Almost no one learned from a successful handicapper or professional sports gambler that was willing to share and teach. This site is the perfect example. People are taught all about era, home field advantage, obp, and trends, trends, trends. So, 90% of them get together and form a consensus on a pick and think they are home free because all their buddies think the same way. It is a case of the blind leading the blind. There are not more than five "outside the box" thinkers in this forum. They are the most successful and least read. As long as people think they "know their sports" and "know all about sports wagering" the bookies have absolutely nothing to fear, and you can take that to the bank.  &#xD;&#xA;In the long run your attempts to educate on this forum will go for naught. I am living proof. I have written many a blog similar to this one (most of them better) in the past six years. All are forgotten, discarded and ignored. Unless you are God&#x27;s own prophet you can&#x27;t change a culture. BOL in your endeavor.  [/Quote] the value plays is your profit my friend. you have to know your sport to find that value. i&#x27;m not talking about all bettors. most of them 98% of bettors are just Vegas feeders

Tigermike1975 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KeyElement]  Nonsense. How do people cap and bet their games? The same way their teacher did, whether it was dad, an older brother, an uncle, their buddies in high school or college, whatever. Almost no one learned from a successful handicapper or professional sports gambler that was willing to share and teach. This site is the perfect example. People are taught all about era, home field advantage, obp, and trends, trends, trends. So, 90% of them get together and form a consensus on a pick and think they are home free because all their buddies think the same way. It is a case of the blind leading the blind. There are not more than five "outside the box" thinkers in this forum. They are the most successful and least read. As long as people think they "know their sports" and "know all about sports wagering" the bookies have absolutely nothing to fear, and you can take that to the bank.  &#xD;&#xA;In the long run your attempts to educate on this forum will go for naught. I am living proof. I have written many a blog similar to this one (most of them better) in the past six years. All are forgotten, discarded and ignored. Unless you are God&#x27;s own prophet you can&#x27;t change a culture. BOL in your endeavor.  [/Quote]You are right. We had a spirited discussion last year and I looked more into your philosophy and I have incorporated some of your underdog and stay away from big juice strategy and it has made me more successful. I still couldn&#x27;t make myself play Houston this week, you were spot on there, but I did have Minnesota twice against Boston for big plus numbers and that has made the difference for me this week. Last year this week would have been a loser for me. The number of people that have no desire or willingness to learn here amazes me. One thing my Grand father told me as a 13 year old kid 25 years ago has stayed with me forever: " Once you think you know everything about something and stop learning, quit what it is you are doing because you will never be successful with it again". Great words of wisdom to live by. There are a few good people left, as you said though you kind of have to search for them. Best of luck and keep your season going.

underthetotal · Answer

just look today. 90% public was on Washington Nationals with Nats opening as a low home favorite of -135. some started to call there is a trap. and guess what? Nationals trashed Cubbies.

NO TRAP GAMES IN MLB

underthetotal · Answer

NO TRAP GAMES IN MLB

JicJac · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KeyElement]  Nonsense. How do people cap and bet their games? The same way their teacher did, whether it was dad, an older brother, an uncle, their buddies in high school or college, whatever. Almost no one learned from a successful handicapper or professional sports gambler that was willing to share and teach. This site is the perfect example. People are taught all about era, home field advantage, obp, and trends, trends, trends. So, 90% of them get together and form a consensus on a pick and think they are home free because all their buddies think the same way. It is a case of the blind leading the blind. There are not more than five "outside the box" thinkers in this forum. They are the most successful and least read. As long as people think they "know their sports" and "know all about sports wagering" the bookies have absolutely nothing to fear, and you can take that to the bank.  &#xD;&#xA;In the long run your attempts to educate on this forum will go for naught. I am living proof. I have written many a blog similar to this one (most of them better) in the past six years. All are forgotten, discarded and ignored. Unless you are God&#x27;s own prophet you can&#x27;t change a culture. BOL in your endeavor.  [/Quote]SPOT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tkf18ny · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KeyElement]  Nonsense. How do people cap and bet their games? The same way their teacher did, whether it was dad, an older brother, an uncle, their buddies in high school or college, whatever. Almost no one learned from a successful handicapper or professional sports gambler that was willing to share and teach. This site is the perfect example. People are taught all about era, home field advantage, obp, and trends, trends, trends. So, 90% of them get together and form a consensus on a pick and think they are home free because all their buddies think the same way. It is a case of the blind leading the blind. There are not more than five "outside the box" thinkers in this forum. They are the most successful and least read. As long as people think they "know their sports" and "know all about sports wagering" the bookies have absolutely nothing to fear, and you can take that to the bank.  &#xD;&#xA;In the long run your attempts to educate on this forum will go for naught. I am living proof. I have written many a blog similar to this one (most of them better) in the past six years. All are forgotten, discarded and ignored. Unless you are God&#x27;s own prophet you can&#x27;t change a culture. BOL in your endeavor.  [/Quote]95 pct of people who watch baseball don&#x27;t know jackshit about baseball. The thing a pitchers win/loss record or saves matter,dont take the lineup or defense into account when "capping".To top it off most people are terrible gamblers who dont shop for good lines. Hell a ton of people on here are perfectly contect betting on a team at -120 or -140, if it moves to -140 they just put more money on it.They think short term and seriously think they have a huge edge whenever they make a bet. How many people even try to honestly figure out what their ROI is? Hell I&#x27;ve seen people on here that want to bet 500-1000 bucks a night and seriously think they can average 100 bucks a night from betting on baseball. Not to mention the gimmicky systems people try and come up with "the pirates are 14-5 in the last ten years when playing a game at noon  on the third tuesday of the month- this is a lock" and stupid garbage along those lines. Not to mention the shock and outrage they have whenever the bullpen blows a lead for them, as though they never win a game when they were trailing late.

tkf18ny · Answer

They think a pitchers win/loss record or saves matter,dont take the lineup or defense into account when "capping".*This site really needs to have an option to edit posts.

dkd29 · Answer

MARINERS -1.5 &#x2B;180?

''Trap games'', ''Reverse line movement betting'', ''Betting against the public consesus %''

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