Money Ball 5.03.2013

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.02.2013, 4-0, +18.99 Units, +94.4% ROI

YTD – 68-78-12, -24.75 Units, -3.45% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Mariners F5 (-135) F5 (-127) (Hernandez / Romero)

I suppose I will get crucified for saying this, but the Mariners have a higher potential offensive probability tonight than do the Blue Jays. OK, bring it on, but they have faired better versus lefty in mostly West Coast pitchers parks than the Jays have versus righty in mostly Eastern hitters parks. Maybe Romero is rejuvenated, maybe not, but at his prior major league level he was far less than average, so if he has worked out some of his problems and has achieved average major league level that still is not good enough to pit him against Hernandez.

Mets F5 (+155) FG (+170) (Marcum / Minor)

Don’t look now, but the Braves offense has disappeared. Of the last 15 versus righty they were 4-3-1 the first 8 and are 0-4-3 the last 8, scoring just 2.37 earned runs per 9 innings. Blame it on the schedule if you want but the schedule, although good, has not been exceedingly tough. Who is to say they immediately rebound? Who is to say that at 3-4-3 with an oera of 4.6 per 9 the Mets are not right in this? At a much lower line I might not play, but considering there is no way I can grant the Braves a better than 64.3% chance of winning, so I can break even, the big money dog is definitely worthy of the play. Minor is better than Marcum but that does not nearly cover the big margin. Bow Wow.

Possibly one more later but I need a little more info and a little more line movement.

BOL

DAVIDN - So as not to bump the other thread ahead of this one I will answer here. I see no value in Houston tonight. You have to figure both lineups are tired but the Tigers is still better than the Astros and Fister should eat them alive. I like Norris in the right spots but this isn't one of them. jmho.

Pardon me, 18.89 units, another typo, but my spread sheet is all formula and has to be correct, I just enter the results.

Key,

What are your thoughts on the Mia - Phi F5. Nolasco has pitched well against Philly at Philly and there is still plus money with the RL.

BTW, I like the over 3.5 (F5) in the NY-ATL game.  

Thanks and good luck