Money Ball 5.02.2013

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI 

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

5.01.2013, 2-1, +8.5 Units, +56.7% ROI

YTD – 64-78-12, -453.64 Units, -6.25% ROI

5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted

Red Sox F5 (-127) F5 (-122) (Dempster / Happ)

For some unexplainable reason bettors have a negative view of Dempster. I have news for them; he is just as rejuvenated as the rest of that team. We keep hearing the Jays will be just fine when they get this guy or that guy back, but that is happening with no visible results. If we had too low an opinion of one team and too high of the other to begin the season, well, this is May 2, 2013, and we just better get over it. Dempster is ahead of Happ at this point and he has the superior offense behind him. Thanks very much to the folks that place so much faith in “at home” as they have created a very favorable line.   

Orioles F5 (+105) FG (+112) (Tillman / Blanton)

“Fly ball Joe” laying the juice versus a team that can actually hit? What is wrong with that picture? I am not the biggest Tillman fan in the world but his last couple outings have been impressive and Blanton has not yet turned in an above average performance this season. His team is 0-5 when he takes the ball and have failed to impress anyone with anything but their payroll. Payroll doesn’t win games, player performance does. False favorite.

BOL

Key,

I was curious. I know you stated that one of your rules is to never take the home team on the RL. At what point would you take a road team favorite on the RL?

Good luck tonight

Thanks Key,

I was looking at the under 4.5 (F5) based on a couple of things. Boston is only batting .239 against lefties (and they've put up some good stats lately against poor lefties). Happ shut Boston out in Toronto (F5) earlier this year. Happ threw a bad game his last time at home and I think he comes back with a much better effort. The Blue Jays are hitting only .224 against righties, so I don't expect much, if any scoring from them. 

"His team is 0-5 when he takes the ball and have failed to impress anyone with anything but their payroll."

Isn't this a "trend"?