Posted:
#1
41-36 YTD
The Reds pulled one out of their butt last nite! It's nice to be on the right side of a crazy ending
I'm starting with Game 1 in Colorado
ATL/COL Over 9.5 +105 (Francis/Minor)
We all know what we're going to get out of gas-can Francis. He has bad numbers at home, and bad numbers against Atlanta (6.49 ERA and a .351 BAA career vs. the Bravos). Atlanta should be able to score today. The question is, will Colorado score against Minor? Heck yeah they will. Minor is a fly-ball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of .61 so far this season. Colorado bats .283 against LHP, and making contact vs. a fly-ball pitcher IN Denver should lead to a bad day for Mr. Minor. It reminds me of yesterday's scenario with AJ Griffin (another fly-ball pitcher) getting smoked at Fenway. This should be a slug-fest
COL ML +110
Speaking of AJ Griffin and the A's yesterday, I was on the A's and was dead wrong. I had all these stats about the A's hitting lefties, owning Doubront, blah blah and another capper here named KVegas simply pointed out that AJ Griffin is a fly ball pitcher in a band box (Fenway), and will get crushed. He was right, I was wrong. I'm not making that mistake again. GB/FB ratio is a highly situational stat that only carries a lot of weight in certain parks. Colorado is one of them. Given how well the Rockies are playing at home (8-1) in combination with how badly the Braves are struggling lately (lost 4 out of 5 batting .209), I'll take a shot at a hot home team getting plus money.
Good luck! Probably will have more later
The Reds pulled one out of their butt last nite! It's nice to be on the right side of a crazy ending
I'm starting with Game 1 in Colorado
ATL/COL Over 9.5 +105 (Francis/Minor)
We all know what we're going to get out of gas-can Francis. He has bad numbers at home, and bad numbers against Atlanta (6.49 ERA and a .351 BAA career vs. the Bravos). Atlanta should be able to score today. The question is, will Colorado score against Minor? Heck yeah they will. Minor is a fly-ball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of .61 so far this season. Colorado bats .283 against LHP, and making contact vs. a fly-ball pitcher IN Denver should lead to a bad day for Mr. Minor. It reminds me of yesterday's scenario with AJ Griffin (another fly-ball pitcher) getting smoked at Fenway. This should be a slug-fest
COL ML +110
Speaking of AJ Griffin and the A's yesterday, I was on the A's and was dead wrong. I had all these stats about the A's hitting lefties, owning Doubront, blah blah and another capper here named KVegas simply pointed out that AJ Griffin is a fly ball pitcher in a band box (Fenway), and will get crushed. He was right, I was wrong. I'm not making that mistake again. GB/FB ratio is a highly situational stat that only carries a lot of weight in certain parks. Colorado is one of them. Given how well the Rockies are playing at home (8-1) in combination with how badly the Braves are struggling lately (lost 4 out of 5 batting .209), I'll take a shot at a hot home team getting plus money.
Good luck! Probably will have more later
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