If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.22.2013, 2-4, -10.43 Units, -34.8% ROI
YTD – 50-53-10, +2.91 Units, +.0057% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Braves F5 (-125) FG (-114) (Minor / Francis)
The temporary loss of Heyward is not that big of a deal. He has been struggling at the plate anyway and in 25 at bats (27 plate appearances) he is hitting only .120 with an obp of .185 and 1 rbi versus lefty. Almost any chosen replacement would have at least as good a prospectus and may try harder if he feels he has a better shot with the club if he comes through in the clutch. You just never know. Pastornicky comes to mind but he is not a natural outfielder. Gattis is another possibility and both of those guys are hitting lefty better than Heyward. The Uptons will take over center and right and left field is not as critical or as difficult to play. The important thing here is for Minor to dominate Francis, the rest should not be difficult.
I will probably be back with something else later but have to go out for a while.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
4.22.2013, 2-4, -10.43 Units, -34.8% ROI
YTD – 50-53-10, +2.91 Units, +.0057% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – 4/22/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Braves F5 (-125) FG (-114) (Minor / Francis)
The temporary loss of Heyward is not that big of a deal. He has been struggling at the plate anyway and in 25 at bats (27 plate appearances) he is hitting only .120 with an obp of .185 and 1 rbi versus lefty. Almost any chosen replacement would have at least as good a prospectus and may try harder if he feels he has a better shot with the club if he comes through in the clutch. You just never know. Pastornicky comes to mind but he is not a natural outfielder. Gattis is another possibility and both of those guys are hitting lefty better than Heyward. The Uptons will take over center and right and left field is not as critical or as difficult to play. The important thing here is for Minor to dominate Francis, the rest should not be difficult.
I will probably be back with something else later but have to go out for a while.
Key you like Milk.tonight? A hot team against one thats not,-125 is a good price here IMO. Missed your Atl.play,to early for me,GL on it,nice start in it.
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Key you like Milk.tonight? A hot team against one thats not,-125 is a good price here IMO. Missed your Atl.play,to early for me,GL on it,nice start in it.
Ktrain -I would love to do that but have a lot more respect for Scherzer than Davis. Old stats are not that important to me. Coming off the disappointment in Anaheim and with a day off I think the Tigers come out to play tonight. Value is with the Royals but I give them only about a 40% chance tonight.
JEG - Very close to pulling the Trigger on the Brewers. Back soon. Hope you haven't gone to work already.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Ktrain -I would love to do that but have a lot more respect for Scherzer than Davis. Old stats are not that important to me. Coming off the disappointment in Anaheim and with a day off I think the Tigers come out to play tonight. Value is with the Royals but I give them only about a 40% chance tonight.
JEG - Very close to pulling the Trigger on the Brewers. Back soon. Hope you haven't gone to work already.
Ktrain -I would love to do that but have a lot more respect for Scherzer than Davis. Old stats are not that important to me. Coming off the disappointment in Anaheim and with a day off I think the Tigers come out to play tonight. Value is with the Royals but I give them only about a 40% chance tonight.
JEG - Very close to pulling the Trigger on the Brewers. Back soon. Hope you haven't gone to work already.
I don't put much value in trends in Baseball (i.e. the Yankees have won x games straight on Sunday afternoon or Player Y has lost three straight games etc) however these numbers are primarily against the guys he will be facing tonight.
The Tigers can come out focused and ready to play all they want but if they haven't had much success against Davis in the past (with a pretty good sample size of course) then they are likely not going to succeed against him again.
I always value your opinion and enjoy reading about your approach to capping games and I completely agree with your method of seeking value against the line.
Correct me if I am wrong but if you give the Royals a 40% chance of winning then they are getting value at being priced around +165 or so since they line should be at +150
Looking forward to the rest of your plays tonight and, as always, BOL.
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Ktrain -I would love to do that but have a lot more respect for Scherzer than Davis. Old stats are not that important to me. Coming off the disappointment in Anaheim and with a day off I think the Tigers come out to play tonight. Value is with the Royals but I give them only about a 40% chance tonight.
JEG - Very close to pulling the Trigger on the Brewers. Back soon. Hope you haven't gone to work already.
I don't put much value in trends in Baseball (i.e. the Yankees have won x games straight on Sunday afternoon or Player Y has lost three straight games etc) however these numbers are primarily against the guys he will be facing tonight.
The Tigers can come out focused and ready to play all they want but if they haven't had much success against Davis in the past (with a pretty good sample size of course) then they are likely not going to succeed against him again.
I always value your opinion and enjoy reading about your approach to capping games and I completely agree with your method of seeking value against the line.
Correct me if I am wrong but if you give the Royals a 40% chance of winning then they are getting value at being priced around +165 or so since they line should be at +150
Looking forward to the rest of your plays tonight and, as always, BOL.
Reversal of dynamic here. Rockies should bounce back in a Teheran-Garland matchup.
Brewers FG (-126) (Gallardo / Richard)
No F5 play here as the line has exploded in the wrong direction, with which I agree but it kills the value of the play. Somebody dropped a ton of $$ on the first 5 and I do hope he is right because if we go to the last 4 with a lead it relieves a lot of the bullpen worry. A lead at the end of 5 or 6 is always better than having the better bullpen.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Rockies F5 (-121) FG (-119) (Teheran / Garland
Reversal of dynamic here. Rockies should bounce back in a Teheran-Garland matchup.
Brewers FG (-126) (Gallardo / Richard)
No F5 play here as the line has exploded in the wrong direction, with which I agree but it kills the value of the play. Somebody dropped a ton of $$ on the first 5 and I do hope he is right because if we go to the last 4 with a lead it relieves a lot of the bullpen worry. A lead at the end of 5 or 6 is always better than having the better bullpen.
I always value your opinion and enjoy reading about your approach to capping games and I completely agree with your method of seeking value against the line.
Correct me if I am wrong but if you give the Royals a 40% chance of winning then they are getting value at being priced around +165 or so since they line should be at +150
Looking forward to the rest of your plays tonight and, as always, BOL.
OK, to be exact the Royals need a 37.74% or better chance of winning to be playable at +165, and my exact probability is 41.7% so there is margin toward the Royals, but I just don't like the matchup or the situation, so I am passing, but the Royals are the value side if a guy wants to play that game. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:
I always value your opinion and enjoy reading about your approach to capping games and I completely agree with your method of seeking value against the line.
Correct me if I am wrong but if you give the Royals a 40% chance of winning then they are getting value at being priced around +165 or so since they line should be at +150
Looking forward to the rest of your plays tonight and, as always, BOL.
OK, to be exact the Royals need a 37.74% or better chance of winning to be playable at +165, and my exact probability is 41.7% so there is margin toward the Royals, but I just don't like the matchup or the situation, so I am passing, but the Royals are the value side if a guy wants to play that game. BOL
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