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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Mavin's MLB Contest
SportsMavin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SportsMavin
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#76
Posted: 4/1/2013 8:42:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phixer:


after today's win 1k

47-34-3

+30,560 $

33-17-2 solid big plays +31030 $     (it was 32 wins previously and not 32 as wrongly copied)
4-6-1 medium plays -390 $
10-10 small plays -80 $
Thanks for asking people to be precise on their record. Mantime here's correction to yours

47-33-3

Check it if you have to. Other day I checked it after Turbo's remark about it. Although he meant the push record - I had to go through all of it. You actually have a better record than one I corrected

quote
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#77
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:18:43 PM
KCsFinest829 0-0 0$

KC Royals ML +115

SEA Mariners ML +100

PIT Pirates -127

(please pay attention to small corrections I have made on your format. This is done to make it easier for mke to copy paste your picks rather than digging and correcting. Also taking into consideration that at the end of the day I will have to calculate all the wins and losses including money - I am asking all to follow my instructions and corrections regarding formatting in a precise matter)

SportsMavin  0-0  0$

NY Yankees TT Over 4  +105

SimonDog  0-0  0$

WAS Nationals ML  -250

CHI Cubs ML  +107

ATL Braves ML  -117

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

dewall21  0-0 $0

MIN Twins ML  +165

Over 7  MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -115

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

ElyBroker  0-0  0$

NY Yankees ML  -105

TheGoldenGoose   0-0   $0

BOS Red Sox ML  +100

NY Mets ML  -140     

LA Angels ML  +101

(Please format your future picks precisely following the way I did it)

quote
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#78
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:19:34 PM
MikeTeezy and TheGoldenGoose

Great work
quote
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#79
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:41:05 PM
1/1

Teemosanchez  0-0   0$

KC Royals ML +125

WAS Nationals ML-265  
(today I will allow any kind of odds but the subject will be discussed and the decision will be made pending future in regard of such juiced picks)

DET Tigers RL-125

Sickcallref 0-0  $0

Under 6.5 OAK A's - SEA Mariners-115

Under 6 LA Dodgers - SF Giants  +105

WAS Nationals  -1.5  -125

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

sterlingsilver  0-0  0$

KC Royals ML  +125

PIT Pirates ML  -124

DET Tigers ML  -192

(today I will allow any kind of odds but the subject will be discussed and the decision will be made pending future in regard of such juiced picks)

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

 Nieldellacrose 0-0  0$

 COL Rockies ML +135

 Under 6.5 SEA Mariners - OAK A's  -110

 Under 7.5 CHI Cubs -  PIT Pirates  -110

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

gdawg6246  0-0  0$

MIA Marlins +1.5 (RL) -105

MIN Twins +1.5 (RL) -105

ATL Braves ML  -108

(pay close attention the way I formatted your picks and present them in the future in precisely formatted manner. Any deviation will result in not posting them for a contest)

quote
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#80
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:42:08 PM

1/2

nartalieportman9  0-0  0$

BOS Red Sox ML +105

SD Padres ML +130

KC Royals ML +125

(your full nick, record and money record please)

whitemamba2  0-0  0$

PIT Pirates ML -120

NY Mets ML -127

Over 7  WAS Nationals - MIA Marlins -115

(pay close attention the way I formatted your picks and present them in the future in precisely formatted manner. Any deviation will result in not posting them for a contest)

KaiserWilhelm  0-0  0$

Under 8 NY Yankees-BOS Red Sox -109

Musicmatt1  0-0  0$

 

WAS Nationals  -1.5  -125

 

PIT Pirates ML  -128

 

DET Tigers  -1.5  -125


washhead  0-0  $0

Under 4.0 (5 innings) MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -125


MikeTizzy  0-0  0$

 

CHI Cubs ML +111

 

OVER 7.5 COL Rockies - MIL Brewers  -110     

 

DET Tigers  -1.5  - 115

quote
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#81
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:43:59 PM
1/3

KCsFinest829 0-0 0$

KC Royals ML +115

SEA Mariners ML +100

PIT Pirates -127

(please pay attention to small corrections I have made on your format. This is done to make it easier for mke to copy paste your picks rather than digging and correcting. Also taking into consideration that at the end of the day I will have to calculate all the wins and losses including money - I am asking all to follow my instructions and corrections regarding formatting in a precise matter)

SportsMavin  0-0  0$

NY Yankees TT Over 4  +105

SimonDog  0-0  0$

WAS Nationals ML  -250

CHI Cubs ML  +107    

ATL Braves ML  -117

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

dewall21  0-0 $0

MIN Twins ML  +165

Over 7  MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -115

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

ElyBroker  0-0  0$

NY Yankees ML  -105

TheGoldenGoose   0-0   $0

BOS Red Sox ML  +100

NY Mets ML  -140     

LA Angels ML  +101

(Please format your future picks precisely following the way I did it)

quote
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#82
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:45:59 PM
1/4

NeverMind  0-0   0$

SD Padres ML +131

CIN Reds  ML  -107

KC Royals ML  +110

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

40acresmafia 0-0 $0

WAS Nationals -1.5 -125

 

KC Royals ML  +120

 

DET Tigers -1.5 -125


greengiants 0-0  0$

Under 7.5 NY Mets - SD Padres -113

Over 8 NY Yankees - BOS Redsox +102

Over 6.5 OAK Athletics - SEA Mariners -110

Babooshki 0-0  0$

SD Padres ML  +130

CHI Cubs ML  -110

Under 7.5  PIT Pirates - CHI Cubs  -110

(Please have it formatted for a future picks precisely as I did it for you today)

AshyLarryMP 0-0 $0

OAK Athletics ML -110

LA Dodgers ML -143

CIN Reds ML -113

phixer 0-0  0$

Under 6  LA Dodgers - SF Giants  +100

pucku27  0-0  0$

DET Pistons -1.5  -110

SF Giants ML  +136

Over 7.5 CIN Reds - LA Angels +105

(Please have it formatted for a future picks precisely as I did it for you today)

quote
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#83
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:47:47 PM
MikeTeezy, SimonDog and TheGoldenGoose

Great work
quote
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#84
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:49:24 PM
Great job goes to everyone participating and making an effort to better himself and not only to those who swept 3 games. But still they deserve some extra good word
quote
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#85
Posted: 4/1/2013 11:13:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Great job goes to everyone participating and making an effort to better himself and not only to those who swept 3 games. But still they deserve some extra good word

Great job to you as well sir!  A great showing for opening day.

quote
SickCallREf
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#86
Posted: 4/2/2013 1:47:46 AM

In reguard to playing the the big chalk.The way I see it if you're not confident enough to play the -1.5 when your side is so heavily favored, you definately shouldn't be risking a play on the side.

Your gut or your numbers or whatever tells you that a one run game is highly likely so you aren't willing to lay the 1.5 but you're willing to lay the -150. You need to hit six of every ten just to break even at those odds. Use the runline get +150 and four of ten will get you even.

 

 

quote
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#87
Posted: 4/2/2013 2:27:09 AM
1-2 start for me. Long grind it out season. I wanna focus on one game that I really like and see what the forum thinks on it.

Toronto Bluejays vs Cleveland Indians

A lot of changes to both teams here. Toronto adds Dickey who gets the start as well as Reyes, Melky, Izturis and some pitchers. Cleveland adds Bourne, Swisher, Myers, and Reynolds among others. The key to what I am seeing is in the pitching matchup. RA Dickey comes over from the Mets. A true knuckle baller who had immense success last year. Cleveland did not face a true knuckler last season so unfamiliarity may play a factor. Dickey also has only played with his catcher a few times in the WBC. 

Major factor for me is on the other side in Masterson vs the Toronto lineup. Masterson struggled in spring with the exception of a decent stretch at the end, but he has always struggled against lefties. Last years splits for him:
vs RHB 332 AB's with a .232 avg, .308 OBP, .304 SLG
vs LHB 456 AB's with a .296 avg, .376 OBP, .450 SLG
Using a projected lineup Toronto there are 3 righties, 2 lefties, and 4 switch hitters. All of those switch hitters have taken more attempts as lefties than righties and 3 of the 4 in Reyes, Bonafacio, and Izturis are much better batting lefty, (Melky had better numbers as a righty last year). Against this lineup with up to 6/9 batting lefty against Masterson I don't see him lasting long. Toronto is a pretty neutral field not favoring batters or pitchers. 

IMO Toronto is a strong play. However, the Toronto TT over is an even stronger play in my mind. I do not doubt at all that Toronto will put up runs in this one. I am unsure of how the Indians will hit the knuckle and that may make me a bit weary of the side in this one. Anyone know if Cleveland has faced a true knuckler with anyone in this lineup?

For purposes of the contest I will most likely be on both of these plays, but would love to discuss with anyone before I lay my money down.

BOL to the forum
quote
ashylarrymp
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#88
Posted: 4/2/2013 4:55:50 AM
good post KCsfinest829 really feel you covered most angles on why bjays would beat up on Masterson.. i know this isn't your daddy's bluejays.  BUT masterson did play them twice last year and combined 2 starts: 15ip 1er 15k's..1 of the starts @TOR he went 7ip 0er 5h..perhaps he just likes the way the mound feels there? never know lol we know that masterson is wildly inconsistent but part of the inconsistencies is a few gems trickled in here and there.. with that said i still like the Bluejays.. just pointing out some reasons why masterson would MAYBE throw well tomorrow..
with that said RA DICKEYS NUMBERS IN DOMES cannot be denied.. i know for a fact Toronto's roof will be closed tomorrow.. RA had it in his contract that they close it for him, he likes the way his knuckleball flutters in domes lol.. but here's his starts in dome stadiums or retractable roofs last season only:
@HOU Apr 30th: 6ip 3h 3er 6 k's
@TB Jun 13th: 9ip 1h 1r 0er  12 k's
@ARZ jul 29th: 7ip 4h 1r 0er 8k's

small sample size but other than the 1st start (which is still a quality start) they were gems. here's dickeys take on throwing in domes.

If the roof is left open on a hot day and then closed just before game time, the humidity is trapped inside without much circulation, he explained. "It's hard to throw a knuckleball in that environment," he said. The good news is that rarely happens in domes. And it is unlikely to happen here, where the Blue Jays have their finger on the roof remote, so to speak.

"I usually have fairly good numbers inside domes — traditionally," Dickey said. "Here in particular, going off (Sunday's) knuckleball on the game mound and the conditions that were here (Sunday), I'm encouraged. That's all I'm saying. I'm not making any predictions but it felt good coming out of my hand and that's a good sign." (Ottawa Citizen)

i guess what im saying is i like the bluejays a lot too.. BUT just in case masterson does like the feel of that mound maybe Under 3.5 or 4 runs (whatever it opens at) TT for the indians? i trust dickey at this point, we'd just be relying on the relievers to hold it down.. maybe play both run totals if you believe masterson will suck? would love to hear anyone's thoughts on my thoughts.. 
once again loved the post! just bouncing ideas. 

quote
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#89
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:07:46 AM
1/1

Teemosanchez  0-0   0$

KC Royals ML +125

WAS Nationals ML-265  
(today I will allow any kind of odds but the subject will be discussed and the decision will be made pending future in regard of such juiced picks)

DET Tigers RL-125

Sickcallref 0-0  $0

Under 6.5 OAK A's - SEA Mariners-115

Under 6 LA Dodgers - SF Giants  +105

WAS Nationals  -1.5  -125

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

sterlingsilver  0-0  0$

KC Royals ML  +125

PIT Pirates ML  -124

DET Tigers ML  -192

(today I will allow any kind of odds but the subject will be discussed and the decision will be made pending future in regard of such juiced picks)

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

 Nieldellacrose 0-0  0$

 COL Rockies ML +135

 Under 6.5 SEA Mariners - OAK A's  -110

 Under 7.5 CHI Cubs -  PIT Pirates  -110

(please format your future picks according to my corrections)

gdawg6246  0-0  0$

MIA Marlins +1.5 (RL) -105

MIN Twins +1.5 (RL) -105

ATL Braves ML  -108

(pay close attention the way I formatted your picks and present them in the future in precisely formatted manner. Any deviation will result in not posting them for a contest)

quote
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#90
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:08:26 AM

1/2

nartalieportman9  0-0  0$

BOS Red Sox ML +105

SD Padres ML +130

KC Royals ML +125

(your full nick, record and money record please)

whitemamba2  0-0  0$

PIT Pirates ML -120

NY Mets ML -127

Over 7  WAS Nationals - MIA Marlins -115

(pay close attention the way I formatted your picks and present them in the future in precisely formatted manner. Any deviation will result in not posting them for a contest)

KaiserWilhelm  0-0  0$

Under 8 NY Yankees-BOS Red Sox -109

Musicmatt1  0-0  0$

 

WAS Nationals  -1.5  -125

 

PIT Pirates ML  -128

 

DET Tigers  -1.5  -125


washhead  0-0  $0

Under 4.0 (5 innings) MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -125


MikeTizzy  0-0  0$

 

CHI Cubs ML +111

 

OVER 7.5 COL Rockies - MIL Brewers  -110     

 

DET Tigers  -1.5  - 115

quote
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#91
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:09:08 AM
1/3

KCsFinest829 0-0 0$

KC Royals ML +115

SEA Mariners ML +100

PIT Pirates -127

(please pay attention to small corrections I have made on your format. This is done to make it easier for mke to copy paste your picks rather than digging and correcting. Also taking into consideration that at the end of the day I will have to calculate all the wins and losses including money - I am asking all to follow my instructions and corrections regarding formatting in a precise matter)

SportsMavin  0-0  0$

NY Yankees TT Over 4  +105

SimonDog  0-0  0$

WAS Nationals ML  -250

CHI Cubs ML  +107    

ATL Braves ML  -117

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

dewall21  0-0 $0

MIN Twins ML  +165

Over 7  MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -115

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

ElyBroker  0-0  0$

NY Yankees ML  -105

TheGoldenGoose   0-0   $0

BOS Red Sox ML  +100

NY Mets ML  -140     

LA Angels ML  +101

(Please format your future picks precisely following the way I did it)

quote
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#92
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:10:03 AM
1/4

NeverMind  0-0   0$

SD Padres ML +131

CIN Reds  ML  -107

KC Royals ML  +110

(Please pay close attention to the formatting I did to your picks and present them in the future in precisely similar format)

40acresmafia 0-0 $0

WAS Nationals -1.5 -125

 

KC Royals ML  +120

 

DET Tigers -1.5 -125


greengiants 0-0  0$

Under 7.5 NY Mets - SD Padres -113

Over 8 NY Yankees - BOS Redsox +102

Over 6.5 OAK Athletics - SEA Mariners -110

Babooshki 0-0  0$

SD Padres ML  +130

CHI Cubs ML  -110

Under 7.5  PIT Pirates - CHI Cubs  -110

(Please have it formatted for a future picks precisely as I did it for you today)

AshyLarryMP 0-0 $0

OAK Athletics ML -110

LA Dodgers ML -143

CIN Reds ML -113

phixer 0-0  0$

Under 6  LA Dodgers - SF Giants  +100

pucku27  0-0  0$

DET Pistons -1.5  -110

SF Giants ML  +136

Over 7.5 CIN Reds - LA Angels +105

(Please have it formatted for a future picks precisely as I did it for you today)

quote
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#93
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:13:29 AM
1/1
9-6
+271$

Sickcallref 


quote
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#94
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:16:39 AM
1/2
8-6
+144$

MikeTizzy  
quote
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#95
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:20:02 AM
1/3
7-6
+61$

SimonDog 

TheGoldenGoose  
quote
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#96
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:22:43 AM
1/4
9-10
-141$
quote
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#97
Posted: 4/2/2013 7:32:13 AM
1

33-28

+335$

*This is an initial recap and counting and since the system is not automated here and I did not yet automated externally  - you're welcome to run your checks and submit corrections if any.

**I want to thank and congratulate every single of you for taking your time to participate and giving it your best shot. I am confident that if you follow up on your picks and compare the results and game notes to those written before the game and will be honest with yourself - you will improve your analyzing skills from game to game and the process of replacing the word "gambling" by "handicapping" will start.

GL to all and keep discussing games that were and will be . In this instance the term"keep digging Sherlock" is a complimentary one
quote
greengiants
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#98
Posted: 4/2/2013 9:21:10 AM

KCfinest I agree with your post 100%, Dickey in a dome, no wind or humidity to affect his knuckleball!

quote
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#99
Posted: 4/2/2013 9:22:14 AM

quick question Mavin, can we use the runlines for the contest?

 

quote
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#100
Posted: 4/2/2013 9:46:45 AM
Do we keep posting picks here.. or on a new link
quote
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