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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Mavin's MLB Contest
Musicmatt1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Musicmatt1
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#351
Posted: 4/7/2013 12:41:36 PM

Musicmatt1  13-4  +893$

 

PHI Phillies  ML  -135

 

BOS Red Sox  ML  +107

 

Under 7  SF Giants - STL Cardinals  -125

 

950th win for Charlie.  The fans in Philly love Cole and he loves them.  That's why he came back.

 

Red Sox club house wasn't very tight the last 2 years...  If they want to start this season off differently, they need to win this series for their Manager!

 

Anything Zito can do, Cain can do better.  Seriously, just think the teams took advantage of the 5th starter yesterday, back to the norm.

Great Job Gents!

I also liked the Over in Cincy but I am not sure what it means about an Ump that has more Over Games than Under?

quote
greengiants
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#352
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:02:40 PM
greengiants 9-7 +293$

SEA Mariners ML +146

I believe Iwakuma will get the better of Sale today, Seattle offense will be able to put up a few runs vs. Sale and a few more vs. the bullpen.

Under 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins

I'm pretty much chasing the under since there were two overs in the series already, Marlins young phenom on the hill today , I think he impresses.

MIL Brewers ML +101

I don't believe the d-backs will sweep this series.Gallardo is 6-0 lifetime vs. arizona, plus he excels during the day at home.Strong performance by gallardo leads the brewers to victory.

best of luck today everyone!  
quote
CP74 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#353
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:04:21 PM
Dickey should have a better outting and Lester is a tough lefty

Strasburg at that short a line... I'll bite

CP74  

Under 8 TOR Blue Jays-BOS Red Sox -110

WAS Nationals -115


quote
SickCallREf
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#354
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:05:43 PM

SickCallREf  9-4  +716

Under 6.5 DET Tigers - NY Yankees +135

Most popular over today...Big step up in competition today for both clubs. I like C.C. and Justin to bring thier A games today.

Under 6.5 MIL Brewers - ARZ D-Backs +165

This is another play on the starting pitchers. Braun is still out and the Brewers are hitting the ball very well. Counting on Gallardo to put out the flames for the Brew Crew and at least give them a chance.

STL Cardinals +116

I like Adam to bounce back in this one. A few Cardinals have had some success vs Cain. We'll see. GL everyone!

quote
greengiants
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#355
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:05:49 PM
damn forgot my line on the under......


Under 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins -101


quote
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#356
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:06:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CP74:

Dickey should have a better outting and Lester is a tough lefty

Strasburg at that short a line... I'll bite

CP74    4-1   +$315

Under 8 TOR Blue Jays-BOS Red Sox -110

WAS Nationals -115


quote
greengiants
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#357
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:08:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CP74:

Dickey should have a better outting and Lester is a tough lefty

Strasburg at that short a line... I'll bite

CP74  

Under 8 TOR Blue Jays-BOS Red Sox -110

WAS Nationals -115



your new avatar is hilarious CP!
quote
natalieportman9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#358
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:28:23 PM
Red Sox 5-0 before getting an out?  ouch Dickey
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#359
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:36:43 PM
Rookie starter vs Hammel who struggled first start and still got win

CP74  

BAL Orioles -1.5 +110
quote
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#360
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:40:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greengiants:


your new avatar is hilarious CP!

Thx gg. 
Was starting to flatten out in NBA after a solid 3 week run and decided to go at the books gangster style!! I'm back on the horse and galloping since I changed it!!

quote
SickCallREf
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#361
Posted: 4/7/2013 1:56:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by natalieportman9:

I like this pick, but I have to say, be careful.  I was on the under 8 yesterday and that 5th inning by the A's killed me.  Peacock left early which wasn't a good sign and then when the score was 3-1, an inning ending double play ball gets booted and another 4 runs, 3 unearned come across.  Defence and bullpen highly suspect for Houston.  Good luck and keep it rolling SCR!

Yep...nice lay off   I don't account for defense like I should in my capping. Thanks for the thought. I put it in my notes. Good Luck today!

quote
SickCallREf
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#362
Posted: 4/7/2013 2:05:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:


good job today buddy!  nice call on SD there.. thought id piggy back some of your thoughts for others.. 

cliff lees last 5 starts vs the braves: 38 IP 4er 37 k's!

needless to say i like the pick and your whole reasoning in general.. good luck man!

Thanks...Good Luck to you this year! Can't wait to see Cliff in Atlanta again! Impressive stuff!!!

quote
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#363
Posted: 4/7/2013 2:29:28 PM
Stupid bets by me again. I always have problems when "aces" on the mound. I need to stop betting against the grain just because a team's #1 takes the mound. Lesson learned.
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SportsMavin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#364
Posted: 4/7/2013 2:41:12 PM
SimonDog  16-1-1  +1677$

WAS Nationals ML -115

KC Royals       ML  +108

NY Mets         ML   -145

(Better the record more interest you generate in your thinking process and they want to know why's and how come's. For you too it will better if you reasoned your picks for comparing it to the ones you'd take after the game)

Musicmatt1  13-4  +893$

 

PHI Phillies  ML  -135

 

BOS Red Sox  ML  +107

 

Under 7  SF Giants - STL Cardinals  -125


SickCallREf  9-4  +716

Under 6.5 DET Tigers - NY Yankees +135

Under 6.5 MIL Brewers - ARZ D-Backs +165

STL Cardinals +116

Jmill33  5-1 +370$

BAL Orioles -170

COL Rockies -150

BOS Red Sox +115

CP74    4-1   +$315

Under 8 TOR Blue Jays-BOS Red Sox -110

WAS Nationals -115

BAL Orioles -1.5 +110

greengiants 9-7 +293$


SEA Mariners ML +146

Under 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins -101

MIL Brewers ML +101

KCsFinest829 9-8 +133


CHI Cubs ML +125

Over 8 BOS Red Sox - TOR Blue Jays +100

NY Yankees ML +176

(leave those decisions to me. Don't make counting decisions - only correct if needed. So, instead of 115 you won 100. No big deal)

KaiserWilhelm   2-1 +75 $

DET Tigers -1.5 +115

Under 7 CIN Reds - WAS Nationals -137

washhead 3-2 +50$

Under 5.0 1st 5 Inn BAL Orioles - MIN Twins -110


quote
SportsMavin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#365
Posted: 4/7/2013 2:41:36 PM
7/2

natalieportman9 8-9  +20$

TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +155

LA Dodgers -1.5 +125

DET Tigers -1.5 +105

AshyLarryMP 9-8 -$18:

Under 7.5 HOU Astros - OAK Athletics +100

Under 7 SF Giants - STL Cardinals -125

COL Rockies -1.5 +130

BigUnit  0-0   0$

LA Angels ML +125

CIN Reds ML +100

CHI Cubs ML +128

jackson0780 0-0 $

CIN Reds -110

PHI Phillies -130

SF Giants -126

(make sure it'\s formatted next time)

quote
SickCallREf
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#366
Posted: 4/7/2013 3:37:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by natalieportman9:

What are everyone's opinions on taking the run line with home teams? 

For me it's all about the pitching matchups. If I feel that I have a big enough advantage with the home starter or the bullpen I will risk it. Obviously there is more value in taking a road team -1.5 for you are guaranteed 27 outs as long as the game goes nine. And you don't have to worry about going into the ninth up by one run in need of a miracle. In any event that I like a low scoring game(7 runs or less) I must have supreme confidence in the home staff.

I almost got greedy yesterday with the Whitesox. Something like +410 on the -2.5....-1.5 +270. I liked the game under the total so I laid off the RL. Even with good enough batter history vs Hernandez, I just didn't feel there was a chance of Seattle getting shutout even though historically Felixs' run support is miserable on average.

On the flip side I believe the road dog -1.5 has the best value. If I like the road dog I'm usually taking them -1.5. Or at least adding a little on the -1.5 or -2.5. The increased value will more than make up for the one run loses. Though if the game is smelling like an under I will opt to just stick with the ML unless I feel like I can get a shutout to back me up.

I use similar reasoning in regard to playing unders. If I lean torward the road team I usually stay away unless I feel like the roadies have a good enough chance to shut the homeboys out. I'd rather not worry about the bottom of the ninth when I'm holding an under ticket.

 

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#367
Posted: 4/7/2013 3:40:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by natalieportman9:

Stupid bets by me again. I always have problems when "aces" on the mound. I need to stop betting against the grain just because a team's #1 takes the mound. Lesson learned.
There are no stupid bets and no genius bets. Only importance is the process in a long run. One with ability to see the mistakes and mark them  - will always get on top in a long run. Good job
quote
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#368
Posted: 4/7/2013 3:46:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SickCallREf:

For me it's all about the pitching matchups. If I feel that I have a big enough advantage with the home starter or the bullpen I will risk it. Obviously there is more value in taking a road team -1.5 for you are guaranteed 27 outs as long as the game goes nine. And you don't have to worry about going into the ninth up by one run in need of a miracle. In any event that I like a low scoring game(7 runs or less) I must have supreme confidence in the home staff.

I almost got greedy yesterday with the Whitesox. Something like +410 on the -2.5....-1.5 +270. I liked the game under the total so I laid off the RL. Even with good enough batter history vs Hernandez, I just didn't feel there was a chance of Seattle getting shutout even though historically Felixs' run support is miserable on average.

On the flip side I believe the road dog -1.5 has the best value. If I like the road dog I'm usually taking them -1.5. Or at least adding a little on the -1.5 or -2.5. The increased value will more than make up for the one run loses. Though if the game is smelling like an under I will opt to just stick with the ML unless I feel like I can get a shutout to back me up.

I use similar reasoning in regard to playing unders. If I lean torward the road team I usually stay away unless I feel like the roadies have a good enough chance to shut the homeboys out. I'd rather not worry about the bottom of the ninth when I'm holding an under ticket.

 

There's not any single strategy viable for a long run as the season is long and dynamic, and we're dealing with people with ups and downs. I suggest to approach every single game with it's own trends and angles and not to generalize all the games or most of them under the same roof. There are viable points you and NP are drawing attention to - but IMO and from an experience - every strategy or eurica will be soon overthrown by new ones and so on. So - it's very important to deal with every game as it's own entity with angles and previous meeting between the teams, series, pitchers matchups and "the code" of what is obviously expected but is not translated into odds and the line.
quote
SickCallREf
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#369
Posted: 4/7/2013 4:33:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

There's not any single strategy viable for a long run as the season is long and dynamic, and we're dealing with people with ups and downs. I suggest to approach every single game with it's own trends and angles and not to generalize all the games or most of them under the same roof. There are viable points you and NP are drawing attention to - but IMO and from an experience - every strategy or eurica will be soon overthrown by new ones and so on. So - it's very important to deal with every game as it's own entity with angles and previous meeting between the teams, series, pitchers matchups and "the code" of what is obviously expected but is not translated into odds and the line.

I agree...each game is its own. I'm just looking for an advantage somewhere. I don't bet solely on any particular trend or percieved value. But I keep it in mind.

quote
SimonDog
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#370
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:23:21 PM
My thoughts picks and reasons for selecting is part art and part research
What I can tell you is that I was a sportscaster on a regional level for 17 years and have seen trends that may only make sense to me

I don't usually explain things well but I will consider it
I so better not e planning and letting the picks speak for themselves
-with respect
Simon Dog
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#371
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:38:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SimonDog:

My thoughts picks and reasons for selecting is part art and part research
What I can tell you is that I was a sportscaster on a regional level for 17 years and have seen trends that may only make sense to me

I don't usually explain things well but I will consider it
I so better not e planning and letting the picks speak for themselves
-with respect
Simon Dog
quote
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#372
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:38:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SickCallREf:

I agree...each game is its own. I'm just looking for an advantage somewhere. I don't bet solely on any particular trend or percieved value. But I keep it in mind.

quote
natalieportman9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#373
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:39:27 PM
Thanks for the input fellas. I really appreciate it. I am a work in progress, and it's all progress!
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#374
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:44:44 PM
SimonDog  16-1-1  +1677$

WAS Nationals ML -115

KC Royals       ML  +108

NY Mets         ML   -145

Musicmatt1  13-4  +893$

 

PHI Phillies  ML  -135

 

BOS Red Sox  ML  +107

 

Under 7  SF Giants - STL Cardinals  -125


SickCallREf  9-4  +716

Under 6.5 DET Tigers - NY Yankees +135

Under 6.5 MIL Brewers - ARZ D-Backs +165

STL Cardinals +116

Jmill33  5-1 +370$

BAL Orioles -170

COL Rockies -150

BOS Red Sox +115

CP74    4-1   +$315

Under 8 TOR Blue Jays-BOS Red Sox -110

WAS Nationals -115

BAL Orioles -1.5 +110

greengiants 9-7 +293$


SEA Mariners ML +146

Under 7.5 NY Mets - MIA Marlins -101

MIL Brewers ML +101

KCsFinest829 9-8 +133


CHI Cubs ML +125

Over 8 BOS Red Sox - TOR Blue Jays +100

NY Yankees ML +176

(leave those decisions to me. Don't make counting decisions - only correct if needed. So, instead of 115 you won 100. No big deal)

KaiserWilhelm   2-1 +75 $

DET Tigers -1.5 +115

Under 7 CIN Reds - WAS Nationals -137

washhead 3-2 +50$

Under 5.0 1st 5 Inn BAL Orioles - MIN Twins -110
quote
SportsMavin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#375
Posted: 4/7/2013 5:51:33 PM
7/2

natalieportman9 8-9  +20$

TOR Blue Jays -1.5 +155

LA Dodgers -1.5 +125

DET Tigers -1.5 +105

AshyLarryMP 9-8 -$18:

Under 7.5 HOU Astros - OAK Athletics +100

Under 7 SF Giants - STL Cardinals -125

COL Rockies -1.5 +130

BigUnit  0-0   0$

LA Angels ML +125

CIN Reds ML +100

CHI Cubs ML +128

jackson0780 0-0 $

CIN Reds -110

PHI Phillies -130

SF Giants -126

(make sure it'\s formatted next time)
quote
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