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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Mavin's MLB Contest
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#1
Posted: 3/31/2013 11:01:36 PM
Ok, so here we are as promised - same rules for contest as in NBA thread apply. 3 picks and formatted picks. GL
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#2
Posted: 3/31/2013 11:08:50 PM
can you link the rules from nba? thx
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#3
Posted: 3/31/2013 11:13:52 PM
awesome job mavin, some of the best threads on covers by far! keep up the work!




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#4
Posted: 3/31/2013 11:47:56 PM
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#5
Posted: 4/1/2013 12:02:25 AM
Ok. Since MLB is not NBA and the lines format as well as the odds are different, each pick will have to be accompanied by the odds at the moment of the picks. There will be 3 picks welcomed per person and the presenting format will include name followed by record and the teams will be abbreviated as in books - for example: NY Yankees, BOS Red Sox, LA Angels, DET Tigers, WASH Nationals etc. When posting totals - Under 7.5  NY Yankees - BOS Red Sox. while the home team is first. If there are two games in that particular day - G1 and G2 will be added after a pick. For example NY Yankees - TEX Rangers G2, or NY Yankees ML G1, or TEX Rangers -1.5 G2. 
Record of a person will include his W/L as well as his money record aka SportsMavin 5-3   +125
Each pick will be reasoned by along write up or few brief words - does not matter - as long as a person will be able to go back to his reasoning after a game and make appropriate notes for himself to see what was right and what went wrong and what shouild be considered for the next time he will be in a similar situation and if the terms from the notes will be appropriate.
At the beginning I'll be correcting and explaining as our main goal is to grow as handicappers and not to prove to each other who is better. This is ego less contest but I will be posting after each day the records of the leaders as in NBA contest. Those who want to familiarize themselves are welcome to visit the NBA thread.
I am sure I will have much more to add and explain as the counting in MLB goes but as we have to start somewhere - today is as good as any other day - so GL
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#6
Posted: 4/1/2013 12:14:44 AM
Basic rules and examples of the picks:

SportsMavin  0-0  0$

COL Rockies ML  +134

(Reasoning)

Over 7.5 NY Mets - SD Padres +105

(Reasoning)

WAS Nationals -1.5  -125

(Reasoning)

also the types of 

WAS Nationals TT Over 4

(Reasoning)

Or a bet on first 5 innings or first 4.5 innings.

(Reasoning)

*please note as those are not actual picks but examples, neither the reasoning is real

**Pregame discussions and the leans as well as important data and insight exchange between the posters will play a dramatic role in our success and try to remember at all times that we're not really competing against each other but bettering ourselves as a team counting on each and every poster to carry the ball on a given day or different poster carrying a ball on different day. We're going to do it as a team


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#7
Posted: 4/1/2013 12:18:17 AM
MM, Toby, Knight 
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greengiants
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#8
Posted: 4/1/2013 12:34:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Basic rules and examples of the picks:

SportsMavin  0-0  0$

COL Rockies ML  +134

(Reasoning)
 
 

Over 7.5 NY Mets - SD Padres +105

(Reasoning)

WAS Nationals -1.5  -125

(Reasoning)

also the types of 

WAS Nationals TT Over 4

(Reasoning)

Or a bet on first 5 innings or first 4.5 innings.

(Reasoning)

*please note as those are not actual picks but examples, neither the reasoning is real

**Pregame discussions and the leans as well as important data and insight exchange between the posters will play a dramatic role in our success and try to remember at all times that we're not really competing against each other but bettering ourselves as a team counting on each and every poster to carry the ball on a given day or different poster carrying a ball on different day. We're going to do it as a team


quote
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#9
Posted: 4/1/2013 1:08:09 AM
Teemosanchez season 0-0:

Top 3 picks

 PICKS:

KAS Royals ML +125

White Sox trend to struggle against the Royals and cant wait to see how Shields will look.

WAS Nationals ML-265

dont have to explain this one. Miami will be one of the worst teams in the league after losing two quailty arms and a bright spot in their lineup.

DET Tigers RL-125

Worley is a 3rd starter at best. No need to really go deep into this analysis. TIGERS ROLL...Maybe more to come. BOL everyone

Season:- 0-0New year and cant wait for some baseball tomorrow. Got some picks below for tomorrow with maybe more games to add to my card. PICKS:Kansas City ML +125- White Sox trend to struggle against the Royals and cant wait to see how Shields will look. Look for a low scoring game as I would lean under in the first 5 innings.Nationals ML-265- dont have to explain this one. Miami will be one of the worst teams in the league after losing two quailty arms and a bright spot in their infield. NATS ALL DAY.San Diego ML+127- Really liked this team toward the end of last season. Think they have the potiential to be a sleeper this year bit they are in a tough division..like them in this matchup as I feel the Mets will not contend for anything this year.Tigers RL-Worley is a 3rd starter at best. No need to really go deep into this analysis. TIGERS ROLL...Maybe more to come. BOL everyone

Season:- 0-0New year and cant wait for some baseball tomorrow. Got some picks below for tomorrow with maybe more games to add to my card. PICKS:Kansas City ML +125- White Sox trend to struggle against the Royals and cant wait to see how Shields will look. Look for a low scoring game as I would lean under in the first 5 innings.Nationals ML-265- dont have to explain this one. Miami will be one of the worst teams in the league after losing two quailty arms and a bright spot in their infield. NATS ALL DAY.San Diego ML+127- Really liked this team toward the end of last season. Think they have the potiential to be a sleeper this year bit they are in a tough division..like them in this matchup as I feel the Mets will not contend for anything this year.Tigers RL-Worley is a 3rd starter at best. No need to really go deep into this analysis. TIGERS ROLL...Maybe more to come. BOL everyone

Season:- 0-0New year and cant wait for some baseball tomorrow. Got some picks below for tomorrow with maybe more games to add to my card. PICKS:Kansas City ML +125- White Sox trend to struggle against the Royals and cant wait to see how Shields will look. Look for a low scoring game as I would lean under in the first 5 innings.Nationals ML-265- dont have to explain this one. Miami will be one of the worst teams in the league after losing two quailty arms and a bright spot in their infield. NATS ALL DAY.San Diego ML+127- Really liked this team toward the end of last season. Think they have the potiential to be a sleeper this year bit they are in a tough division..like them in this matchup as I feel the Mets will not contend for anything this year.Tigers RL-Worley is a 3rd starter at best. No need to really go deep into this analysis. TIGERS ROLL.

BOL everyone

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#10
Posted: 4/1/2013 1:10:27 AM

Sickcallref 0-0  $0

Under 6.5 OAK - SEA -115

King Felix+ Pitchers park=under

Under 6 LAD - SF +105

Ace vs Ace Don't see either pitcher giving up much of anything in this one. The first month of the season is great for unders as the bats still need time to catch up.

WAS -1.5  -125

Strasburg against one of the weaker lineups in baseball. -2.5 will most likely be a play as well.

Your time and effort is appreciated Mavin...Happy baseballing everyone!!!

 

 

 

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#11
Posted: 4/1/2013 1:59:22 AM
Thanks for the effort Mavin 

This will be bigger than the NBA thread.
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#12
Posted: 4/1/2013 2:25:46 AM

WhoaMavin's no Joke!

Royals+125, Pirates-124, Tigers -192

The cagey vet Miquel Tejada with the late game heroics for the Royal victory.

AJ Burnett and Verlander will be very hard to hit in cold weather. Have alotta bench Cubbies and Twins.

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#13
Posted: 4/1/2013 2:40:51 AM
I cant fuking format this $hit like you want...every time i post it says i have to many characters....
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#14
Posted: 4/1/2013 2:44:55 AM
 Nieldellacrose 0-0
 3 top plays
 COL Rockies + 135
 Under 6.5 SEA Mariners OAK A's
 Under 7.5 CHI Cubs PITT Pirates..
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#15
Posted: 4/1/2013 3:21:19 AM
marlins plus 1.5 vs. nats- nolasco doesnt want to get off to slow start like last year....

twins plus 1.5 vs. tigers- go against the pitcher who always signs a big contract on opening day..

braves over the phillies- righties vs. lefties on opening day are a staggering 59.7 percent.....
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#16
Posted: 4/1/2013 3:50:43 AM
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#17
Posted: 4/1/2013 4:45:24 AM
np9 0-0 0 $

BOS Red Sox ML +105
Good lefties on the mound, but I'll take the bosox lineup over yankees in this one.
SD Padres ML +130
Third consecutive opening day start for Volquez. He has nasty stuff. Niese could have some gitters.
KC Royals ML +125
Like shields over sale in this spot. Kansas city bats expecting to be biting at the bit with the bolstered rotation.
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ashylarrymp
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#18
Posted: 4/1/2013 7:14:45 AM
for contest purposes... are we allowed to put games like Nats ML -265? feel it'd be too easy if we do... -130 an below like NBA? or is baseball different? thanks mavin!
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#19
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:02:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

for contest purposes... are we allowed to put games like Nats ML -265? feel it'd be too easy if we do... -130 an below like NBA? or is baseball different? thanks mavin!
There are two opposing opinions on that matter buddy. One says - do it if you'd do it or are you doing it in fact. If you'd be ready to pay that kind of a juice on a single game - go ahead and do it. The other opinion says that sooner or later you'll learn paying so much juice does not pay in a long run (I'd even say - it doesn't pay in a short run because "sure games" like that are usually used by a public for parlay completions and since Vegas is not there teaming up with social security services - usually those parlays fall on one of the "sure games").
So, today, on an opening day I will allow any kinds of single bets only to reach a mutual conclusion with the contestants if that approach is financially viable. After all that is what this thread was created for - to examine the handicapping values through real time experience and bettering our handicapping habits and being a less of a gambler and more of a handicapper. Since the Money Management is a vital part of successful endeavor  - your question is very important and each and every contestant must give it a thought. We all know from the example of Phixer how important is Money Management
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#20
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:03:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

for contest purposes... are we allowed to put games like Nats ML -265? feel it'd be too easy if we do... -130 an below like NBA? or is baseball different? thanks mavin!


Good point ashy Larry... I think if it's over -200 I think that two should be counted for one.. I try not to go higher than -170
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#21
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:04:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nieldellacroce:

I cant fuking format this $hit like you want...every time i post it says i have to many characters....
That usually happens when you copy paste from place top another and while copying - grabbing the whole line of the last line text. Try to minimize blank areas and f the problem persists - post game by game and not altogether
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#22
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:15:21 AM
First season that I'll be betting baseball, let's see how this goes...

Pittsburgh -120
-This is the year Pittsburgh finally has a winning season and it starts today.

NYM -127
-My football theory, west coast team playing early east coast game.

Miami v. Washington - Over 7 
-Washington might do this themselves

WTD...WIN THE DAY
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#23
Posted: 4/1/2013 9:50:54 AM
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Under 8 NY Yankees-BOS Red Sox -109

Two more than solid pitchers on the mound, while both teams struggled during spring training and have to deal with injuries. Neither team's batting lineup really impresses me and I believe we will see a low-scoring game.
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#24
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:03:07 AM

Musicmatt1  0-0  0$

 

WAS Nationals  -1.5  -125

 

PIT Pirates ML  -128

 

DET Tigers  -1.5  -125

 

Strasburg has been waiting since last post season for this start.  This is not pressure, it is the itch.

 

Pirates played well at home last year.  Think Samardzija is over his head as a Major League starter.

 

Worley should not be an opening day starter.  Verlander is going to not create any questions as to why the Tigers signed him to that big contract.


Looking forward to a great season gents!


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#25
Posted: 4/1/2013 10:13:46 AM
washhead  0-0  $0

UNDER 4.0 (5 innings) MIN Twins - DET Tigers  -125

33 degrees at game time, 15 mph wind from the north, Verlander on the mound and an impotent Twins lineup.  All the makings of a low scoring game. 

Bats might heat up as the game wears on and the starters get pulled, which is why I'm taking the 5-inning line instead of the whole game.  I have a little concern Worley could get tagged early, but overall this seems like a safe play. 
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