The American League West
Why not save the best for last. Easily MLB’s best division, even with the addition of the Houston Astros.
5. Houston Astros 59 Wins
It is not easy to pick any team under such a low number, and I probably wouldn’t in any other division, but this one is so tough someone has to lose an extraordinary number of games. Don’t feel too sympathetic toward the Astros though, as their rebuilding program is headed in the right direction and they do have a few intangibles on their side. The offensive-defensive rebuild is taking shape and what really needs a booster shot is the pitching, but that can take longer to develop and it just isn’t there this year. As far as favoring intangibles go remember these things. Both the Astros and their park are a relatively unknown commodity to AL West teams and they did not play their spring ball in Arizona, the only one of the five that did not, so there is definitely an unfamiliarity with them that the other four do not share among themselves. They are also the team that will catch everyone else coming off much tougher and more important series versus each other, which could create some nice letdown situations.
4. Oakland Athletics 86 Wins
Extraordinary performance last year but it hinged on some very small differences and hard to repeat performances. The pitching staff and bullpen performed above the level their skill sets would indicate, to a man. Crisp, Cespedes and Reddick were outstanding on both offense and defense, and even the much maligned Brandon Inge was able to contribute. I think it was great, loved every minute of it, but I also don’t think it happens again.
3. Texas Rangers 88 Wins
I won’t make any apologies for or disparaging remarks about a team I see winning 88 games in a tough division, but time has passed the Rangers by and I don’t see them as a top contender at this time. They hit, and their stats are always enhanced by the park they call home, but overall you have to be able to win on the road too, and that is not as easy with the staff they have assembled. Too many question marks surrounding the staff to make me get excited about their prospects.
2. Seattle Mariners 90 Wins
I can hardly wait to hear about how moving the fences in at home made a really legitimate offensive team out of the Mariners. First, I would remind everyone that the fences were moved in for the opposition too, so it is a neutral factor other than raising the probable runs per game at Safeco Park. Secondly, so sorry so many folks read overall stats and draw their conclusions from those, when the Mariners played 81 games there and were more affected than any other team by the low scoring nature of the park itself. Comparing road stats only, which still isn’t entirely fair, at least mitigates many of the factors you see when combined stats are used. The fact of the matter is that the Mariners were a very good hitting team last year and are improved again. Just review how many guys in how many games were all p.o. about the Mariners road upsets last year. Games they were supposed to get blown out because they “couldn’t hit” with the home team. Numbers will tell you most of what you need to know, but the numbers have to be used correctly or you are looking at “garbage in, garbage out.” So, teams the Mariners beat at home 1-0 or 2-1 last year they will now beat 3-2 or 4-3, same difference, but overall this team is much better and ready to contend.
1. Anaheim Angels 92 Wins
Why is Arty ashamed they are in Anaheim? Must be one of those “Los Angeles is the center of the universe” complexes, or maybe a “Valley Girl” complex, but at least they are young and either grow out of it or move to Chatsworth and make porn movies. Frankly, they don’t even play in Los Angeles County, much less the City of Los Angeles. Whatever. Anyway, this year I think it all comes together for the Angels and the addition of Josh Hamilton is just the ticket. The final piece to the puzzle. One thing you may not appreciate is how much easier his transition is this year than Albert Pujols was last year. West Coast parks are lefty oriented, both hitters and pitchers, and in addition to that the fences are moved in at Seattle. I think hitting behind Pujols and in front of Trumbo he will have a monster year and may be a good bet in the most home runs prop bet category. I don’t see Mike Trout suffering any form of sophomore setback as happens to many guys when they have been around “The Show” for a full year and pitchers have a solid book on them. How good was he last year? Well, in my humble opinion, if there were only one ROY award for both leagues he would have beaten Bryce Harper 58-2 with only the Nationals writers voting for Harper. This team has all the weapons and the Mariners will make it interesting, but their success will snowball and carry them, should I say it? “All The Way”
best for 2013
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