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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB 2013 Spring Training Thread
DAVIDN send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 3/3/2013 8:52:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Yes, but remember that is flat, do not add the juice on favorites if you want your units to match mine.
Okay bro, thank you.
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#52
Posted: 3/3/2013 8:53:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JasonBravo:

Well done Key! i was on Oakland too. Past two days the plus money teams haven't been hitting as much as earlier on in ST. what do you rekon, just swallow the juice (no pun intended) ? Had my first losing day today 

Swallowing the juice is not my style this early, although I may soon. Early on there is still so much unknown why do it? Run production is not a favorite or dog thing at all and can't be used automatically that way. Whether it looks like it or not I have been playing dogs with an offensive advantage, I just won't reveal how I determine that, but some mighty highly thought of offenses are not producing any better. Who needs negative odds in that case? Today Seattle and Oakland were both offensive choices at positive odds. 

To answer your other question I support probability, not any team. I go watch the D-backs occasionally because they are local, but that does not make me a fan. I can go to a D-backs game with money on either side and enjoy the game if my money wins, whether or not the D-backs do.   

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#53
Posted: 3/3/2013 9:11:24 PM
I see that 1 or 2 plays a day , maybe three. Is that the normal amount of games a day? If so, I like it...
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#54
Posted: 3/3/2013 9:19:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DAVIDN:

I see that 1 or 2 plays a day , maybe three. Is that the normal amount of games a day? If so, I like it...
It will vary quite a bit. Whether or not a side or total is playable has nothing to do with a limited or maximum per day. We are not even into totals yet and regular season games are in some ways easier than these, Take it slow and easy. Even if you don't get a feel for what I do in April there will still be 5 months of daily action available. 2,430 games a year, that's 10 NFL seasons. Gotta love MLB.
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#55
Posted: 3/3/2013 9:23:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Swallowing the juice is not my style this early, although I may soon. Early on there is still so much unknown why do it? Run production is not a favorite or dog thing at all and can't be used automatically that way. Whether it looks like it or not I have been playing dogs with an offensive advantage, I just won't reveal how I determine that, but some mighty highly thought of offenses are not producing any better. Who needs negative odds in that case? Today Seattle and Oakland were both offensive choices at positive odds. 

To answer your other question I support probability, not any team. I go watch the D-backs occasionally because they are local, but that does not make me a fan. I can go to a D-backs game with money on either side and enjoy the game if my money wins, whether or not the D-backs do.   


You played it right today, Seattle has been on fire and the Rockies have been playing awful so far. Thats the problem i have, i cant identify just a couple of good plays at plus money. I really try to avoid juice in baseball, any team can win on any given night, i'd never lay more that -140. So what is your capping style, do you dive a lot into stats or just use the probabaility/chase angle? i admire your style whichever it is, i think baseball is one of those sports like NHL where you can kind of have that sixth sense on picking winners if you monitor it everyday. D-backs .. i made handsome money on them last year. But i agree i'm a Wsox fan, i have no problem betting against them though. I've only been to a handful of games due to living in Britain. What would you say is the best ballpark ?, i'll be stateside during the summer so i'd like to see some live action.
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#56
Posted: 3/3/2013 9:34:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

It will vary quite a bit. Whether or not a side or total is playable has nothing to do with a limited or maximum per day. We are not even into totals yet and regular season games are in some ways easier than these, Take it slow and easy. Even if you don't get a feel for what I do in April there will still be 5 months of daily action available. 2,430 games a year, that's 10 NFL seasons. Gotta love MLB.
Sounds good, your the boss. Thanks again. Same place tomorrow.
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#57
Posted: 3/3/2013 9:53:25 PM

Jason - Really don't have a favorite park but Wrigley and Fenway are dumps. Overage and short on amenities. As for not laying over -140, I can see the point, but there are teams that justify higher odds from time to time. I try not to box myself in with rules like that. I use raw stats in my handicapping but they are cumulative, time expiring, and graded for current effect, a pretty confusing formula but it works for me. Fortunately for me I have it all plugged into Excel so I just have to enter last stats, plug in the new numbers and the formula knocks out what the odds should be, probability, not personal emotion or team or hero worship. I have at least 2 to 3 hours a day in accumulating and grading stats during the regular season. Believe me, when the All Star break gets here I am glad to see it, lol.

I am tired now guys, have to sign off and read a little before bed time, so I will say good night and see you tomorrow.

 

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#58
Posted: 3/4/2013 12:44:10 PM
Afternoon Key, i'll be in the Florida area and Bay Area, Tropicana Field looks in a terrible state so i guess AT&T it is .. may go to a few, i always thought highly of Wrigley and Fenway. Todays card looks a little tough. 

Twins have been on a scoring draught past 2 days, however the Juice is high with Detroit, and they haven't really done much to justify it so far 

I also like Tampa Bay and Mets . Looking forward to your plays .

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#59
Posted: 3/4/2013 12:55:14 PM
I have 3 but all in the Cactus League - later. They will be up soon. AT&T you will love.
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#60
Posted: 3/4/2013 1:00:36 PM

All plays 100 flat potential profit on favorites in (parenthesis)

10-9-4, +158 ST to date – ROI = +8.3%

Monday 3-4

LA Angels +104

Padres +119

Giants +103

BOL                                       

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#61
Posted: 3/4/2013 1:04:52 PM
bol today!
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#62
Posted: 3/4/2013 1:14:50 PM
BOL 
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#63
Posted: 3/4/2013 1:16:34 PM
GL this afternoon key
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#64
Posted: 3/4/2013 1:16:40 PM
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#65
Posted: 3/4/2013 2:16:35 PM
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#66
Posted: 3/4/2013 6:07:22 PM
what a day key
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#67
Posted: 3/4/2013 8:44:06 PM
How many years have you been sports Key? And a cheeky question, do you mind me asking how old you are? 
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#68
Posted: 3/4/2013 8:44:53 PM
*capping Sports.
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#69
Posted: 3/5/2013 11:32:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alekomtz:

what a day key
sucked, eom
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#70
Posted: 3/5/2013 11:35:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JasonBravo:

How many years have you been sports Key? And a cheeky question, do you mind me asking how old you are? 
40  and 67
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#71
Posted: 3/5/2013 11:45:57 AM
lol at above smileys..  Key is one of the best cappers here though... very smart and structured bettor.  Don't let his age fool you, he hasn't gotten senile yet.  JK Key
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#72
Posted: 3/5/2013 12:54:34 PM

All plays 100 flat potential profit on favorites in (parenthesis)

10-12-4, -142 ST to date – ROI = -6.5%

Tuesday 3-5

Cubs +112

BOL                                       

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#73
Posted: 3/5/2013 1:36:58 PM
May I ask why you like the Cubs today? Batting line up is pretty bad today.
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KeyElement
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#74
Posted: 3/5/2013 2:08:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettinbig5:

lol at above smileys..  Key is one of the best cappers here though... very smart and structured bettor.  Don't let his age fool you, he hasn't gotten senile yet.  JK Key
Obviously you have not spoken to my wife lately, lol.
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#75
Posted: 3/5/2013 2:19:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by swngus44:

May I ask why you like the Cubs today? Batting line up is pretty bad today.
I don't think the Francis-Rockies combination is worth -126 versus anyone. Sure, the Cubs suck, but the Rockies may be even worse and I don't see them at better than a 55.75% chance of winning. Cubs at 47.2% is much easier to swallow. The lineup does not look like much, but this time of year everyone is fighting for a spot on the roster or higher level minor league assignment, so Francis is facing guys that want to play their best.
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