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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Plan on Betting Futures on these Squads$$ what ya think ??
DoubleUp4Life send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 2/20/2013 11:03:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:



Rockies are also going non-traditional with their starting pitching.  Only 75 pitches then the bullpen comes in. 

AL is not really my thing, but the White Sox are probably the second best team in the Central.

I keep reading that the Rockies are switching back to 5 starters this season ... that 75 pitch thing was weird 

hmmmm Am i stupid for thinking of backing the Royals again ?? Hoping for a much lower season win total this time around 
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#27
Posted: 2/21/2013 8:36:42 AM
East
Rays 94    86  O/U-110
Jays 91      89  O+100  U-120
Yankees 88  88  O-115   U-105
O's 84           78.5   O-105  U-115 
Red Sox 81    83   O-105

Central 
Tigers  95      92.5  O-115
Royals 83      77.5   O-115
Indians  80     77.5   O-110
White Sox 76    81   O-105
Twins  71        67.5  O-120

West
Angels 95       91.5   O-120
Rangers 84     86.5  O-115
M's 82            77.5   O-120
A's 81             84.5   O-105
Astros  62       59.5    O+100


NL 
East 
Braves 95      87.5   O-115
Nats   89        92  O+100
Phillies 87      84   O-105
Mets   67         75   O+100
Marlins 60        63.5  O+100

Central 
Reds 98           91  O+100
Cardinals 89      86.5 O+100
Pirates 82         77   O-110
Brewers 73       81   O-105
Cubs 62            72.5    O-125   U+105

West 
Diamondbacks 91   82.5 O+105
Dodgers 90          91.5  O-105
Giants 89             88  O-105
Rockies 72           70.5   O-120
Padres 66           74.5   O-115
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#28
Posted: 2/21/2013 9:15:43 AM
Royals Over 77.5 -115
Rockies Under 70.5 Even? (Let this line climb, probably 71.5 or 72)
jmho
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#29
Posted: 2/21/2013 9:36:22 AM
Adding some Season Win Total Investments 

Cincinnati Reds Over 91 +100 
$450 to win $450
Have the Reds winning it all this season. The lack of Juice has me going Larger on this Wager. Predicting 95-107 Wins 

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 82.5 +105
$286 to win $300.30
Kirk Gibson has done an amazing job so far here. The Starting Pitching looks good and has nice depth. 3 Starters should throw for 200+ Innings .. Love setup man David Hernandez who only allowed a .088 BA. The Bullpen added 2 nice lefties..heath Bell is a Wild card at this point . The Infield is top 5 overall IMNHO 

Chicago Cubs Under 72.5 +105
$200 to win $210
How are these guys gonna be 13+ games better ? Where is the run production gonna come from ??  The Starting Pitching and Bullpen were a joke last season .   

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#30
Posted: 2/21/2013 11:36:48 AM
Royals Over 77.5 -115
$345 to win $300
KC has been starving for starting pitching forever . The addition of James Shields,Wade Davis and Ervin Santana  is just what the Dr. Ordered.** Predicting Hosmer and Moustakas will have big bounce back seasons..
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#31
Posted: 2/21/2013 11:53:15 AM
3 Questions for DoubleUp (Tried quoting but says I have exceeded length).. interested to hear your thoughts:

1. What's the thought process on Arizona winning The NL West? The Dodgers are built to win on paper and have Ryu + Greinke as additions. For those unfamiliar with Ryu, he's filth. Then there is San Francisco who's rotation can go head to head with anyone. If Lincecum rebounds from last year and Zito can provide some sort of steadiness, I just don't see how this division is anything but a 2 team race. I will say that Arizona is however a good team and at times looked like they could push for a wild card spot last year but I just don't see it happening this year.

2. Pittsburgh 82 wins.. What's your angle? No Houston to use as a punching bag, Cubs much improved, Milwaukee coming off 83 wins, and The Pirates 2nd half was awful.

3. AL East all .500... I think someone will have to finish below though I agree the division will be much closer then in past years.

Again, really curious to hear your thoughts. Anyone?
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#32
Posted: 2/21/2013 1:07:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BennyGee:

3 Questions for DoubleUp (Tried quoting but says I have exceeded length).. interested to hear your thoughts:

1. What's the thought process on Arizona winning The NL West? The Dodgers are built to win on paper and have Ryu + Greinke as additions. For those unfamiliar with Ryu, he's filth. Then there is San Francisco who's rotation can go head to head with anyone. If Lincecum rebounds from last year and Zito can provide some sort of steadiness, I just don't see how this division is anything but a 2 team race. I will say that Arizona is however a good team and at times looked like they could push for a wild card spot last year but I just don't see it happening this year.

Not Sure the D Backs win the West .. Right now their Season Wins Over is the only Investment I would make on them ..

The +655 is NOT enough to win the Division .. +850 sounds better and if I can get that I would throw $125 on it ... 

Down the Road I would Hedge with either the Giants,Dodgers or both .... Sure LA looks great on paper and they should be the Fav right there with the Giants ...  Maybe there are too many stars in the Club houses ??? Maybe injuries Hit LA and or SF... 

2. Pittsburgh 82 wins.. What's your angle? No Houston to use as a punching bag, Cubs much improved, Milwaukee coming off 83 wins, and The Pirates 2nd half was awful.

I would not put any money on the Pirates this season either way ... The total odds makers released looks very sharp ... Pirates have a HUGE variable in total Wins by my numbers anywhere from 68-88 IMNHO
...

The Brewers  could be better , and I will raise my season win prediction above ... I was a Little Low to start .

but the Cards could be worse ...Just not sure what to do with them 

 The Cubs are gonna be dreadful 

3. AL East all .500... I think someone will have to finish below though I agree the division will be much closer then in past years.

The AL East is wide open ... MY Local gets loads of Yankees Homer action and i should get some Good Value on the Rays and Maybe the Jays ....   NO Out come would shock me this season .....

Right now i have the Rays on Top but I do NOT see any current value with the Oddsmakers being sharp 

Again, really curious to hear your thoughts. Anyone?

nice to talk some Ball ....

Best of Luck brother ... 

What teams look like them will be improved to you ??? what season wins do u Like 
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#33
Posted: 2/21/2013 1:28:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Royals Over 77.5 -115

Rockies Under 70.5 Even? (Let this line climb, probably 71.5 or 72)
jmho

On the Royals Over with you ..  they let me down last season , but I love the added Pitching ... Not sure I would bet them to win the Division unless I could get 10-1 or better ,,

Rockies are gonna be Horrible ... Hoping like u this number rises to 72.5-74.5.... 


Thanks for dropping by Brother



U like the Reds this season ???
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#34
Posted: 2/21/2013 2:23:07 PM
DU4L - I like the Reds in their division, but not at 95-107 wins. 107 = 66%, and with Houston not only out of the division but out of the league that is really stretching it in my opinion. Fewer divisional games means more legitimate schedule. Good luck with that one. I also have little respect for Dusty Baker, but that is beside the point.
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#35
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:16:00 AM
5 Dimes vs my Local 

East
Rays       86  O/U-110                  86.5  -110
Jays        89  O+100  U-120       87.5   -110
Yankees   88  O-115   U-105      94.5   O-120
O's          78.5   O-105  U-115     77.5   O+100
Red Sox     83   O-105                 83.5    -110

Central 
Tigers          92.5  O-115           93   -110
Royals         77.5   O-115          78   -110
Indians        77.5   O-110          78   -110
White Sox     81   O-105          80.5  -110
Twins           67.5  O-120          68.5   -110

West
Angels          91.5   O-120      92.5  -110        
Rangers        86.5  O-115     87  -110
M's               77.5   O-120      78.5   -110
A's               84.5   O-105       85.5  -110
Astros           59.5    O+100    58.5   -110

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#36
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:19:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

5 Dimes vs my Local 

East
Rays       86  O/U-110                  86.5  -110
Jays        89  O+100  U-120       87.5   -110
Yankees   88  O-115   U-105      94.5   O-120
O's          78.5   O-105  U-115     77.5   O+100
Red Sox     83   O-105                 83.5    -110

Central 
Tigers          92.5  O-115           93   -110
Royals         77.5   O-115          78   -110
Indians        77.5   O-110          78   -110
White Sox     81   O-105          80.5  -110
Twins           67.5  O-120          68.5   -110

West
Angels          91.5   O-120      92.5  -110        
Rangers        86.5  O-115     87  -110
M's               77.5   O-120      78.5   -110
A's               84.5   O-105       85.5  -110
Astros           59.5    O+100    58.5   -110



Your local is 6.5 games off of Yankees compared to 5dimes?
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#37
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:19:47 AM
NL 
East 
Braves         87.5   O-115     87 -110
Nats             92  O+100        91.5  -110
Phillies         84   O-105       84.5  -110
Mets            75   O+100        78.5  -110
Marlins          63.5  O+100     62.5   -110

Central 
Reds               91  O+100         90.5 -110
Cardinals       86.5 O+100       87.5  -110
Pirates           77   O-110          79.5   -110
Brewers         81   O-105            80.5   -110
Cubs              72.5    O-125   U+105   73.5   -110   

West 
Diamondbacks    82.5 O+105      81.5  -110
Dodgers          91.5  O-105          92.5   -110
Giants               88  O-105              89.5  -110
Rockies             70.5   O-120         72.5   -110
Padres              74.5   O-115         73.5  -110
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#38
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:22:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

NL 
East 
Braves         87.5   O-115     87 -110
Nats             92  O+100        91.5  -110
Phillies         84   O-105       84.5  -110
Mets            75   O+100        78.5  -110
Marlins          63.5  O+100     62.5   -110

Central 
Reds               91  O+100         90.5 -110
Cardinals       86.5 O+100       87.5  -110
Pirates           77   O-110          79.5   -110
Brewers         81   O-105            80.5   -110
Cubs              72.5    O-125   U+105   73.5   -110   

West 
Diamondbacks    82.5 O+105      81.5  -110
Dodgers          91.5  O-105          92.5   -110
Giants               88  O-105              89.5  -110
Rockies             70.5   O-120         72.5   -110
Padres              74.5   O-115         73.5  -110


High on the Mets as well. Your local must think a lot of Yankees and Mets fans will support their team on the over...hence why it is high?
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#39
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:40:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:



High on the Mets as well. Your local must think a lot of Yankees and Mets fans will support their team on the over...hence why it is high?

Yeah he gets loads of Down state action ...Loads of NYC Homers 

Most of his clients are older ...Almost None of them bet on the Net 



as usual though I will NOT count his Yankees/Mets/Jets/Giants odds here on Covers ... Although I will be both the Unders 
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#40
Posted: 2/22/2013 10:32:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


Yeah he gets loads of Down state action ...Loads of NYC Homers 

Most of his clients are older ...Almost None of them bet on the Net 



as usual though I will NOT count his Yankees/Mets/Jets/Giants odds here on Covers ... Although I will be both the Unders 


You sound smart and so does your bookie. I'm sure he suckers most of those type of fans in without them even knowing. Good luck to you.
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#41
Posted: 2/22/2013 5:56:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jfio626:

Per Covers, Atlantis Casino in Reno posted season W/L totals today. Some of the ones that caught my eye on first glance:

Braves Over 86 - I've hammered this prop the last two years at this exact number, with the Upton additions this year and another strong rotation, no reason why this one won't cash by mid-September.

Twins Over 64.5 - A lot of winnable games in that division IMO, I see this group getting to 70 wins at least.

Indians Under 77.5 - Just not drinking the Kool-Aid on this club yet, even with the recent additions.

Thoughts?


couldn't agree more, they will strikeout alot, but this offense is significantly better that last year.  Pitching should be about the same, beachy due back in june.  simmins for the whole season, a star in the making.  If the braves have a lead going into the 7th, the game is over.  end of story!!!!

  I wa suprised that the nats number was 88.5, the should win 95 easy, much as I hate to say that.
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#42
Posted: 2/22/2013 9:49:31 PM
5 Dimes vs the Local to Win Division Odds 

East              5 D        Local 
Yankees       +150        -130
Jays             +185        +220
Rays            +340         4-1
Red Sox         5-1          +420
O's                +750         12-1
 

Central
Tigers            -290         -385
White Sox       +645          6-1
Indians            10-1           10-1
Royals             7-1             10-1
Twins               22-1           40-1

West 
Angels            -150             -225       
Rangers           +190           +210
A's                  6-1              +450
Mariners         +1450           18-1
Astros            60-1              100-1
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#43
Posted: 2/22/2013 10:50:45 PM
               5 Dimes           Local       

NL 

East
Nats            +110       +115         
Braves        +225        +225
Phillies        +250        +375   
Mets           14-1           6-1
Marlins        33-1         60-1

Central 
Reds           -130          -110
Cardinals      +210          +175
Pirates          +1050        +825
Brewers        +580          +725
Cubs              18-1           22-1

West
Dodgers        -110           -130
Giants            +230         +250
D-Backs          4-1          +650
Padres           19-1          30-1
Rockies           30-1         28-1



Keep in mind as stated the Local gets load of Homer Yankees and Mets Action
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#44
Posted: 2/23/2013 1:26:48 PM

Ok-what's my credibility? Had the Dodgers  over 81 last year-could see the improvement in the prev 2nd half...Got the Clips over 49 wins right now and the Lakers Under 54(already cashed)...

I took the Lakers Under for the the reason you should fade them Under and esp. the first 2 months-Dream teams never cash-too much to mesh together-guys learing each other's tendencies on top of major added expectations...recipe for disaster.

Fade the Blue Jays for the same...

Take the Padres like the 2012 Dodgers-can'  wait to take them vs LAD head to head early...great 2nd half-rising stars like Headley and Qunitana, no respect, AND new owners that will spend $ at some point to help...

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#45
Posted: 2/24/2013 12:28:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

Ok-what's my credibility? Had the Dodgers  over 81 last year-could see the improvement in the prev 2nd half...Got the Clips over 49 wins right now and the Lakers Under 54(already cashed)...

I took the Lakers Under for the the reason you should fade them Under and esp. the first 2 months-Dream teams never cash-too much to mesh together-guys learing each other's tendencies on top of major added expectations...recipe for disaster.

Fade the Blue Jays for the same...

Take the Padres like the 2012 Dodgers-can'  wait to take them vs LAD head to head early...great 2nd half-rising stars like Headley and Qunitana, no respect, AND new owners that will spend $ at some point to help...


Fading the Jays might be a good idea if Oddsmakers go over the top ..  

I need to do more work on the Padres .. the Division is very tough at the top . I Like the D-backs , but who knows 


So u told us about ur potential futures winners ... what Losers did u have ??? can't win them all 

Best of Luck brother 

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#46
Posted: 2/25/2013 9:21:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

East
Rays 94    86  O/U-110
Jays 91      89  O+100  U-120
Yankees 88  88  O-115   U-105
O's 84           78.5   O-105  U-115 
Red Sox 81    83   O-105

I think you could be way off .

The Rays only weapon on offense is Longoria, and he can't stay healthy

Yanks are 1 year older, not any better than LY, and the injuries are going to mount unless they get very lucky.

Red Sox look like a 75 win team to me.

Orioles are due to take a step back after a big step forward LY.

Jays will have some chemistry concerns, and the pressure on them is going to be unbeleivable.  Can you imagine the callers on talk radio if/when Toronto starts the year with a losing record?

Even with the addition of Houston, the rest of the AL is probably better than they were LY

AL East as a hole averaged 84 wins LY.  Now you have them with 87 wins.  I don't see it.  I think they average 80 to 83 wins.


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#47
Posted: 2/25/2013 9:24:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:



So u told us about ur potential futures winners ... what Losers did u have ??? can't win them all 


I think I won 3 out of 11 NCAA futures bets last year on season wins.  Are you trying to tell me I can brag about my 3 wins without telling you about the 8 losses?      
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#48
Posted: 2/25/2013 11:23:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


I think you could be way off .

The Rays only weapon on offense is Longoria, and he can't stay healthy

Yanks are 1 year older, not any better than LY, and the injuries are going to mount unless they get very lucky.

Red Sox look like a 75 win team to me.

Orioles are due to take a step back after a big step forward LY.

Jays will have some chemistry concerns, and the pressure on them is going to be unbeleivable.  Can you imagine the callers on talk radio if/when Toronto starts the year with a losing record?

Even with the addition of Houston, the rest of the AL is probably better than they were LY

AL East as a hole averaged 84 wins LY.  Now you have them with 87 wins.  I don't see it.  I think they average 80 to 83 wins.



I am starting to agree with you ... Been doing lots of research/reading ... Coming way down on the Rays,Yanks, and Sox ...

Wanna Pull for the Jays , but the Media pressure up there is HUGE...I remember last year the Homer cats on the radio had the Jays winning 100+ easy ...  

Already on that Under 94.5 +100 with the Local for $500 ( will not count it here on covers) ...PW said he thought about raising his number to 96 until the Granderson injury ...

Yeah the Sox stink , and I could see Boston guy pounding that Over ... I will adjust my numbers today ....

Back to the NL ...Starting to like the Brewers a,d Padres as real dark horses , but want much better than what is currently offered ( you like either of these >???
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Posted: 2/25/2013 11:32:15 AM
Like your Royals bet. Their young lineup has the potential to be lethal. Gordon Escobar Hosmer Butler Perez and Moustakas have the potential to be the best of any top 6 in the league. They finally have an ace on their mound along with adding Davis and Santana to the rotation. I like the Royals this year. Good luck to you 
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Posted: 2/25/2013 11:57:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Back to the NL ...Starting to like the Brewers a,d Padres as real dark horses , but want much better than what is currently offered ( you like either of these >???

Padres starting pitching is good but I don't see any aces. Bullpen is very good.  Defense looks very good, so they are going to win some games.

The hitting is suspect, but still better than the last two years. But I don't see any protection in the line up for Headley, and Headley is unlikely to repeat the numbers from LY.  They need a big year from Alonso (who I like) but he may be a year away.  Maybin could be ready to break out, but he is not reliable.  Venable and Quentin are weak corner outfielders offensivley.  Forsythe and Cabrera are also very weak hitting.  PAdres will need to play small ball to manufacture some runs.

If it were Padres over 71 wins, I would like that.  Over 74.5 is not value IMO.  I have them winning 70 to 76 games.  I think the NL West will be a lot tougher this year than last year, and San Diego does not have the payroll to go toe to toe with the rest of the division.

Pads are 19-1 to win the NL East.  The true odds are likely closer to 50-1.  If you like the DBacks at +400, and don't like the Giants, LAD or Rockies, then I would put a few bucks on the Pads.

Best bet on the Pads this year will be betting on them when they play at home, and not so much the future, IMO.
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