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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THE CHASE LOUNGE
Angle4U999 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:52:02 AM
Once again in honor of  Semperfi and McShady, here we go again. It's late so I probably won't post spreadsheet links until after noon on Tuesday. If anyone wants to post them, feel free. They are Go_Nads, mjnorman, Moth's and Billybaroo. They all have some awesome stuff.

Nice hits on lowest total under and highest total over!

Will be back after noon central, sleep-in day for me.

Thanks to everyone who posts, contributes, lurks and EVERYONE for keeping this thread positive! You guys are the greatest!
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#2
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:02:30 PM

Bogey, I didn't pick up Orlando on the "fade homers" because they were not coming home. BUT they were travelling from LAC. It was a brutal trip for Orlando. Thanks again for the easy win.

I am going to Fade Washington next 3, they have won like 3 in a row with last night's as a 29 point beatdown.

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#3
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:02:53 PM
Thanks Angle for starting the thread...
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#4
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:10:05 PM

A interesting NBA game tonite in Indiana - Charlotte. Charlotte playing 4th game in 5 days and coming home after playing 3 games on a all east road trip. This is what is interesting the line.has Indiana as a 7- point fav. This is interesting because in all of Charlotte's home games only 3 teams including Indiana have had a spread equal to or over that number. Clippers were 8 Miami was 9 and San Antonio was 9-.and the Knicks were 7-. Memphis was 6- and Dallas was 6. They beat Indiana first game of the season getting 7 90 - 89. the other 6 games went 3 -3 against the spread. Is Indiana that good to be laying almost the same as the Clippers Miami. and not covering in there last 3 games themselves. Looks like they are begging for Charlotte money so Im playing the Pacers.

Brooklyn is red hot covering the last 4 games and SU last 6 games. Clipps and Lakers nothing. Just thought Id throw that out there and see what you guys think.

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#5
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:12:50 PM
Locked and Loaded:

NO/PHIL UNDER-184

MILWK/LAL-OVER 211

Good luck to everyone and standing by ANGLE for possible CHASE PLAY(s)....
Posted using a mobile device.
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#6
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:41:00 PM

Bogey, you're up early today! Thanks for Indiana, like them and the under.

I keep asking but no-one answers, maybe bec. there is none. Any sites show historical 1st Q or 1st half lines and results? Bueller? Bueller?

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#7
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:42:36 PM
Just saw LAC Chris Paul doubtful, line went from 1.5 to 3.
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#8
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:13:54 PM

LOL at Moth at getting up early as I get up at least 3 times a night between a half hour or 2 hours everynite due to sleep problems. Fricking sucks anyway Paul didnt play last nite either but he is definately a factor in any game.

NCAAB Again someone I respect very much played a game at double his normal wager tonite on Northern Iowa getting 13 its now at 11 and they are playing Creighton in Creighton. Wisconsin is playing Indiana tonite in Indiana and Indiana is a 10- point favorite. Wisconsin has won the last 10 straight up and covered in 8 of those 10. Obviously you cant compare these teams over the last 5 years due to major suspensions and scholarships to Indiana but last year both teams had great years. Wisconsin won there games on Jordan Taylor having monster games scoring 39 and 28 and Rob Wilson scoring 30 in another and they are no longer with the team. I think the number is about right as Wisc. plays much better at home than on the road and Indiana almost let a 21 point lead in the 2nd half disappear. That I believe is very important because it lets them know they cant be careless with a large lead and not make stupid mistakes like they did. Im playing Indiana minus 10 as I will buy a half point. Hey looks like a Indiana night in NBA and NCAAB. Best of luck to everyone on your plays tonite.

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#9
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:04:13 PM
No Chase Plays for Tuesday

Stay tuned for update on Wednesday...
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#10
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:23:59 PM

Bogey, A big glass of wine will help your sleeping probs. Followed by 2 asprin before bedtime. A melatonin also helps if you toss and turn a lot.

 I'll tail you on NIowa. Bought to 11.5.

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#11
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:33:52 PM
I'm going to post some write-ups that sound interesting...

The Nuggets have been sensational at home where they are 14-2 (11-5 ATS) and have outscored their opponents by an average of 9.6 points. Home court has certainly treated them well against Portland. The Nuggets have won seven straight at home in the series by an average of 14.1 points. Looking back further, we find that the Trailblazers are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets lost at Portland last month in the season’s first matchup so they will be hungry for revenge tonight.
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#12
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:38:23 PM
More on Denver...

I think oddsmakers have listed the Nuggets as a large favorite in order to try and get the public to take the Trailblazers. I'm not falling for it. Portland has played extremely well of late, but they have won of the worst benches in the NBA. That's going to be a huge factor with the game being played in the thin air of Denver. Not to mention this will be Portland's fourth game in the last six days. When you factor in that their last three opponents were the Heat, Warriors and Thunder, hard to imagine this team has anything left in the tank for the Nuggets.
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#13
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:41:19 PM
Here's another one that sounds good...

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They should not be a 7-point underdog at Brooklyn tonight. Toronto has won 10 of its last 14 games overall, and it is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 contests. The Nets are overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak against mostly soft competition heading into this one. They are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games after a game where they covered the spread. The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
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#14
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:43:44 PM
Remember NO is a hot 1Q play...

Only one time this season have the Hornets been offered fewer road points than the three points being offered here and that came against the weak Bobcats. New Orleans has been offered double-digits on the road in eight of its 18 road games so it comes as quite a surprise that they're being offered just three here when they were recently offered 8 at Milwaukee, 10 at Houston, 7½ at Indiana and 7 at Dallas among others. It's not like the Hornets are on fire either with a 6-5 record over its last 11. The line strongly suggests a big game from the Hornets or a poor one from the Sixers. The 76ers are five games better than the Hornets, they’re the home team and they're coming off a nice win over Houston. Something is off. Perhaps it’s the lack of trust in Philly’s offense, a unit that has been on a terrible decline for weeks. The Sixers have scored 89 or less in seven of nine and only surpassed that number during that stretch against the Lakers and Rockets. With just four wins in its last 17 games and having nothing but misery against strong defensive clubs, expect the visitor to be in a strong position to win this one
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#15
Posted: 1/15/2013 3:45:57 PM
SS Updated.

Changed the lines to reflect last 30 days instead of season to date.

Also added a streak trend line to show ytd % of streak continuing.

GL all
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Posted: 1/15/2013 3:49:39 PM
Here's a game I like under the total...

What to expect: One, if not both teams will continue to struggle offensively - if anything we'll see an uglier game than we did on Saturday, when the Pacers prevailed 96-88 in this same matchup. The Bobcats have been held under 90 points in three straight games. Even in last night's contest in Boston, a game in which the 'Cats seemed to be gaining some traction at times, they still managed to put up only 89, and that was...thanks in large part to a late scoring flurry that came when the result had long been decided. Kemba Walker looked a little worse for wear after the game, on a night when he shot just 4-of-16 from the field. I just don't see a lot of room for improvement against another tough defensive opponent, playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Indiana hasn't scored 100 points in a game since doing so in Atlanta on December 29th. The Pacers didn't have Paul George for Saturday's win over the Bobcats, but he returned on Sunday. Keep in mind, they had D.J. Augustin step up with an 18-point effort off the bench in that win over Charlotte - a performance he's unlikely to duplicate tonight. Lance Stephenson was forced to leave Sunday's game with an ankle injury and is questionable to return tonight - remember, he scored 17 points on Saturday. We'll see a couple of high-scoring quarters in this one, but there will also be a couple of prolonged scoring droughts to ultimately keep the final score 'under' the posted total.
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Posted: 1/15/2013 3:53:14 PM
More on NO Hornets...

It has been a disappointing season for the Philadelphia 76ers to this point, and they have not been able to stop the bleeding. Philly is 4-13 over their last 17 games. The New Orleans Hornets have had even less success on the season. But, for the moment they are a bad team that is playing very well. They have won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming against the NY Knicks. New Orleans should be playing with purpose here, as they scored just 62 points in a home loss to the Sixers early in the season. New Orleans has done a fantastic job of coming back from a big double-digit loss in their previous game, to follow with a superb 14-3 ATS mark in their last 17. Philadelphia’s struggles vs. the West are well documented at just 8-20 ATS in their last 28.
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#18
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:02:16 PM
question: for the nba what defines "fade the home team returning from a west/east coast road trip" i've seen it mentioned here before..is there a certain amount of games that need to be played on the riad trip? etc.. appreciate any insight. bol 2nite fellas!
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#19
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:43:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hi2ak:

question: for the nba what defines "fade the home team returning from a west/east coast road trip" i've seen it mentioned here before..is there a certain amount of games that need to be played on the riad trip? etc.. appreciate any insight. bol 2nite fellas!

4 games min.

But Bogey liked Washington at home bec. Orlando was flying West coast to East coast. I have a SS. But is normally any team flying across country to play a home game.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArtvW2coXCHsdEpsNzVuQm40N2hwVkxKZlp5Vl9yOVE#gid=1

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#20
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:46:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bogey533:

LOL at Moth at getting up early as I get up at least 3 times a night between a half hour or 2 hours everynite due to sleep problems. Fricking sucks anyway Paul didnt play last nite either but he is definately a factor in any game.

NCAAB Again someone I respect very much played a game at double his normal wager tonite on Northern Iowa getting 13 its now at 11 and they are playing Creighton in Creighton. Wisconsin is playing Indiana tonite in Indiana and Indiana is a 10- point favorite. Wisconsin has won the last 10 straight up and covered in 8 of those 10. Obviously you cant compare these teams over the last 5 years due to major suspensions and scholarships to Indiana but last year both teams had great years. Wisconsin won there games on Jordan Taylor having monster games scoring 39 and 28 and Rob Wilson scoring 30 in another and they are no longer with the team. I think the number is about right as Wisc. plays much better at home than on the road and Indiana almost let a 21 point lead in the 2nd half disappear. That I believe is very important because it lets them know they cant be careless with a large lead and not make stupid mistakes like they did. Im playing Indiana minus 10 as I will buy a half point. Hey looks like a Indiana night in NBA and NCAAB. Best of luck to everyone on your plays tonite.

 

Hey Bogey , here's some info on that No Iowa game that' interesting.



Play On - Road underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (N IOWA) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% 21.9 units

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#21
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:50:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

Here's another one that sounds good...

The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They should not be a 7-point underdog at Brooklyn tonight. Toronto has won 10 of its last 14 games overall, and it is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 contests. The Nets are overvalued right now due to their 6-game winning streak against mostly soft competition heading into this one. They are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games after a game where they covered the spread. The Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

 

Angle here's some more on that Tor game.

Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (BROOKLYN) after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team.
63-29 since 1997. ( 68.5% 31.1 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

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#22
Posted: 1/15/2013 4:57:44 PM
Billybaroo's NBA 1st and 4th QTR ATS spreadsheet...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqfjyCBnJ4d9dE5qX1hkZHF1bTJua254cHRwSklzN2c#gid=0

MJNORMAN's NBA covers closing line trends (modified to last 30 days) and more, new info added!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgBuYruLsuPvdHgtbnM4cWxlcVAxQjl5Sk16VzUxX1E#gid=0

Moth's NBA 25pt beatdown, OT fade, Long Road Trip Fade, Daily Lowest and HIghest Totals, etc...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArtvW2coXCHsdEpsNzVuQm40N2hwVkxKZlp5Vl9yOVE#gid=0

GO_NADS NCAAB set-line spreadsheet...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqJA39cKbuspdFo5ZTg4eC1wWkFINEx0Sl9uX3c0Umc#gid=0
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#23
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:04:51 PM
Thx Billy for the additional info. hi2ak, I think it's at least 3 games but I'm not sure. You may check Moths's spreadsheet or I am sure he will answer for you.

Angle out, GL everyone!
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#24
Posted: 1/15/2013 5:24:26 PM
thx for answering my question moth.

billybaroo so youre saying n. iowa 1h & brk 1h are the plays? those trends you came up with are very interesting and im thinking about laying some coin on em. just want to make sure im reading it right
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#25
Posted: 1/15/2013 6:08:55 PM
I don`t play quarters but Nuggets have outscored opponents by an average of 12 their last 4 home games .
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