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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2
schiman send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
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#126
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:32:34 PM
Sorry if I wasn't clear, when I say 'spread' I mean abs(spread).  Porky came up with this idea of betting toward what the 2H spread *should be* vs what it actually is.

Don't have a great example for today but see if this makes sense:
Eg: jets -3 Indy 
(21-6) -3= 12. So to get back to the Jets winning by 3, the 2nd have line should be Indy -12, instead it was pick em.   So adding 0 to our equation, you get 12.   I personally don't play that b/c it hits about 58% of the time in pros, porky would take it b/c his number is usually 10.

Interesting analysis shows the bet appearing to be counter productive.... I.e. the worse line you get, the better propensity to take the bet.  But I believe the theory is that if Vegas is confident enough to place that much disparity from its opening line, then that team warrants a wager to cover it.


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#127
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:32:59 PM
I have both games at 8. But yester I leaned more to the Over in the Yanks game. Today I would lean Under
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hi2ak
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#128
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:35:25 PM
Schiman, missed out on the Jets..by the calculations I had it right at 19..
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#129
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:37:26 PM
The 2H lines are computer generated and it doesnt have emotion to recover losses. It is a formula for probability just like what we try and do. Straight up every game the same would be 50%. With added filters you make ur profit. 
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hi2ak
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#130
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:53:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by schiman:

Sorry if I wasn't clear, when I say 'spread' I mean abs(spread).  Porky came up with this idea of betting toward what the 2H spread *should be* vs what it actually is.

Don't have a great example for today but see if this makes sense:
Eg: jets -3 Indy 
(21-6) -3= 12. So to get back to the Jets winning by 3, the 2nd have line should be Indy -12, instead it was pick em.   So adding 0 to our equation, you get 12.   I personally don't play that b/c it hits about 58% of the time in pros, porky would take it b/c his number is usually 10.

Interesting analysis shows the bet appearing to be counter productive.... I.e. the worse line you get, the better propensity to take the bet.  But I believe the theory is that if Vegas is confident enough to place that much disparity from its opening line, then that team warrants a wager to cover it.




Guess I did my calculations wrong..I'm no math major thats for sure.. I did it this way:

(21-6) -(-3.5) +.5 = 19
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#131
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:00:22 PM
Lol - but still looking like a winner ;)
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#132
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:04:25 PM
GB/Hou over 46
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#133
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:08:39 PM
Montreal 24-12
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#134
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:09:30 PM
Montreal 24-12
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#135
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:14:23 PM
Sorry about duplicate, computer got really slow and I was looking at the end of Cowboys game.

All that improvement, and lost at the end on 2 pt conversion....LOL
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#136
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:17:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

Sorry about duplicate, computer got really slow and I was looking at the end of Cowboys game.

All that improvement, and lost at the end on 2 pt conversion....LOL

after that backdoor cover i hope the cowboys score here out of sheer bitterness on my part
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#137
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:19:34 PM
Spoke too soon, recovered on-side kick! Lost my bet!

Pass interference.....I need some luck now in order to enjoy post-game show.

Need a penalty or goof-up by Cowboys.
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#138
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:23:28 PM
Post game "Cryfest" is on! Cowboys miss field goal...

Got my break, it was close!

www.theticket.com click on "Listen Now"

Coors Banquet #2 (already drank one)

GL GUYS!!!

Some of the Angles have won today, will re-cap later.

I'm going to relax and let the crying begin....

Check it out Shawty!!!
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#139
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:46:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

Post game "Cryfest" is on! Cowboys miss field goal...

Got my break, it was close!

www.theticket.com click on "Listen Now"

Coors Banquet #2 (already drank one)

GL GUYS!!!

Some of the Angles have won today, will re-cap later.

I'm going to relax and let the crying begin....

Check it out Shawty!!!

sorry bud didnt realize you had the ML thought you got screwed just like me lol good hit my man
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#140
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:53:17 PM
Lions win!!!! Awesome
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#141
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:08:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Lions win!!!! Awesome

Feel stupid to ask again, but where did you post this bet?? I cant find it in the thread.
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#142
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:13:42 PM
Maybe Shady's a devout Lions fan. I thought it was awesome also. Hit my 3 teamer with that win.
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#143
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:26:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Codearmani:


Feel stupid to ask again, but where did you post this bet?? I cant find it in the thread.


Haha. No bet. I live in Eagle-ville 
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#144
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:29:44 PM
BTW i wouldnt tail me in football. The only players names I know are on my Fantasy team.  
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#145
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:43:58 PM
haha okay great :-) Just read the thread a lot of times before asking ;)) 


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#146
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:52:33 PM
2H Vikings@Redskins un21.5


This is a play, but not for me since i have the OVER. SLIM MIDDLE
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#147
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:55:03 PM
@McTrendz: 2H Giants@49ers un23
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#148
Posted: 10/14/2012 5:57:11 PM
OKAY BOYS...I have my biggest single play of the season on NYY/DET under 8 and they are 0-0 after 6 innngs.  If this goes over I am done betting baseball......Last night's Collapse was an absolute no lube behind job.....  GO BROWNS..FINALLY!!!
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#149
Posted: 10/14/2012 6:03:15 PM
I with ya Sempy!
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billyloco
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#150
Posted: 10/14/2012 6:04:12 PM
2h NE -1/2
NE ttl O/13
Wash +2
NYG +5 

soory foir being late on these, woman annoying the hell outta me.
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