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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2
schiman	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2010 Posts: 138 Location: North Carolina	#126 Posted: 10/14/2012 3:32:34 PM Sorry if I wasn't clear, when I say 'spread' I mean abs(spread). Porky came up with this idea of betting toward what the 2H spread should be vs what it actually is. Don't have a great example for today but see if this makes sense: Eg: jets -3 Indy (21-6) -3= 12. So to get back to the Jets winning by 3, the 2nd have line should be Indy -12, instead it was pick em. So adding 0 to our equation, you get 12. I personally don't play that b/c it hits about 58% of the time in pros, porky would take it b/c his number is usually 10. Interesting analysis shows the bet appearing to be counter productive.... I.e. the worse line you get, the better propensity to take the bet. But I believe the theory is that if Vegas is confident enough to place that much disparity from its opening line, then that team warrants a wager to cover it.
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#127 Posted: 10/14/2012 3:32:59 PM I have both games at 8. But yester I leaned more to the Over in the Yanks game. Today I would lean Under
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hi2ak	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 295 Location: Alaska	#128 Posted: 10/14/2012 3:35:25 PM Schiman, missed out on the Jets..by the calculations I had it right at 19..
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#129 Posted: 10/14/2012 3:37:26 PM The 2H lines are computer generated and it doesnt have emotion to recover losses. It is a formula for probability just like what we try and do. Straight up every game the same would be 50%. With added filters you make ur profit.
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hi2ak	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 295 Location: Alaska	#130 Posted: 10/14/2012 3:53:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by schiman: Sorry if I wasn't clear, when I say 'spread' I mean abs(spread). Porky came up with this idea of betting toward what the 2H spread should be vs what it actually is. Don't have a great example for today but see if this makes sense: Eg: jets -3 Indy (21-6) -3= 12. So to get back to the Jets winning by 3, the 2nd have line should be Indy -12, instead it was pick em. So adding 0 to our equation, you get 12. I personally don't play that b/c it hits about 58% of the time in pros, porky would take it b/c his number is usually 10. Interesting analysis shows the bet appearing to be counter productive.... I.e. the worse line you get, the better propensity to take the bet. But I believe the theory is that if Vegas is confident enough to place that much disparity from its opening line, then that team warrants a wager to cover it. Guess I did my calculations wrong..I'm no math major thats for sure.. I did it this way: (21-6) -(-3.5) +.5 = 19
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schiman	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas \|
Prospect Joined: Dec 2010 Posts: 138 Location: North Carolina	#131 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:00:22 PM Lol - but still looking like a winner ;)
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#132 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:04:25 PM GB/Hou over 46
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#133 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:08:39 PM Montreal 24-12
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#134 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:09:30 PM Montreal 24-12
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#135 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:14:23 PM Sorry about duplicate, computer got really slow and I was looking at the end of Cowboys game. All that improvement, and lost at the end on 2 pt conversion....LOL
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#136 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:17:53 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999: Sorry about duplicate, computer got really slow and I was looking at the end of Cowboys game. All that improvement, and lost at the end on 2 pt conversion....LOL after that backdoor cover i hope the cowboys score here out of sheer bitterness on my part
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#137 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:19:34 PM Spoke too soon, recovered on-side kick! Lost my bet! Pass interference.....I need some luck now in order to enjoy post-game show. Need a penalty or goof-up by Cowboys.
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Angle4U999	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 3058 Location:	#138 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:23:28 PM Post game "Cryfest" is on! Cowboys miss field goal... Got my break, it was close! www.theticket.com click on "Listen Now" Coors Banquet #2 (already drank one) GL GUYS!!! Some of the Angles have won today, will re-cap later. I'm going to relax and let the crying begin.... Check it out Shawty!!!
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shawty321	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 686 Location:	#139 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:46:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999: Post game "Cryfest" is on! Cowboys miss field goal... Got my break, it was close! www.theticket.com click on "Listen Now" Coors Banquet #2 (already drank one) GL GUYS!!! Some of the Angles have won today, will re-cap later. I'm going to relax and let the crying begin.... Check it out Shawty!!! sorry bud didnt realize you had the ML thought you got screwed just like me lol good hit my man
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#140 Posted: 10/14/2012 4:53:17 PM Lions win!!!! Awesome
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Codearmani	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 383 Location: Denmark	#141 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:08:53 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady: Lions win!!!! Awesome Feel stupid to ask again, but where did you post this bet?? I cant find it in the thread.
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Jonesin	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 355 Location:	#142 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:13:42 PM Maybe Shady's a devout Lions fan. I thought it was awesome also. Hit my 3 teamer with that win.
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#143 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:26:36 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Codearmani: Feel stupid to ask again, but where did you post this bet?? I cant find it in the thread. Haha. No bet. I live in Eagle-ville
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#144 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:29:44 PM BTW i wouldnt tail me in football. The only players names I know are on my Fantasy team.
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Codearmani	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 383 Location: Denmark	#145 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:43:58 PM haha okay great :-) Just read the thread a lot of times before asking ;))
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#146 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:52:33 PM 2H Vikings@Redskins un21.5 This is a play, but not for me since i have the OVER. SLIM MIDDLE
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#147 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:55:03 PM @McTrendz: 2H Giants@49ers un23
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semperfi19	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Aug 2009 Posts: 2120 Location:	#148 Posted: 10/14/2012 5:57:11 PM OKAY BOYS...I have my biggest single play of the season on NYY/DET under 8 and they are 0-0 after 6 innngs. If this goes over I am done betting baseball......Last night's Collapse was an absolute no lube behind job..... GO BROWNS..FINALLY!!!
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McShady	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: May 2011 Posts: 2768 Location:	#149 Posted: 10/14/2012 6:03:15 PM I with ya Sempy!
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billyloco	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
MVP Joined: Nov 2004 Posts: 16876 Location: Georgia	#150 Posted: 10/14/2012 6:04:12 PM 2h NE -1/2 NE ttl O/13 Wash +2 NYG +5 soory foir being late on these, woman annoying the hell outta me.
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