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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2
McShady send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 10/14/2012 10:54:51 AM
Post #1 ....all plays but 2H's
Post #15...all 2H plays


This my 1st year sharing Football so my confidence level is slowing growing. But Ive always said a community thread is for strong plays with research or hx behind it. Mine has neither. Purely #'s formula of probability
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Moth61 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
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#102
Posted: 10/14/2012 10:58:07 AM
mj, you can find historical data at Scoresandodds.com. There is a calendar there. I know you can go back atleast 1 year.
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#103
Posted: 10/14/2012 10:59:33 AM
Thx. Just try to test a few angles. 
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#104
Posted: 10/14/2012 11:05:11 AM

PAPA VELVERDE, ouch,  4-0 going into the 9th and another tough beat.    Still chasing that under.  UNDER 8.....Good luck. 

START NL CHASE TODAY AS WELL..

CARDS  +115  for 500 to win 575

Thanks for the CFB plays McShady you saved my day!  Headed back home today...GOOD LUCK EVERYONE! 

 

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#105
Posted: 10/14/2012 11:24:31 AM
Semper u still like the under with drake behind the plate? His strike zone is tiny
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#106
Posted: 10/14/2012 11:36:37 AM

Been following the thread, very informing with some great cappers, NFL plays, always try to bet in a series of 3 or 5. 3 early games

Jets -3

KC +4 1/2

St Louis +5

 

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#107
Posted: 10/14/2012 11:37:27 AM
why did SD go from 3 pt favorite to 1 point home dog?
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hi2ak
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#108
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:00:07 PM
Hey Schiman, will try out your 2H formulas. Anything for totals?
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#109
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:06:22 PM
People will say otherwise, but I find totals have NO consistency.  Every formula for college and pro always gets me to 45-55% for the year.   So I tend to follow good cappers if I'm ever tempted to play a total.
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#110
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:08:14 PM

Shaner, you must be new to this thread, I have writeen several times about what I think about umpire trends. Yes I am staying with the under..... 

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#111
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:14:21 PM
GOOD LUCK TODAY BOYS.  THE BILLS ARE ON MY HAMMER LIST.   
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#112
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:20:33 PM
yes, BOL  
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#113
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:21:24 PM
Atlanta to win and under
TB 14-6 at half 5****
Cleve underdog and over (14-13 1/2)
Philly to win 
Stl Miami  13 points 2 nd 1/4 14 4th 1/4
24-17 balt
23-18 ariz
7-7 sea NE 1st 1/4 under 23-20 game
SF over the posted 4th 1/4 5***
13-10  indy jets @ 1/2 under and tie for game
14-10 SD 1/2 24-23 Denver 

Some capping I did last night these were best angles I could find. 

Only play left outstanding is Atlanta on a five teamed to win m/l for 2500$ for 100$ bet. I'm playing the five star plays no set number plays for me today. 

Will jump in on some second half value



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#114
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:23:42 PM
on the cards ML and yanks under. Last night i had LA Tech +9... they were down 27-0 in the first quarter. Final score: 59-57. Game truly isnt over until it's over fellas.

Also had the cards when they came back against the nats on friday. ive had some REAL big breaks the past few days lol
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#115
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:26:45 PM
Thanks for sharing that information Schiman.
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#116
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:42:10 PM
Been on vacation so have been just a follower. Would be up last 2 days if not for my west v and San Jose state bets.

Following the proliferation and the Angle double angles today (conflict go to Angle)

Hit Det and the over last night. Chasing the under today.  Chasing cards and away scores first. 

BOL everyone. 5 more hours of driving then done. 
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#117
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:52:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by semperfi19:

Shaner, you must be new to this thread, I have writeen several times about what I think about umpire trends. Yes I am staying with the under..... 


I've been following you for sometime now. Thanks for clarifying
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#118
Posted: 10/14/2012 12:56:10 PM
Newfie, I got Montreal -1 in CFL any thoughts?
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#119
Posted: 10/14/2012 1:03:43 PM
None on Montreal Angle haven't checked it out too busy with NFL 
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#120
Posted: 10/14/2012 2:14:28 PM
ROMO!
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#121
Posted: 10/14/2012 2:30:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by schiman:

Hey guys, sorry for not chiming yesterday - had an OOT wedding.

I back tested Porkys 2h system.  It works great at about 60% clip... But you're playing about 20+ games a day... Too much for me.

I've been playing this and it hits about 70% with 1-6 plays a week:

If dog is winning at half:
Score diff + game spread - 2H spread >= 19, play the dog

If fav is winning at half:
Score diff - game spread + 2H spread >= 19, play the fav. 

This assumes the 2H fav is the game fav, if not - flip the 2H sign.

I also play Angles parlays system... That hits nicely as well, if spread/total > 44% makes it a play for me.  I think that went 5-2 yesterday.  

Btw- 19 is the magic number for college, 13.5 is the number I use for NFL, I also double the unit amount  if it gets to 19... Which doesn't happen too often.

GL

On the formulas are using the negative number for the Favorites spread and 2nd half spread?
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hi2ak
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#122
Posted: 10/14/2012 2:45:40 PM
I was wondering the same thing ^
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#123
Posted: 10/14/2012 2:50:31 PM

Late NFL Plays

San Fran -6 1/2 (-130)

Seattle +3 1/2

Wash + 1 1/2

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#124
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:08:08 PM
Subtracting a neg # is the same as adding it


I lost my Vikings OVER last week. Dbl' down this week
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#125
Posted: 10/14/2012 3:17:24 PM
Shady what #'s do you have on the total of the Det/NYY game?
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