Posted: 10/18/2012 2:04:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kljmd007:
Anyone like team to score first Tigers +115??? (Got NYY to win so would make that team to score first loses for me)
I am chasing first to score loses for GM 4 DET/NY (game 2 of my chase) and I don't like to play those together.
However, (last 3 years) 5 times a team has scored first the first three games in series. All were away, away and home. Only 1x did they score first the 4th game at home (STL v MIL last year, STL scored 1st all 6 games). But, STL lost that game so the trend would be 1-0 that the team scored first each game in the first 4 and lost the 4th game of a series, which would be good for your DET first to score and NYY win bets.
For the 2012 season (using the tricky SDQL stuff) -
Home team scores first and wins = 32.3%
Home team scores first and loses = 12.4%
Away team scores first and wins = 20.9%
Away team scores first and loses = 34.4%
In short, first to score loses has a 46.8% chance of hitting and a line around +200 would tell me that the odds makers think only a 33.3% chance.
Your bets (first to score DET and NY win) have 12.4% chance of hitting, using season actuals. That is why I stay away from doubling those two up.
2012 Detroit at home:
DET score first and win = 39.3%
DET score first and lose = 11.9%
Away score first and win = 23.8%
Away score first and lose = 25.0%
Summary first to score and lose around 36.9% (closer to a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 11.9%.
2012 NYY Away:
NYY score first and win = 36.9%
NYY score first and lose = 20.2%
home score first and win = 16.7%
home score first and lose = 26.2%
Summary first to score and lose around 46.2% (great % for a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 26.2%.
Use the numbers anyway you want.
My only play (locked) and last chase still going is first to score loses +215. May add an OU or some other props but will not play a ML or RL.