CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2
McShady PM McShady
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quote#576
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:05:02 AM
For dome reason I cant C&P from my SS. Is there a trick I dont know?
crowat PM crowat
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quote#577
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:38:05 AM
Hey McShady, I see you on AZ st today, if my book only offers +9 should I still tail? thanks!
4getaboutit PM 4getaboutit
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quote#578
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:40:05 AM
we still on NNY today??
ChipsNVouchers PM ChipsNVouchers
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quote#579
Posted: 10/18/2012 11:57:42 AM
Are we still on Yanks ML, full game over and F5 under?
Posted using a mobile device.
halofan PM halofan
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quote#580
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:02:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:

Are we still on Yanks ML, full game over and F5 under?

+1
Angle4U999 PM Angle4U999
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quote#581
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:08:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:

The 8.5 and 7.5 are my games I'm definitely on. Hopefully the SF ends at 7 Angle and we both get er'



Me too, I hate going against your plays! I think last week was just an exceptionally good week for those angles. I don't remember winning them all before!

GL tonite! Let's pull for the 7!
Angle4U999 PM Angle4U999
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quote#582
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:31:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Denman9999:

Hey Angle - a little behind here - could you catch me up on the NCAAF Correlated Play Angle? 



Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.

Make two 2-teamers on the same game.

Bet 1 Fave/Over
Bet 2 Dog/Under

Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.

Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.

If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.

Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.

You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.

You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.

Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.

Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.

Good luck!



Denman9999 PM Denman9999
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quote#583
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:35:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Angle4U999:



Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.

Make two 2-teamers on the same game.

Bet 1 Fave/Over
Bet 2 Dog/Under

Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.

Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.

If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.

Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.

You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.

You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.

Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.

Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.

Good luck!



Thanks Angle...appreciate the reply!!  Explained it perfectly! 

McShady PM McShady
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quote#584
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:48:50 PM
Im on the Yanks today. Not because I love it, but because I like my chances to win. Looking for perfect scenerio of Yanks win tonight, then Tigers tmrw and cash both wagers

Yanks to win 400
Tigers to win 1400


Kinda dig the F5 Under...
builtfspd2 PM builtfspd2
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quote#585
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:03:32 PM
It appears my book wont take parlays fav/over or dog/under.  Even tried round robin.  I have a "0" limit correlation.
Angle4U999 PM Angle4U999
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quote#586
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:07:10 PM
I went ahead and made a 2 teamer on the Yanks full game and the F5 under 3.5.

I also played Yank/Det total Runs/Hits/Errors under 23.5

That worked on STL game yesterday and may have worked withl the last several Yankees/Tigers games.

That was the first time I have ever made that bet but in the playoffs and all these pitching duels it made sense.

I'm on both home dogs in NCAA with Ariz St +8, SMU +6 (you may be able to get 7 later) and 49ers -6.

Angle out. GL everyone!


McShady PM McShady
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quote#587
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:11:00 PM
I like CFB Spreads 1pt either way
kljmd007 PM kljmd007
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quote#588
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:20:51 PM
Anyone like team to score first Tigers +115??? (Got NYY to win so would make that team to score first loses for me)
randognsac PM randognsac
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quote#589
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:25:29 PM
So to make sure I got this straight Newfie is on the Seahawks +7.5 and Angle is on SF -6. Both + Shady are on AzSt. +8.5 right?

Also these trend is still in play for tonight right?
More info NFL Thursday gms,  Home teams on Thursday after both played on Sunday are 55-40-2 ATS Since 1989.

When the HT is  Favored, the favorite is 37-18-2 ATS 67% .

The Under is 56-41 & in gms where the Home team is favored , the Under improves to 38-19 ( 67% )

So the Niners and the Under are the plays for those trends.
PIGGY_S PM PIGGY_S
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quote#590
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:28:07 PM
Alright my friends!! any props today?

McShady PM McShady
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quote#591
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:32:50 PM
 Since 2003, home teams ATS have gone 39-27 on Thursday night with home favorites 28-13.
Djd6180 PM Djd6180
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quote#592
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:44:39 PM
Do u guys like the prop no score in first inning tonight?
McShady PM McShady
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quote#593
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:58:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Djd6180:

Do u guys like the prop no score in first inning tonight?

Its been 5 Yankees games with NO Score. Id say its time for YES
Go_Nads PM Go_Nads
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quote#594
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:58:56 PM
FYI, NFL this weekend has a nice play on a trend

Prior to week 9, Road teams that lost their previous game as a Home Favorite since 2006 are:

60-19-4 Over/Under

One play this weekend is Arizona/Minnesota Over 40

If anyone is wanting to check the SDQL, here is the query used: 
A and p:LHF and week<9 and season>=2006
Newfie_Bullet PM Newfie_Bullet
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quote#595
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:59:13 PM

SF has won turnover battle 9-0 +9 last 3 matchups, 8 of those in last 2 seattle games at Candlestick.

Newfie_Bullet PM Newfie_Bullet
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quote#596
Posted: 10/18/2012 2:01:46 PM
What is trend for results after 3 straight home games in NFL
Newfie_Bullet PM Newfie_Bullet
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quote#597
Posted: 10/18/2012 2:03:09 PM
***For the 3rd straight home game not after***
McShady PM McShady
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quote#598
Posted: 10/18/2012 2:03:12 PM
@Nads. 

I just finished up a Chase on the Vikings Over. But i"ll ck it out. Thx
mjnorman59 PM mjnorman59
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quote#599
Posted: 10/18/2012 2:04:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kljmd007:

Anyone like team to score first Tigers +115??? (Got NYY to win so would make that team to score first loses for me)

I am chasing first to score loses for GM 4 DET/NY (game 2 of my chase) and I don't like to play those together.  

However, (last 3 years) 5 times a team has scored first the first three games in series.  All were away, away and home.  Only 1x did they score first the 4th game at home (STL v MIL last year, STL scored 1st all 6 games).  But, STL lost that game so the trend would be 1-0 that the team scored first each game in the first 4 and lost the 4th game of a series, which would be good for your DET first to score and NYY win bets.

For the 2012 season (using the tricky SDQL stuff) - 
Home team scores first and wins = 32.3%
Home team scores first and loses = 12.4%
Away team scores first and wins = 20.9%
Away team scores first and loses = 34.4%

In short, first to score loses has a 46.8% chance of hitting and a line around +200 would tell me that the odds makers think only a 33.3% chance.

Your bets (first to score DET and NY win) have 12.4% chance of hitting, using season actuals.  That is why I stay away from doubling those two up.

2012 Detroit at home:

DET score first and win = 39.3%
DET score first and lose = 11.9%
Away score first and win = 23.8%
Away score first and lose = 25.0%

Summary first to score and lose around 36.9% (closer to a +200 line).  But DET score first and lose about 11.9%.

2012 NYY Away:
NYY score first and win = 36.9%
NYY score first and lose = 20.2%
home score first and win = 16.7%
home score first and lose = 26.2%

Summary first to score and lose around 46.2% (great % for a +200 line).  But DET score first and lose about 26.2%.

Use the numbers anyway you want. 

My only play (locked) and last chase still going is first to score loses +215.  May add an OU or some other props but will not play a ML or RL.

BOL

McShady PM McShady
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quote#600
Posted: 10/18/2012 2:08:24 PM
^^^^^ mj

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