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[MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2 |
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McShady |
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#576 Posted: 10/18/2012 11:05:02 AM |
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crowat |
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#577 Posted: 10/18/2012 11:38:05 AM
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#578 Posted: 10/18/2012 11:40:05 AM |
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ChipsNVouchers |
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#579 Posted: 10/18/2012 11:57:42 AM |
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#580 Posted: 10/18/2012 12:02:33 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:
Are we still on Yanks ML, full game over and F5 under?
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Angle4U999 |
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#581 Posted: 10/18/2012 12:08:02 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet: The 8.5 and 7.5 are my games I'm definitely on. Hopefully the SF ends at 7 Angle and we both get er'
Me too, I hate going against your plays! I think last week was just an exceptionally good week for those angles. I don't remember winning them all before!
GL tonite! Let's pull for the 7!
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Angle4U999 |
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#582 Posted: 10/18/2012 12:31:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Denman9999:
Hey Angle - a little behind here - could you catch me up on the NCAAF Correlated Play Angle?
Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.
Make two 2-teamers on the same game.
Bet 1 Fave/Over
Bet 2 Dog/Under
Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.
Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.
If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.
Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.
You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.
You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.
Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.
Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.
Good luck!
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Denman9999 |
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#583 Posted: 10/18/2012 12:35:00 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
Divide spead by total. 35% or higher is a play. Some play 40% and Shiman plays 44% and up.
Make two 2-teamers on the same game.
Bet 1 Fave/Over
Bet 2 Dog/Under
Many books won't take these with this high percentage. They don't like them because there is a high "correlation" between the spread and total. Some will let you bet both if you change the amount by $1 on one of the parlays.
Example last week Alabama-21 total 41. If you think Alabama covers they surely go over, that is the "correlation". They did, so the fave/over parlay won and the dog/under lost. You will always lose 1 of them. Don't expect fave/over to work every time. Many times the dog/under will hit. Alabama won 42-10.
If Alabama shut them out 40-0, you lose both parlays.
Some times a strong defensive team like Alabama will blow out the other team and still go under. Sometimes a dog will bark too much and push the total over. You never know, some weeks the fave/over hits more and other times the dog/under will bail you out! Always play it both ways. That is the system.
You will always lose at least half of these bets no matter what. The key is winning enough to make money. With 2 teamer paying +2.6, you get a 1.6 unit profit any time you win one of the parlays.
You have to win 30% of the parlays to make money. If you have 10 and only win 3, that is 3 X 2.6 = 7.8 units won and 7 units lost on the 7 losers. You will have some bad weeks and later in the season these get harder to hit, so be fore-warned.
Remember the best you can do is win 50% of them. With 10 plays that would be 5 X 2.6 = 13 units won and then 5 units lost for maximum of 8 units profit on 10 plays.
Just be sure to ALWAYS bet BOTH ways. I sometimes bet either a side or total I like within the same games but if you stick to the system and don't bet a bunch of other games you will be farther ahead in the long run. It is a slow grind but it still gives you action even if there are only 3-5 games that fit the system each week.
Good luck!
Thanks Angle...appreciate the reply!! Explained it perfectly! |
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#584 Posted: 10/18/2012 12:48:50 PM
Yanks to win 400 Tigers to win 1400
Kinda dig the F5 Under... |
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#585 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:03:32 PM |
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#586 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:07:10 PM
I also played Yank/Det total Runs/Hits/Errors under 23.5
That worked on STL game yesterday and may have worked withl the last several Yankees/Tigers games.
That was the first time I have ever made that bet but in the playoffs and all these pitching duels it made sense.
I'm on both home dogs in NCAA with Ariz St +8, SMU +6 (you may be able to get 7 later) and 49ers -6.
Angle out. GL everyone!
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#587 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:11:00 PM |
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#588 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:20:51 PM |
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#589 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:25:29 PM
Also these trend is still in play for tonight right?
More info NFL Thursday gms, Home teams on Thursday after both played on Sunday are 55-40-2 ATS Since 1989.
When the HT is Favored, the favorite is 37-18-2 ATS 67% .
The Under is 56-41 & in gms where the Home team is favored , the Under improves to 38-19 ( 67% )
So the Niners and the Under are the plays for those trends.
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PIGGY_S |
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#590 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:28:07 PM
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#591 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:32:50 PM |
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#592 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:44:39 PM |
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#593 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:58:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Djd6180:
Do u guys like the prop no score in first inning tonight?
Its been 5 Yankees games with NO Score. Id say its time for YES |
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#594 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:58:56 PM
Prior to week 9, Road teams that lost their previous game as a Home Favorite since 2006 are:
60-19-4 Over/Under
One play this weekend is Arizona/Minnesota Over 40
If anyone is wanting to check the SDQL, here is the query used: A and p:LHF and week<9 and season>=2006 |
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#595 Posted: 10/18/2012 1:59:13 PM SF has won turnover battle 9-0 +9 last 3 matchups, 8 of those in last 2 seattle games at Candlestick. |
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#596 Posted: 10/18/2012 2:01:46 PM |
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#597 Posted: 10/18/2012 2:03:09 PM |
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#598 Posted: 10/18/2012 2:03:12 PM
I just finished up a Chase on the Vikings Over. But i"ll ck it out. Thx |
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#599 Posted: 10/18/2012 2:04:24 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kljmd007:
Anyone like team to score first Tigers +115??? (Got NYY to win so would make that team to score first loses for me)
I am chasing first to score loses for GM 4 DET/NY (game 2 of my chase) and I don't like to play those together.
However, (last 3 years) 5 times a team has scored first the first three games in series. All were away, away and home. Only 1x did they score first the 4th game at home (STL v MIL last year, STL scored 1st all 6 games). But, STL lost that game so the trend would be 1-0 that the team scored first each game in the first 4 and lost the 4th game of a series, which would be good for your DET first to score and NYY win bets.
For the 2012 season (using the tricky SDQL stuff) - Home team scores first and wins = 32.3% Home team scores first and loses = 12.4% Away team scores first and wins = 20.9% Away team scores first and loses = 34.4%
In short, first to score loses has a 46.8% chance of hitting and a line around +200 would tell me that the odds makers think only a 33.3% chance.
Your bets (first to score DET and NY win) have 12.4% chance of hitting, using season actuals. That is why I stay away from doubling those two up.
2012 Detroit at home:
DET score first and win = 39.3% DET score first and lose = 11.9% Away score first and win = 23.8% Away score first and lose = 25.0%
Summary first to score and lose around 36.9% (closer to a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 11.9%.
2012 NYY Away: NYY score first and win = 36.9% NYY score first and lose = 20.2% home score first and win = 16.7% home score first and lose = 26.2%
Summary first to score and lose around 46.2% (great % for a +200 line). But DET score first and lose about 26.2%.
Use the numbers anyway you want.
My only play (locked) and last chase still going is first to score loses +215. May add an OU or some other props but will not play a ML or RL.
BOL
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#600 Posted: 10/18/2012 2:08:24 PM
Your a Geek  |
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