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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 9:30 EST - Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:17:16 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80  (49.0%)  -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P:  23-20  (53.2%)  +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P:  2-1  (66.6%)  +1.10u
'11-12 MLB:  130-86 (60.2%)  +38.27u
'12-13 NFL:  15-5  (75.0%)  +15.05u

'11-12 MLB-P:  1-0 (100.0%)  +1.40u


9:30 EST - Detroit Tigers (-105)

I don't have a lot of time for a write-up so I'll keep this as simple as I can.  The Tigers have an elite offense against right-handers and they've already faced Griffin once this year (tagging him for 5 earned runs on 8 hits) so the unfamiliarity factor that has benefited him and the rest of the A's rookie staff is not in their favor.  Oakland's power hitting has been a big surprise in the second half of the season, but this power comes at the sacrifice of a high strike out rate (#28th in the MLB).  Scherzer is on a short list of the best strikeout pitchers in Baseball and with Oakland's huge park keeping his fly-balls in play I expect a dominant performance from Mad Max.  My model has this game lined at Detroit -147 with a 59.5% chance to come away with a victory.  At the current price the Tigers only need to win 51.2% of the time to make a profit.  Hell-of-a-deal if you ask me.
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#2
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:20:39 PM
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#3
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:21:17 PM
Fielder looks like he's about ready to bust out at the plate. Good luck si1ly!
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#4
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:22:41 PM
I'm also strongly considering the over in Cincinnati this afternoon.  My numbers show a strong variance against the Vegas line.. and at plus money in some places to return on risk seems enticing. 
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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:43:47 PM
Tigers    
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:45:43 PM
Lets go Tigers!
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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:10:58 PM
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:14:37 PM
GL
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#9
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:16:50 PM
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#10
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:20:02 PM
Thanks Si1ly, you and Key agree on this one.  Seems to be tough to call.  Looks like an under.
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#11
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:21:24 PM
had a feeling you would be on this one 
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#12
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:27:43 PM
Opinion is valued as always, I was leaning towards the tigers as well.. 

I love when the lines are so close... 

Locked in the Cards 1st 5 innings....looking great so far.

Thanks for getting the sheets up and running early in the day.


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#13
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:33:36 PM
If anybody cares to voice your opinion about the newly placed ads in the middle of every thread, there's a forum topic in the help section started by kaponofor3 that could become a persuasive petition for removal if enough people become involved.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmain.aspx?spt=17





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#14
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:34:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:



9:30 EST - Detroit Tigers (-105)

Scherzer is on a short list of the best strikeout pitchers in Baseball and with Oakland's huge park keeping his fly-balls in play I expect a dominant performance from Mad Max.  
 
...
 
max's career splits at oakland coliseum show 17 Ks in 11+ IP, plus a disturbing 4 HR allowed so we get a bit of both worlds there...
 
my concern is at around 180 IP, with gr8t #'s, and with 4 starts remaining in the reg season this guy had a legit shot at 20 Ws when suddenly he came down with what they called a dead arm feeling...
 
held out of one remaining start, limited IP in other 3, so i have questions about his arm strength and stamina in this critical spot...
 
maybe he just needed some rest...who really knows?...if he's throwing gas he'll get his Ks but IMO is susceptible to the gopher ball, might be gone early and best-case scenario won't go past 5-6 IP (bringing porcello, coke, smyly, benoit into the picture)...
 
GL on your play...im anticipating a game 5 in this dustup, contemplating a play on the ovah 2 nite
 
 
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#15
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:38:07 PM
My numbers acme up 61% and -156, not so diffe
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#16
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:38:43 PM
I personally think they are extremely obtrusive and really lowers the quality of the user experience on the forums.  The steps covers has taken in the last year or so in regards to their advertisers and ad placements has been very disappointing.  I'm finding the forum experience so annoying that I'm increasingly reluctant to linger here.
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#17
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:47:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I personally think they are extremely obtrusive and really lowers the quality of the user experience on the forums.  The steps covers has taken in the last year or so in regards to their advertisers and ad placements has been very disappointing.  I'm finding the forum experience so annoying that I'm increasingly reluctant to linger here.


Cant let that stop you bro.


Like the pick.
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:47:21 PM
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#19
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:54:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm also strongly considering the over in Cincinnati this afternoon.  My numbers show a strong variance against the Vegas line.. and at plus money in some places to return on risk seems enticing. 


Cinny ranked #4 vs. Left hand SP 
the wind is blowing out to center field from home plate
 #11 Ranked hitter friendly park. 

Sounds good, I need to be convinced that SF bats will show up tonight to jump on board the over. haven't decided whether or not to go with the 1st 5 or whole 9.


Reds TT 4.5     (+105)
over 8               (-120)
over 4.              (-120)
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#20
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:56:05 PM
I agree with you si1ly. This site is run like it was built 10 years ago (because it was). 

Adblock for Firefox\Chrome will block all the ads but this is more about how they are treating users. As I said in the other thread, the ONLY thing this site has going for it is a large userbase.... why you wouldn't do anything and everything to protect that, I don't know. 

Censoring users is another great way to drive them away which is what I have seen the mods do on a few occasions. 
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#21
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:00:42 PM
With you on this.

And the ads. Terrible.


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#22
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:03:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by r3coil:

I agree with you si1ly. This site is run like it was built 10 years ago (because it was). 

Adblock for Firefox\Chrome will block all the ads but this is more about how they are treating users. As I said in the other thread, the ONLY thing this site has going for it is a large userbase.... why you wouldn't do anything and everything to protect that, I don't know. 

Censoring users is another great way to drive them away which is what I have seen the mods do on a few occasions. 

Just got adblock....works great. 
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#23
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:27:39 PM
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#24
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:30:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roondog248:



Cinny ranked #4 vs. Left hand SP 
the wind is blowing out to center field from home plate
 #11 Ranked hitter friendly park. 

Sounds good, I need to be convinced that SF bats will show up tonight to jump on board the over. haven't decided whether or not to go with the 1st 5 or whole 9.


Reds TT 4.5     (+105)
over 8               (-120)
over 4.              (-120)

Agreed.  The Giants offensive struggles are the only concern for the over here.  I'm expecting the Reds to produce.
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#25
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:34:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by r3coil:

I agree with you si1ly. This site is run like it was built 10 years ago (because it was). 

Adblock for Firefox\Chrome will block all the ads but this is more about how they are treating users. As I said in the other thread, the ONLY thing this site has going for it is a large userbase.... why you wouldn't do anything and everything to protect that, I don't know. 

Censoring users is another great way to drive them away which is what I have seen the mods do on a few occasions. 

Prioritizing advertisers is a backwards strategy.  It's the users that come to this site that generate the advertisement revenue.  Without users, advertisements are useless.
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