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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5:35 EST - San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
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#1
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:45:03 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80  (49.0%)  -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P:  23-20  (53.2%)  +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P:  2-1  (66.6%)  +1.10u
'11-12 MLB:  130-86 (60.2%)  +38.27u
'12-13 NFL:  15-5  (75.0%)  +15.05u

'11-12 MLB-P:  0-0 (00.0%)  +0.00u


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#2
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:45:12 PM
5:35 EST - San Francisco Giants (+140)

Catching a great line here and it's gotten too high for me to ignore.  The Giants have their backs against the wall and despite playing on the road, the Reds generous ballpark might actually turn out to be the cure for their recent offensive woes.  The starting pitching match-up is dead even in my eyes.  Both guys have numbers representational of a solid #2/#3 man and they both finished the season on up-tics.  The difference here is offensive probability.  The Reds are a bottom tier offense against righties whereas the Giants are top tier against righties.  So the Reds have home park, a bullpen advantage, and maybe a slight advantage in starting pitching... while the Giants have a rather large advantage in offensive probability.  My model says this adds up to a pick'em game where the Giants are actually on the winning side of 50%.  I'm not sure the line should be quite this low, so given a conservative bump to Reds -115 / Giants +115.. the Giants still have 25 cents of value.  You won't find this much value often in the post season so I'll take my chances that the Giants find more life at the plate today than the Reds.

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#3
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:46:51 PM
 GL SILLY
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#4
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:47:34 PM
Happy to see you backing SF Giants today 
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#5
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:47:45 PM
bol
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#6
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:48:21 PM
BOL Bud like the play as well
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#7
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:48:32 PM
Nice line u got there
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#8
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:59:36 PM
AGREE
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#9
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:00:39 PM
liked that picked and also the under 7.5
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#10
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:08:10 PM
Good luck si1ly!
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#11
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:17:24 PM
Love the advertisement in the middle of your thread again.
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#12
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:18:37 PM
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#13
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:19:10 PM
I like it. 
Reds aren't so great facing right handed SP as they are vs. Lefties. 
My only worry is that despite having a better BA., the Giants haven't been hitting whatsoever...I was almost on the over...undecided.
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#14
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:19:38 PM
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#15
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:24:25 PM
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#16
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:30:11 PM
On the Giants at +172. BOL to us
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#17
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:30:25 PM

damn im tempted to bet but my luck is on the other side. but for shits and giggles..

stl (u).. thats just because alot are on sf.. haha

oak tonite and the (o).. i think there will be a show tonite in oakland.. they want a new staduim there bad!! but like i said im negative so what the hell do i know.. haha. good luck to all

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#18
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:34:31 PM
Haha i said stl. Lol. 
Cin and the under. 
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#19
Posted: 10/9/2012 5:43:17 PM
Goin over
 gl
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#20
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:32:37 PM
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#21
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:40:45 PM
On the SFG @ +125, +160 and +210.  GULP!
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#22
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:45:26 PM
im on giants too and feeling pretty nervous a run without a hit...
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#23
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:47:56 PM
LET'S GO GIANTS!!!!!
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#24
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:54:11 PM
I think San Fran would be smart to pull Vogelsong pretty quick here.  Even though he isn't allowing runs, he is skating on thin ice.  Having a real tough time finding the strike zone.
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#25
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:03:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMAG:

I think San Fran would be smart to pull Vogelsong pretty quick here.  Even though he isn't allowing runs, he is skating on thin ice.  Having a real tough time finding the strike zone.

Agreed.  No reason to try and save your bullpen in an elimination game.  All or nothing from here on out.
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