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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets
Lakerboy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#151
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:22:51 AM
Silly, you still think yankees are worth a play at -110? I'm 0-3 in this series, can't get a hold of these games between them...yankees playing horrendously on offense.
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#152
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:23:29 AM
Is it possible they get swept?
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#153
Posted: 10/18/2012 12:37:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lakerboy:

Is it possible they get swept?

Yes.. I don't think I'm playing this game.  This postseason has not offered much that I've been interested in.  A lot of sharp lines and bad match-ups.  Oh well, it's better to not play at all, then to lose on games that the house has the edge or simply can't be predicted accurately.  Yankees have the line value, but it's not the time to back them.
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#154
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:01:01 AM
just wanted to say thank you silly...you have gone far and beyond helping this forum and your work does not go unappreciated

thank you once again
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#155
Posted: 10/18/2012 9:23:30 AM
Thursday's game up.  No change to the Yankees/Tigers sheet.
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#156
Posted: 10/18/2012 10:19:20 AM
Si1ly appreciate your work. Having a problem accessing the sheet, what are you thoughts on SF/Cards tonight?
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#157
Posted: 10/18/2012 10:24:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gambler1d:

Si1ly appreciate your work. Having a problem accessing the sheet, what are you thoughts on SF/Cards tonight?

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd-be68XCvUzAtVTFiOVFXaGs/edit

Direct link^


Lean Cardinals
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#158
Posted: 10/18/2012 1:38:14 PM
Do you find it strange that the Tigers are gonna be favored over either NL team? Am i crazy to think that either NL should be favored.
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#159
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:22:36 PM
Will you have time to post game 5 ?
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#160
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:28:08 PM
Cards will be projected close to -200 in Silly's breakdown im guessing
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#161
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:39:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Cards will be projected close to -200 in Silly's breakdown im guessing

Hehehe not quite.  The Giants are still pretty good offensively against righties.  Good enough to keep them in it.  -170 was the result.  Still some value on the Cards, but not that much.  I wish I could find 45 cents of value this postseason!  I've hated almost every game.  After the Tigers blew a 3 run lead in the bottom of the 9th for my second wager I was just turned off from things.
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#162
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:49:27 PM
Si1ly, Any thoughts on over/under ?
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#163
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:50:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by googotts:

Si1ly, Any thoughts on over/under ?

Lean over full game.
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#164
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:55:43 PM

rats.. im just looking for a reason to pull the trigger on the Cards. thanks for running it for us tho Silly!  

yep ..postseason is very tough imo.  My only advice about the sheets, is to subtract at least 1 run off the top of your projected total for it being playoff game and the way pitchers are managed differ from reg season.  Seems that is what the linesmakers have been doing also.

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#165
Posted: 10/19/2012 5:56:38 PM
 thanks
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#166
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:01:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

rats.. im just looking for a reason to pull the trigger on the Cards. thanks for running it for us tho Silly!  

yep ..postseason is very tough imo.  My only advice about the sheets, is to subtract at least 1 run off the top of your projected total for it being playoff game and the way pitchers are managed differ from reg season.  Seems that is what the linesmakers have been doing also.


Agreed.  Runs are much tougher to come by in the postseason.  Weather is the biggest factor for this.  I prefer not to adjust the output though and just make those notes myself on a game-by-game basis.  Consistency in the model is what makes the sheets so useful as a comparative tool.
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#167
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:11:19 PM
Si1ly do you think SF and the under have value? Seems that public on STL and over
Posted using a mobile device.
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#168
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:34:21 PM
Gonna lock in the same play as yesterday 

Cards RL & Over

GL Everyone
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#169
Posted: 10/19/2012 6:41:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Agreed.  Runs are much tougher to come by in the postseason.  Weather is the biggest factor for this.  I prefer not to adjust the output though and just make those notes myself on a game-by-game basis.  Consistency in the model is what makes the sheets so useful as a comparative tool.
  wasn't suggesting that you actually change you're projection on the sheet. Just saying that the rest of us should keep that in mind when adjusting on our own
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#170
Posted: 10/21/2012 9:52:05 AM

I know its NFL sunday today but..

 

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#171
Posted: 10/21/2012 9:56:00 AM
forgot that Carp may not have enough data though.. not sure :/
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#172
Posted: 10/21/2012 10:19:10 AM
ehh.. no need to run it really.  Lines look tight again tonight as usual
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#173
Posted: 10/22/2012 5:27:33 PM
I would imagine we could just look at game 3's sheet and would be pretty much looking at the same stats for tonight. 

Cards beat SF with Cain as Sp   3-1 on 10/17/12
                                                       8-2 on  8/6/12
but that was in St. Louis.  


I'm leaning cards tonight, but am gonna look into it further.

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#174
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:02:53 AM
World Series Game 1 is up

Verlander is way over valued with the Tigers going up against a lefty starter at home.  How anyone can take the Tigers in game one at this price is beyond me - especially after the Tigers just had to wait all this time between games.  It's Giants or no play in game one.  Total looks sharp as a tack.
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#175
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:22:04 AM
What do you think about the series thou?
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