Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Postseason - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/6/2012 11:53:04 AM


COPY & PASTE THE URL BELOW:

Primary
https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvcThxV0dtXzBENlE/edit


Mirror 1
https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvZmMyd0J2MzUzd3M/edit






5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:00:37 PM
tinfoils PM tinfoils
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:40:04 PM
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:45:34 PM
vegaslover PM vegaslover
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:54:18 PM
Sill, you playing the DET Over?
vegaslover PM vegaslover
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:54:46 PM

Also, really like OAK, thoughts?  I know your sheet disagrees.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/6/2012 12:58:50 PM
Well, my sheet shows that Oakland game is at fair value.  I think Vegas has set very tight lines on both sides today.  Slight lean to the Giants because Cinci has such a poor offense against righties.  Even though the model shows some value on the Oakland over.. with both bullpens at full disposal and Verlander capable of going 8 IP without blinking.. I think the 7.5 line is pretty reasonable.  I'm laying off this game entirely.  If I made a play today, it would be on the Giants, but even that line is tough.  There will be better opportunities in the coming weeks.
ShadowWarrior PM ShadowWarrior
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:04:32 PM
Thank you Si1ly.
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:23:07 PM
RLeith35 PM RLeith35
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:27:48 PM
Si i ly, I tried to copy & paste both & said folder is empty? Am i doing something wrong?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:34:29 PM
I only have the Play-In games uploaded.  I'll be adding games to the appropriate folder as the playoffs progress.  Since Covers removed the hyperlink feature, I'll just keep this thread active and I'll have the rest of the playoffs posted in the subfolders.  Feel free to bookmark one of the two links (they will both contain the same information).
roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/6/2012 3:56:17 PM
AWESOME !!

coachwbb PM coachwbb
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Posted: 10/6/2012 4:30:50 PM
Thanks si1ly....I don't post much but really enjoy reading your sheets and thoughts.  No accounting for a team playing very well right now (A's)?  Good luck.
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Posted: 10/6/2012 4:33:46 PM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/6/2012 5:05:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coachwbb:

Thanks si1ly....I don't post much but really enjoy reading your sheets and thoughts.  No accounting for a team playing very well right now (A's)?  Good luck.

The models factor play over the last 30 days... but it has minimal impact on the result.  I have the model weighted heavily towards full season data.  I've found the results to be more accurate the larger the sample size.  I think the lines tonight are at fair value.. books got these ones nailed.
keepitstrict PM keepitstrict
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Posted: 10/6/2012 5:08:14 PM
roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/6/2012 5:40:41 PM
know it was 3 months ago but on 6/28 & 6/29 
5 runs were scored on cain 2 being homers 
3 runs were scored on cueto in 7 innings. 

do you think this data can be factored into this game?
telemaco22 PM telemaco22
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Posted: 10/6/2012 5:59:35 PM

so oaklan is the play?

roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:05:18 PM
I placed a small wager on oakland RL
telemaco22 PM telemaco22
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:09:13 PM

sorry siil but i check in the doc web site and say the the folder are empty. so what is the play in oaklan-detroit game.

roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:09:55 PM
Holy garbage.. CoCo Crisp HomeRun   
roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/6/2012 6:13:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by telemaco22:

sorry siil but i check in the doc web site and say the the folder are empty. so what is the play in oaklan-detroit game.


Si1ly posted his thoughts in post #7 

and the folder is Play-In Games which is in post #11
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/7/2012 1:06:53 PM
Today's games updated and I moved yesterday's games to the proper folder.  

Don't know where my head was putting them in the play-in games.  


Today I like the Cardinals and the Reds.
roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/7/2012 1:31:24 PM
roondog248 PM roondog248
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Posted: 10/7/2012 1:32:22 PM
I feel pretty good about backing Wainwright...espically at an EV moneline
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