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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tremendous Value With Cardinals +160 Today
Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:39:35 AM

I've hashed this out in a couple other threads. Here are my thoughts:

I'm shocked at the amount of people who want to lay the chalk with the Braves today.

No one feels this one is inflated at all? Check out Lohse's lines on the road... +100 to Jordan Zimmermann, +110 to Roy Halladay. Now he's +160 to Kris Medlen? You're telling me Medlen would be laying -125 or -130 road chalk if this game were in STL? Medlen was only laying -135 to the shitty Marlins not too long ago!

I mentioned Lohse was +100 on the road against Zimmermann... he also closed -115 at home against Zimmermann in his final few starts. So ask yourself, realistically, what would Medlen be at home against Zimmermann and the Nats? Maybe -130? Hell, he only closed -135 against the Nats #4 starter (Ross Detwiler). 

I mean, I get the fact that Medlen is on a tremendous roll. The Braves simply don't lose with him on the mound. But to me this one is just simply over-inflated because of this. I had this line capped at ATL -135/+125. No idea what the hell Medlen is doing laying this kind of chalk against Lohse, but it's weird garbage like this that keeps me away from betting MLB playoffs. I happen to think there is a ridiculous amount of value on Lohse today at +160. This line is absolutely nuts to me but again, this is why I don't bet the playoffs... too many weird lines being thrown out. Maybe I'm just underestimating the power of home field advantage in the playoffs.

BOL to both Braves and Cards backers though... should be a great game.

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#2
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:41:49 AM
quit livin in the past - ITS HERE AND NOW - CHIPPERS TIME TONIGHT
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Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/5/2012 11:43:13 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LEBRONNN:

quit livin in the past - ITS HERE AND NOW - CHIPPERS TIME TONIGHT

Great analysis...

Sometimes I wonder why I waste my time here. There's a few good posters but you have to weed through all the bullshit to get to it.

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#4
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:44:54 AM
Couldn't believe when I saw it.  Was thinking Tone better be all over this.  Glad to see you are.  Cards haven't been this big of a dog since the first game of the season.  Think you should reconsider not putting some action on it.  Think you can find some value in most games because more people place wagers on the playoffs that don't normally play during the season.  
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Posted: 10/5/2012 11:46:23 AM

I hear you, Tone10.  I'm dealing with an idiot posting in my thread right now.  People just don't want to hear another person's opinion. 

Nevertheless, BOL to you.  I like STL myself. 

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#6
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:46:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Great analysis...

Sometimes I wonder why I waste my time here. There's a few good posters but you have to weed through all the bullshit to get to it.


Would you expect anything less from a LeBron lover?  Actually love these type of guys because they are fade material over the long haul.
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#7
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:48:16 AM

why dont you bet the playoffs? i believe that the playoffs are the best time to bet as teams that are overvalued because of easy divisional wins(reds) are easier to cap and also that the best teams generally always win a five game series both in mlb and nba.

agree that the braves are overvalued today but they do have the better bp if either lohse or medlin get hit early.

 

 

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Posted: 10/5/2012 11:49:45 AM
BTW, this is Kris Medlen's first postseason game.  Let's see if he can handle the jitters.  ATL fans will be supporting him large today. 
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#9
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:51:02 AM
Yeah Tone, when I saw that early number, all I could think that bettors would jump at the chance to take the defending world champs and a not too shabby Kyle Lohse, bringing that line down closer to where you had it capped.  Oddly enough that isn't happening and the line continues to climb.  Not touching it as of right now, but if it goes any higher I'm going to have to play a little something, other than the total.   BOL and I've enjoyed reading your stuff this season.
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#10
Posted: 10/5/2012 11:57:20 AM
From a value standpoint you make sense regardless of todays outcome.Betting heavy chalk in games like this is an easy way to destroy a bankroll.

Good luck



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#11
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:01:08 PM
Never any VALUE in a loser

Braves are money
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#12
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:01:48 PM
Tone
hard to pass a line like this in a 1 game playoff, and the champs are still the champs till they get beat
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#13
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:03:46 PM
Value or sucker we all will find out later today.

A defending champion with their ace vs a hot pitcher who has beat nobody but crappy teams and he has to lay -160s ? Somebody must know something. I may be wrong but that is how I see it. I will take the Braves ( my team ) as I think this is sucker line to take StL. IMO.

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#14
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:06:15 PM
I'M A BIG BIG BRAVES FAN AND I CAN'T LAY THAT KINDA OF MONEY ON THE BRAVES IN THIS GAME. I TOOK UNDER 7 IF I HAD TO BET THE GAME STRAIGHT IT WOULD BE STL PLUS THE BIG MONEY.
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Posted: 10/5/2012 12:07:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by football_007:

Value or sucker we all will find out later today.

A defending champion with their ace vs a hot pitcher who has beat nobody but crappy teams and he has to lay -160s ? Somebody must know something. I may be wrong but that is how I see it. I will take the Braves ( my team ) as I think this is sucker line to take StL. IMO.

That's the thing... why is this line so high. It almost does feel like a sucker bet to get people to jump on STL, but then all I see are mostly Braves backers.

I don't know, there's just too much uncertainty and volatiltiy in the playoffs. Just don't ever feel comfortable betting it. I do happen to think the lines on all the other three opening games are pretty much currently spot on (though I did really like the opening -105 line on the Giants as well. It has since risen to -120).

Regardless, it's good to see some intelligent, informed discussion on this game (outside of post #2 obviously).

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#16
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:09:57 PM
If you are any kind of an experienced gambler, you would know that only a fool would lay that much chalk. All things being equal, I would love to take Atlanta, but you are absolutely correct, there's simply no value. It's either St.Louis or something small on a total that also could go either way. 
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#17
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:10:09 PM
LET IT RIP!!!!!!
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Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#18
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:11:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 222bad:

Yeah Tone, when I saw that early number, all I could think that bettors would jump at the chance to take the defending world champs and a not too shabby Kyle Lohse, bringing that line down closer to where you had it capped.  Oddly enough that isn't happening and the line continues to climb.  Not touching it as of right now, but if it goes any higher I'm going to have to play a little something, other than the total.   BOL and I've enjoyed reading your stuff this season.

Thanks, buddy. I'm with you. I can't figure it out, and the puzzling thing is the line has been climbing since the open, not going down.

I feel confident in my projections, but I also respect the line movement at sharp books like Pinnacle. Public money isn't moving those lines, those are some heavy hitters that are hitting the Braves. Pinny is respecting those heavy hitters and adjusted the line towards ATL accordingly.

Now, it will be interesting to see if those sharps are just inching the line higher and higher to get the number they want before laying the wood to the Cards right before first pitch. The old Billy Walters move, so to speak.

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#19
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:12:34 PM

I actually think that Medlen probably should be favored like this......he basically doesn't give up any runs......the Braves haven't lost with him on the hill in ages. 23 starts becomes a pretty significant trend (and a large part of that streak is because he has been brilliant). Some would argue betting on a 23 game winning streak is smart money......

I won't be betting Atlanta and certainly understand why people would play the Cards at the number but I won't be.

Lohse won't be in St Louis next year.....this could be his last start for the Cards. If they lose, it will be........not sure if that means anything but it's out there.

 

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#20
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:12:49 PM
Tone you're right lots of value with the cards today line doesn't make any sense. That's what made me take a double look, I think it's a Vegas head fake wanting money on the cards. What are your thoughts?
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Tone10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/5/2012 12:15:35 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by musocky:

Tone you're right lots of value with the cards today line doesn't make any sense. That's what made me take a double look, I think it's a Vegas head fake wanting money on the cards. What are your thoughts?

I don't know... it's really such a weird line. I mean, this is the type of line I would be ALL over in the regular season, but playoff baseball is an entirely different animal.

I elaborated a bit in post #15 and #18.

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#22
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:15:39 PM
What's if it's a spin move instead of a head fake?
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#23
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:19:18 PM
BOL
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Posted: 10/5/2012 12:22:16 PM
It could be a spin move but what if its a triple deek to the 5 hole?
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#25
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:30:09 PM
i like the cards tonight as well
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