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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS... RD.1 OCT 5-12
campjenkins send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:12:20 PM
McShady/Semper...thanks for chiming in with your plays.  I am pulling for you guys and hope that Atlanta has more hits, Cardinals/Braves stays UNDER 6.5...just in the end hope that the Cardinals score more runs.  

Just submitted Cardinals ML (+162)...hate that I'm on the opposite side of Angle/Chips/etc.  BOL to all  

And, if the Cardinals lose, I'll definitely be back to hop on the Orioles ML bandwagon in the nightcap.  Surely, one of the road dogs is going to win tonight!  Who's with me!  So, you're saying there's a chance!  

Camp out for now, fellas  
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#27
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:20:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by awdamaddix:



Speak of that, are you guys still playing 2h porky system? Didn't hit the over 27 2h utah game. And last sunday, that system got me murdered.

The only game that qualified for me was the Rams 2H Under. I Don't play alot of CFB 2h's. unless its 2 top 25 teams
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#28
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:24:17 PM
My Braves prop is for $300 btw...
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#29
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:01:13 PM
Awdamaddix:  Ran all the 2H numbers for 3 years past data...the O/U on that system is right around 50% (+/- 5%) no matter how you slice it.  My take is no one can predict T/O's & ST TDs and so it's a coin toss every game.

I have noticed a trend on the team. Did this in college & pros, been playing it for 2 weeks & it's hitting nicely:

1H Score Diff - Game Spread + 2H Spread >= 19

eg. UNC/Idaho - 45/0 @ Half, UNC -27 game spread, UNC -11 2H Spread.    45 - 27 - (-11) = 29.  Bet UNC...Winner!(21-0 2H)

(reverse the signs on the spreads if the dog is winning at half)

Both leagues hitting close to 70%.   Problem is, the scenario happens about 17 times a season in Pros, and about 75 in college (and college is a PIA to time those 2H bets!!) - so you'll most likely want other action.

Also been playing Angle's 2T Parlay system.  It hits, but it's a SLOW grind!  About 3 games a weekend.  65% hit rate on games and at 60% you break even - so you're pulling  about a 17% ROI...but it's better than Wall St! :)


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#30
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:09:07 PM
QUOTENeed help from a fellow Who.

Are you saying that if the total number arrived at using the formula you posted is > than 19 then play 2H over? 

Originally Posted by schiman:

Awdamaddix:  Ran all the 2H numbers for 3 years past data...the O/U on that system is right around 50% (+/- 5%) no matter how you slice it.  My take is no one can predict T/O's & ST TDs and so it's a coin toss every game.

I have noticed a trend on the team. Did this in college & pros, been playing it for 2 weeks & it's hitting nicely:

1H Score Diff - Game Spread + 2H Spread >= 19

eg. UNC/Idaho - 45/0 @ Half, UNC -27 game spread, UNC -11 2H Spread.    45 - 27 - (-11) = 29.  Bet UNC...Winner!(21-0 2H)

(reverse the signs on the spreads if the dog is winning at half)

Both leagues hitting close to 70%.   Problem is, the scenario happens about 17 times a season in Pros, and about 75 in college (and college is a PIA to time those 2H bets!!) - so you'll most likely want other action.

Also been playing Angle's 2T Parlay system.  It hits, but it's a SLOW grind!  About 3 games a weekend.  65% hit rate on games and at 60% you break even - so you're pulling  about a 17% ROI...but it's better than Wall St! :)



Thanks,

OD
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#31
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:11:03 PM
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#32
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:15:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Hey Angle wins in Football last night!


I hope u tailed on those McShady. I wish I would have parlayed them! The under is now 4-0 on Thurs nite NFL and has been good for several years now. The same thing for ESPN feature game home dog on Thurs nite. That is now 2-0. I may make these 2 a standing 2-teamer for awhile.

Camp, good luck with the Cards. My Atl-1.5 play is strictly based on Medlen's RL wins during regular season, but this is the playoffs and anything can happen.
 
Your stategy sounds good to win one dog and make money.

Texas is desperate. Not alot of positive vibe due to recent slump and much pressure after blowing division. They are COUNTING on Darvish. Will the pressure get to HIM?

Thx Semper for the plays. My book doesn't have the prop that McShady is playing, darn it!

Showalter would like nothing more than to stick it to his former team that saddled him I believe with the A-ROD fiasco.

Nolan Ryan has been QUIET. The heat is on, but the weather will be cool tonight.
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#33
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:22:54 PM
Schiman. Can accept my friend request. I some formula question for ya. Thx
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#34
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:36:55 PM
Hey guys - busy week so I've been late on my NFL work. Here it is. Last week went 5-4-1 ATS and 2-0 SU; season is 21-10-2 ATS.

Week 5:
Atlanta -3
Pittsburgh -3
Minnesota -5.5 (i don't play the Vikes as they're my team)
Seattle +3
Chicago -4.5
Denver +7
San Diego +3
Atl @ Was Over 50
Chi @ J'ville Over 41
Posted using a mobile device.
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#35
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:43:38 PM
Thanks for sharing that Bettingbrothers . That is a hell of an ATS record so far .
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#36
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:49:53 PM
Thx BB. Ill compare them to what I have. In the NFL, I have 3 OVERS im tracking....

Eagles@Steelers
Seahawks@Panthers
Browns@Giants
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#37
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:56:55 PM
Thanks Bettingbrothers, I hope u can keep up the nice record!

McShady, I just checked your sheet and I already had Utah St...
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#38
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:07:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

Thanks Bettingbrothers, I hope u can keep up the nice record!

McShady, I just checked your sheet and I already had Utah St...

Thats because you are a visionary and an opportunist :)
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#39
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:18:50 PM
I'm also going with Utah St under 46 tonite. Plus 2 teamer with Utah St +7 and under 45.5.

I bought straight bets to +8 and under 46. 2 units straight, 1 on parlay.
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#40
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:58:07 PM
As Semper says there is some fight in the fighting Showalters, and most of the pressure is on Texas. The public is all over them as well since Balt has not seen the mighty Darvish. You can bet Buck will have them ready!

If Texas makes an error, Darvish gives up too many walks, etc... The old "here we go again" sinking feeling in the pit of the stomach will set in. Balt will be like a hungry lion ready to pounce on their prey at the first sign of weakness.

The only question is, will Texas light up Sanders, build confidence and play their game?

I'm going with the value play on the Fighting Showalters for the upset! Texas has been lying in their own filth for over a week now. They didn't clean up their act in Oakland and I don't think they can just flip a switch and get it together tonight. The fans have been all over Hamilton and don't care if he comes back or not! He might even regress.

I can see Texas winning easily, but with such large juice laying the -1.5 sounds like a sure public play.

So my play is Balt +185 for 1 unit and 2 units on Balt +1.5.

Baltimore has one hell of a bullpen and I think it will be close, then of course, I could be wrong!!!
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#41
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:03:16 PM
Wish I would have gotten Balt+1.5 earlier. It has jumped 20 cents against me and is now more juicy. Is this public money or sharp money? I hope it's sharp waiting for the public to pound Texas and then come back on the +1.5. Wow.

I also tailed Semper on the F5 plays. Let's get them all!
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#42
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:06:08 PM
Angle out, GL to all!
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#43
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:19:49 PM
This Texas O's game is interesting to me because of the 95 cent fav and the over under at 9. Are they saying 6-3 rangers or are they saying 5-4 O's. IMO it is interesting to have such a large fav with a high o/u. Any input would be appreciated. Looking at this it's telling me some long balls tonite in Texas.
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#44
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:31:09 PM
UTAH STATE +7 and PITT +2...like both dogs,,,,there's a suprise!!! 
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#45
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:34:36 PM
DOGS NEVER WIN...GET OUTTA HERE WITH garbage 
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#46
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:37:23 PM
SHADY....THAT IS GREAT!!!
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#47
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:40:48 PM
I have both totals being real close to the # , lean on both UNDERS



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#48
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:10:08 PM

I'm playing the Rangers RL because the humiliation they are feeling is the kind of thing that leads certain teams to explode...they're either gonna get beat easily or win easily-if they get ahead early, Hamilton and all will open up and all these O's relievers aren't top flight pitchers-plus playoff pressure...

This is a situational/emotional play-Rangers RL and I get Darvish who they haven't seen and if he gets by the first 2 innings, forget it...GL

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#49
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:12:23 PM
I like ATL because of Medlin but also who beat out the Braves last year, Jones last game and the Cards have been average the last 6 weeks and the Braves will be more motivated...definitely ML and half my money on the RL...GL, Again-emotional, situational plays like fading the Angels Tuesday and Wed..we're all humans...
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#50
Posted: 10/5/2012 5:57:40 PM
I took Texas +1.5 for -115. BOL everybody!
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