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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: CHASE THE PLAYOFFS... RD.1 OCT 5-12
McShady send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/9/2012 11:50:03 AM
I like the Tigers and trying to pick apart the Reds Total. Wont have any Chases till next rd, but will be doing some parlays & props. 
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Posted: 10/9/2012 11:53:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Redhill70:

ok.  i was going to play a teaser with both teams and o/u.  That would have hit in the game last night i believe.  Thought maybe newfie did that.


His main play was Jets ATS then he bets them a couple different ways to increase his odds
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Posted: 10/9/2012 11:57:01 AM
Also looking at PHILLIPS (-115) vs POSEY on Total Bases
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:06:53 PM
Thoughts on chasing the Giants today?  Bailey 5.16 ERA at home v Vogelsong 3.87 away.


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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:14:06 PM
Hey Guys, congrats to all on yesterday. You guys are awesome. Question for ,McShady, Semper, or anyone, doesn't the Cinci chase sound good? I think riceboi commented on this. I don't see SF taking the next 3. Is it the price that would deter you from chasing? Just curious. Thanks.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:23:35 PM
My thoughts are the Giants win tonight. 


And I one of my many rules is I NEVER pay over -120 and Riceboi NEVER pays under -120. Haha
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:24:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Also looking at PHILLIPS (-115) vs POSEY on Total Bases

Why would my book pair up a guy hitting .500 vs a guy hitting .000???

I smell fish in da water...
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campjenkins send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:42:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mjnorman59:

Thoughts on chasing the Giants today?  Bailey 5.16 ERA at home v Vogelsong 3.87 away.



Hey mjnorman59,

I'm clearly in the minority, but I kinda like the Giants ML today. 

Anybody else see value in the Giants (+129) trying to avoid the sweep?  

I realize the Giants bats are ice cold and they've got to be completely demoralized after getting smoked in both games in San Francisco.  While the Reds line-up is now firing on all cylinders, and Homer Bailey has been lights out good his previous two starts (including a no-hitter).  Not to mention, that huge advantage the Reds bullpen enjoys in this series.

But, in a weird way, that's exactly why I like the Giants to win today.  San Francisco is the desperate team...just not sure Cincinnati will feel the urgency today after coming home fat and happy up 2-0.  

And, if the Giants bats are ever going to come alive, it's today against Bailey in Cincinnati's hitters park.  And, maybe Vogelsong will find the magic once again when least expected and hold the Reds in check.  

Giants ML...who's with me!  
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:49:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

My thoughts are the Giants win tonight. 


And I one of my many rules is I NEVER pay over -120 and Riceboi NEVER pays under -120. Haha

Giants ML 


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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:49:28 PM
I support ya cj on the Giants. Im just not will to put $1k on it for a G3, thats why I bought out yesterday. 
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Posted: 10/9/2012 3:55:08 PM
Any Total plays today?

I have to play my A's today, I have too. They are at home and even though they are young, they show that they can put up a fight. The pitching has been strong, they just need to get their bats on the ball and play their type of game.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:01:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

I support ya cj on the Giants. Im just not will to put $1k on it for a G3, thats why I bought out yesterday. 

Completely understand, McShady.  Again, great call yesterday on Nats/Cards OVER.  Twas' a thing of beauty. 

I just submitted Giants ML (+129).  BOL tonight, fellas  
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:03:15 PM
Can the A's get 4 today. May play this....

2TP +200
Reds TT un4.5
A's TT ov3.5
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:04:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

My thoughts are the Giants win tonight. 


And I one of my many rules is I NEVER pay over -120 and Riceboi NEVER pays under -120. Haha



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nase send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:05:29 PM
Thanks Shady. I'm trying to be disciplined on not paying the juice. You guys have more than proved that you don't have to.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:05:29 PM
Great night guys. Thx Shady for Cards over even though I bet before noon central before you flipped the coin! Thx Shawty you locked in early so I went with it!

Thx randogsac for the Cards! (also early)

My angle play on Jets same as Newfie's play!
I wish you would have played it Shawty, I had my doubts but I held my nose just like I did on them against SF but won this time. Remember that Angle, bet on any NFL team that loses ATS by 25 points or more. Next week I believe that will be Buffalo and Jax (whenever their next game is, I don't have schedule in front of me)
I didn't see Semper's post but I knew he was chasing Baltimore!

Today I am on Oakland ML and Semper's under F5 in same game. I will tail Campjenkins on SF. Both teams dogs decent dogs avoiding sweep you would think maybe smaller dogs?

What are the plays for you today McShady?




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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:10:40 PM
Correction, SF small dog and Oak relatively small fave to avoid sweep.

No pressure on Cincy, I'll take SF.

Mucho pressure on Oakland, but look what they did to Texas! I would have expected them to be around -160 at home to avoid sweep. I've already locked in at -132.
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:13:07 PM
Angle - have you had any luck lately w your CFB parlays w heavy faves laying the points and the over combo'ing it w the heavy dogs taking the points and the under? (I can't remember what your exact guidelines were for these bets, but thought it was an intriguing play).
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:17:28 PM
I'm in on Giants ML, just thinking after the shutout they might be a bit more motivated today.  Also, with Cuerto hurt, they may have a small light to do something in this series.

Looking back at the season, Giants have scored in the first inning 40.7% of the time on the road and Reds 35.8%.

Giants score first on road 50/81 = 61.7%
Reds score first at home 41/81 = 50.6%

Last meeting between Vogel and Bailey was in April with a 6-5 Giants win.

Not sure if it all adds up but I am taking the Giants to score first, F5 and ML.


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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:17:39 PM
@Riceboi

GL on ur ALL IN!!!!
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:23:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

Can the A's get 4 today. May play this....

2TP +200
Reds TT un4.5
A's TT ov3.5


So would you take over 6.5 on this game then?

Also O or U 7.5 on the Giants/Reds game?
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:29:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

Correction, SF small dog and Oak relatively small fave to avoid sweep.

No pressure on Cincy, I'll take SF.

Mucho pressure on Oakland, but look what they did to Texas! I would have expected them to be around -160 at home to avoid sweep. I've already locked in at -132.

Angle...congrats on your Jets play last night.  Well done, indeed.  

Also, glad to see you on the Giants ML today, as well.  I really like the Giants in this spot against Bailey.  Hopefully, the Giants bats wake up out of their slumber,  Vogelsong finds his early season form, and it pans out for us.  If the Giants win, that's it for me tonight.  

However, if the Reds do happen to beat the Giants and finish off the sweep, I'll definitely be tailing you on the A's ML in the nightcap.  Don't believe we'll see consecutive sweeps on the same day based on these match-ups.

Here's to a great night, Chasers!  Camp out for now   
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McShady send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:30:22 PM
Found my Prop for Giants/Astros...

Team to score 1st - LOSES +175    200 / 350
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Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:32:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McShady:

@Riceboi

GL on ur ALL IN!!!!


thanks!
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Posted: 10/9/2012 4:36:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jinboston2000:

Angle - have you had any luck lately w your CFB parlays w heavy faves laying the points and the over combo'ing it w the heavy dogs taking the points and the under? (I can't remember what your exact guidelines were for these bets, but thought it was an intriguing play).


After a slow start I won 4.8 units on Saturday. I haven't checked but only up around 3 for season. Worst season I can remember. Lost a lot of games by one on total or big fave shutting out the dog and staying under.

These plays don't come as often this late in the season and may get harder to hit, but I've been doing this at least 4 years with a profit so I'm going to continue.

System is, divide spread by total. Any game 35% or higher, bet a pair of 2 team parlays on the same game. One parlay is fave/over and the other is dog/under. Last week all 3 winners were fave/over but the dog/unders were hitting more often previously.

Most books don't allow such a high percentage for parlay and some will allow one parlay but not the other so you have to use 2 books.

This year, like I said has not been that great, but still a small profit. If I had stayed with these only and avoided all the other NCAA action I would have been better off. As the season wears on there seems to be fewer and fewer of these plays. It does make it nice to have fewer plays and not have to worry about all the other games on Saturday!
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