YTD 246-247 +42.97
CLV (Closing Line Value): +56.70
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +23.01
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Pretty good day on yesterday's large card. Was able to cash with the Dodgers, Nationals, Mets, and Rockies and got good numbers on all of those. Lost a close one with the Royals and a not-so-close one with the Diamondbacks. Picked up +2.35 units.
Three plays today, all bet at opening BetOnline numbers and posted in my Wednesday thread.
Thursday 9/27
957 Arizona Diamondbacks +110
967 Oakland Athletics +205
972 Toronto Blue Jays +140
Barry Zito always seems to get too much respect on opening lines. Truth of the matter is that he's exceedingly mediocre, and his closing lines reflect that. Some of the shine has worn off Patrick Corbin... his lines are getting softer, but we're not at the point where he should be power-rated equally with Zito. And especially considering two starts ago he closed -120/+110 at home against Vogelsong. Vogelsong is the guy he's more closely power-rated with, so the -120/+110 opener is something I would expect if Vogelsong were on the mound for the Giants, not Zito. +110 is a good number here for the D-Backs in my opinion.
I almost never get involved in games that are lined in the -200's. Too much volatility for my liking. But this one is just silly. A's at +205 today? Really? Blackley closed +150 @ Ivan Nova and the Yankees his last start, why should he be +205 today @ Harrison and the Rangers? Obviously Harrison has the higher power-rating than Nova, but that's just way too big of a gap. I personally had this lined TEX -180/+170, at +205 I just had to take a shot with the A's.
Like the number with Morrow as a home dog tonight. Using both Morrow's and Nova's last starts, in both instances I came to a projected line of NYY -125/+115. Morrow +170 @ Matt Moore (making him around +120 at home vs. Moore), and Nova -160 vs. Blackley (making him around -120 @ Blackley). I've got Moore about 5 cents better than Nova, and Blackley about 5 cents better than Morrow, so in both cases, again, I've got NYY tabbed at around -125/+115. -150/+140 was probably inflated due to the current perceptions of these teams, currently seeing a more logical NYY -130 at Pinnacle right now.
Good luck today everybody.
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