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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Professor524 Offical Thread
Professor524 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#101
Posted: 10/20/2012 6:26:21 PM
Sun Oct 21st: All prices / spreads are from Pinnacle @ Oct 20, 6:19 EST.

Worked a while this week on my NFL picks. Have done fairly well this season 4/6 so hopefully this continues. This is not my forte but I am showing profit so I will post them.

NFL:
IND ml @ 1.83 
GB -4.5 @ 1.90 (bought half pt from Pinny)
Was NYG Over 51 @ 1.91
NYJ NE Over 47 @ 1.92
NO Saints ml @ 1.88

MLB:

Going with STL money line. Yes Giants have all the momentum but looking at the math and statistics, Carpenter still has a much better record vs. Giants then Vogs does vs. Cards. I'll take Cards Bullpen as well over Giants. I believe the true lines to be Giants 1.95 and STL 2.00 so I will take the extra value as well on STL. 

STL ml @ 2.10 

GL



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#102
Posted: 10/20/2012 8:06:50 PM

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5t4r5align
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
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#103
Posted: 10/20/2012 9:02:20 PM
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#104
Posted: 10/20/2012 10:59:19 PM
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#105
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:07:18 AM
NFL:
IND ml @ 1.83 - WIN +0.83 Units profit
GB -4.5 @ 1.90 - WIN +0.90 Units profit
Was NYG Over 51 @ 1.91 - Loss of 1 unit
NYJ NE Over 47 @ 1.92 - WIN 0.92 units profit
NO Saints ml @ 1.88 - WIN 0.88 units profit

MLB:
STL ml @ 2.10 - loss of 1 unit


4/6, overall, profitable nonetheless, +1.53 units profit overall today

OVERALL: +23.44 UNITS, +$2344
29/49 Singles - 59.2%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
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#106
Posted: 10/22/2012 1:11:04 AM
Mon Oct 22:

MLB:
Going with Kyle @ 2.32:1 (+132) Cards close it out, this is a coin flip, but I will take the extra 30 cents. No way this is anywhere close to the true line. Not saying STL is a lock, but you have to look at the big picture and take the longterm +EV.

NFL:
Take the OVER 47 @ 2.00 (+100) DET  CHI 

*All prices from Pinnacle as of 1:10AM EST Mon Oct 22, 1 unit each

GL
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#107
Posted: 10/22/2012 12:38:11 PM
Gluk Prof. Nice year so far
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#108
Posted: 10/23/2012 5:34:58 AM
Good morning guys. Off to work soon. Just wanted to update.

0/2, STL loss, Over 47 loss

OVERALL: +21.44 UNITS, +$2144
29/51 Singles - 56.8%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100% 

Bad night, lost both. Not only did I lose but I was way off. Something that concerns me a lot more. Looking more closely at the NFL game there were 7 blow red zone plays at least. Tons of turnovers and botched plays. Even a blocked FG. So this game could have hit the over, just everything seemed to go wrong.

More concerned about the 9-0 Giants game. Never have I seen a team like St. Louis just roll over and take it. I mean they just gave up after game 5. It was horrible to watch. I give the Giants tons of credit but surely SOME sort of fight to defend your title.

In anycase, ony game I am playing Tuesday is KHL.

Tues Oct 23:  CSKA Moscow -0.5 @1.92

Just remember it's a marathon, not a sprint. No matter how hot someone is, don't start increasing your bet sizes and bet more then you should (2-4%). Stay focused.

Goodluck guys.
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#109
Posted: 10/23/2012 6:36:22 PM
Tues Oct 23:  CSKA Moscow -0.5 @1.92 - WIN +0.92 units profit

Looks like going to have to focus more on KHL with no NHL anytime soon. 

OVERALL: +22.36 UNITS, +$2236
30/52 Singles - 57.7%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100% 
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#110
Posted: 10/23/2012 10:15:29 PM
Wed Oct 24: 

KHL Hockey
Dynamo Moscow -0.5 @ 2.0 (+100)
Magnitogorsk -0.5 @ 1.80 (-127)



MLB:
Tigers Run line @ 2.00 (+100)

Looking at the matchups, and history vs. the respective pitchers, Verlander clearly with better stats. As well, he can go the distance. No value on the ML but I the RL is about right in terms of value. The Tigers having the top of the 9th for insurance runs makes it a little easier to fire on the run line. Zitto can be exposed for a lot more runs then Verlander so this is my play. 

Note: I will be making a small hedge after the top of the 9th, if the Tigers are up by 2+, and Verlander is pulled, I will def be hedging with the right odds if Valverde comes in. 

1 unit on each play, 3 total. Goodluck guys.
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#111
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:29:40 PM
Good luck Prof, how do you normally do at Russian Hockey?
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#112
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:45:53 AM
Thanks Jason. I have some reasonable success with KHL, hitting about 60% in a 20 game sample size. Here I have only posted 1 play so far so take it with a grain of salt.

I just run the stats as per usual. One thing I noticed about KHL is travel. The distance visiting teams travel can sometimes be 5-6 hour flights. Just run a map and team locations. There is a english version of khl website en.khl.ru  they have everything you need to do basic capping. GL.
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#113
Posted: 10/24/2012 12:48:00 AM
Thanks Lund. You too.
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#114
Posted: 10/24/2012 5:18:51 PM
adding....

NBA: Wash vs. Mia - WAS +8.5 @ 1.95

MLB: OVER 6.5 Det SFG @ 1.95

1 unit each gl
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#115
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:31:52 PM
Dynamo Moscow -0.5 @ 2.0 (+100) - lose 1 unit
Magnitogorsk -0.5 @ 1.80 (-127) - win 0.80 units
NBA: Wash vs. Mia - WAS +8.5 @ 1.95 - win 0.95 units profit
MLB: OVER 6.5 Det SFG @ 1.95 - win 0.95 units profit

OVERALL: +24.06 UNITS, +$2406
33/56 Singles - 58.9%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100% 


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#116
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:37:15 PM

Professor, what subject do you teach?

 

I'm a fellow professor as well.....

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#117
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:40:19 PM
Nice going Prof !, kudos to you. thanks for the informative reply too.
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#118
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:45:36 PM
Hello jjj, I teach statics, dynamics, and fluid mechanics. What is your discipline?
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#119
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:46:41 PM
Np Jason, best of luck
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#120
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:50:57 PM
Thurs Oct 25th:

Going with Fister, not confident in Baum, and love the late 9th for a Tigers confidence booster.

DET ml @1.83 Pinnacle 11:48 est.

TB @ MIN - Going with the Over 42.5 - @ 1.94

GL guys.


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#121
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:54:33 PM
You lost Detroit on the RL, why are you not putting that in your won/loss record?
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#122
Posted: 10/24/2012 11:56:41 PM
I teach technology at  NIU.
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#123
Posted: 10/25/2012 1:07:53 AM
Prof, any feel on Tampa keeping the game within the spread, upsetting game against Saints, maybe a Money line sprinkle?
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#124
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:15:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Eaglespts:

You lost Detroit on the RL, why are you not putting that in your won/loss record?

It should be obvious that I just missed it. Thank you however for noticing it. It was not a purposeful omission. Mistakes are bound to happen. I have reviewed my entire record and that is the only one I missed. 
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#125
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:18:16 AM
Excellent jjj, I teach at the University of Toronto. 

As for MNF, no I think that line Jason is pretty sharp. If I were to lean it's prob TB to cover 6.5 but i will be fading the spread. TB has shown to put up points so you never know.

Goodnite guys, I have the morning off tomm but I must catch up on my sleep!
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