Professor524 Offical Thread

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Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/15/2012 2:06:33 AM
Mon Oct 15th:

Really like Carpenter tomm, @2.00 (+100).

STL moneyline 1 unit

Sorry for lack of analysis, have to be up in 4 hours. Goodluck tomm everyone. 
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/15/2012 2:07:17 AM
Adding Denver / SD MNF - Over 47.5 - @1.93

1 unit.

GL
casanova27 PM casanova27
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Posted: 10/15/2012 2:31:29 PM
Lundegaard PM Lundegaard
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Posted: 10/15/2012 2:44:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

not really.. I use several of the main ones to try and get a general idea.  When they all say roughly the same thing its a fairly good indication where the public is betting.

Pregame, vegas insider, sports insights, and I also look to see where the Covers "public" is at on the matchup pages 


sbrodds.  use classic format. 
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/15/2012 4:28:24 PM
Thanks for the help guys. I am still converting over to the electronic stuff. For years I had big boxes of folders, and hundreds of books. 

Using the internet to search is much more efficient but harder for me. I am "old school" as you say. I love paper. I only started using the internet about 5 years ago regularly. Thanks for pointing me to the right sites.
PeterTheBeaver PM PeterTheBeaver
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Posted: 10/15/2012 11:56:38 PM
Nice NFL pick, too bad about the Cards, they didn't show up today. 
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/16/2012 12:48:44 AM
Thx Peter. Yeah, I am really surprised. A lot of bounces went SF way but they deserved to win. They got to Carp. 

I think the game changed when STL had runner on 2nd with nobody out early. Oh well.

Manning was great. Surprised the total was so low. 

Going to spend at least an hour on tomorrows game. Will post soon. Hope you had a good night.

STL vs. SF - STL ml - loss of 1 unit
DEN vs. SD - Over 47.5 - win 0.93
Overall: -0.07

Record:
OVERALL: +22.05 UNITS, +$2205, 
19/29 Singles - 65.5%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/16/2012 1:05:58 AM
Tues Oct 16: MLB

Going with the OVER 7 in the NYY vs. DET game (2.09, +109).

There is a lot of value on the Yanks as well so I am also take the NYY ml at +170 (2.7:1)

Also 1 correlated parlay: NYY ml + Over 7: 5.50:1 payout (+450)

This line is just ridiclous. Verlander is great, but I see 25-30% value here for NYY. NYY are not going to roll over. 

Goodluck guys.

NYY ml @2.69:1
Over 7@2.09:1
Parlay both for 5:50:1 (+450)
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/16/2012 1:06:34 AM
*1 unit for all 3 plays. GL.
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/16/2012 5:08:02 AM
Good morning guys. Heading off to work. Just wanted to clarify one unit each of the bets, 3 units total for baseball.

Also adding World Cup Qualifier, England ml vs. Poland -110 - 1 unit
on England and Germany Sweden over 3 goals -110 (3 is a push) for 1 unit.

GL
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/16/2012 10:11:04 PM
Adding NBA Pre Season.

Utah vs. LAL - Under 192.5 @ 1.90:1 - 1 unit
Utah +5.5 (bought a point) - 1.75:1 - 1 unit

Goodluck guys! Game starts in 1 min, sorry about late post.



Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/17/2012 12:58:41 AM
NYY ml @2.69:1 - loss of 1 unit
Over 7@2.09:1 - loss of 1 unit
Parlay both for 5:50:1 (+450) - loss of 1 unit
Utah vs. LAL - Under 192.5 @ 1.90:1 - loss of 1 unit
Utah +5.5 (bought a point) - 1.75:1 - win 0.75 units
Germany Sweden over 3 goals -110 - win 0.90 units
England vs. Poland - pending Oct 17

Record:
OVERALL: +19.70 UNITS, +$1970, 
21/35 Singles - 60%
0/1 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%

Well, despite losing the NYY bet, i loved the value. Was a good spot to take a small risk. Didn't work out and lost a unit on each play. Won the Over in Soccer (Germany vs. Sweeden) won the Utah bet vs. LAL, lost the under 192.5 by a shot last second. Oh well that's NBA. 

Overall singles are 21/35, @ 60%. Which is still great, but I am not happy this past week losing a few bets. Will regroup and see where I went wrong. Going to stick to the plan as always. No chasing, standard 1 unit flat bets. No reason to change long term success. Hope everyone had better luck than me this past week. 

cardifkill PM cardifkill
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Posted: 10/17/2012 1:46:25 AM
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/17/2012 6:00:25 AM
Wed Oct 17:

STL ml @ 1.83 - 1 unit

DET ml @ 1.95 - 1 unit

2 game parlay DET ml + STL ml : 3.50:1, +250

GL everyone
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/17/2012 5:51:22 PM
Adding NBA for today: Oct 17

LA clippers -5.5 vs. Utah, bought half a point at 1.85:1
Dallas M -3.5 vs PHX @1.95
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/18/2012 2:25:58 AM
I am terrible at NBA. I had to start capping it since there is no hockey yet. 1/4 so far. I think I will lay off NBA until I am really confident. 

England vs. Poland - pending Oct 17 - Loss of 1 unit
LA clippers -5.5 vs. Utah, bought half a point at 1.85:1 - loss of 1 unit
Dallas M -3.5 vs PHX @1.95 - loss of 1 unt
STL ml @ 1.83 - 1 unit - win 0.83 units profit
DET ml @ 1.95 - 1 unit - push
2 game parlay DET ml + STL ml : 3.50:1, +250 - Det push, Stl win - win (will count as a single) 0.83 profit

Record:
OVERALL: +18.02 UNITS, +$1802, 
23/40 Singles - 57.5%
0/1 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%

WakeAndRake PM WakeAndRake
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Posted: 10/18/2012 4:42:14 AM
Stl
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/18/2012 6:54:15 PM
This is by far the closest I have seen to a lock.

17mph blowing out to center field.
Solid .300+ averages of both teams
Bottom of order hitting hits above average as well.

I RARELY do this, but I am putting 5 units on this play.

SF. vs. STL OVER 7

Goodluck everyone. I thought about changing it to 8.5, but because of so many units at risk, going to leave it at 7 @ -112 (1.88) Pinny line.

Please note as I have said I play 1 unit per play 98% of the time, but once in a while, you see a solid play, it's ok to risk a little more. Little meaning max 5 units. Not ALL in or half your bankroll. 5 units is 10% of my roll. Very rare for me, but this game met 20/20 of my capping conditions.

GL

Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/18/2012 11:00:35 PM
Over hit, with still lots of time. Sorry for the dismal week, i will avoid NBA and re work my model. I think pre season, money can still be made, but I don't know enough to risk any more money on it. 

I will stick to MLB and NHL now. Really hoping NHL returns soon. I am not much of an NFL capper yet.

Congrats to all that tailed.

SF. vs. STL - Over 7 - @1.88 - Win +4.4 Units profit

Record:
OVERALL: +22.42 UNITS, +$2242
24/41 Singles - 58.5%
0/1 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
MuggsyBogues PM MuggsyBogues
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Posted: 10/18/2012 11:02:48 PM
Would be so sick if you went with 4 units on TO7.0 and 1 unit on TO8.5

Perhaps some other time
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/18/2012 11:15:50 PM
Hey everyone, sorry I did not accept any friend requests earlier. I am new to this forum medium. I am still learning my way around. I have added all the requests. 

If anyone needs some advice in capping, statics and dynamics or fluid mechanics, give me a shout.

Thank you,
Professor524
PeterTheBeaver PM PeterTheBeaver
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Posted: 10/19/2012 12:28:05 AM
I'm about to start my 4th year in mechanical engineering next year so I may have a few questions, thanks for your willingness to help
Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/19/2012 3:32:53 PM
It would be nice Mugs! It's ok, next time!

Peter that is great. Please please finish your degree no matter what. Bet for fun and focus on your education. Great job getting to year 4, any engineering discipline is tough. 


Professor524 PM Professor524
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Posted: 10/19/2012 3:38:10 PM
FRI MLB:

The line is at 1.88 at Pinnacle for the OVER 7.5 Stl SF tonight. Giants ML is excellent value. STL line getting pounded. This price is silly considering Lynn has not done too well vs. this Giants lineup.

Therefor my bet tonight is this:

1 Unit on SF ml @ 2.49
1 Unit on the Over 7.5@1.88
1 Unit on a parlay of SF ml and the Over 7.5 @ 4.68:1 (+368)

3 units total
Goodluck guys.

Professor524 PM Professor524
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quote#100
Posted: 10/20/2012 6:16:35 PM
1 Unit on SF ml @ 2.49 - WIN +1.49 units profit
1 Unit on the Over 7.5@1.88 - lose 1 unit
1 Unit on a parlay of SF ml and the Over 7.5 @ 4.68:1 (+368) - lose 1 unit

Too bad Stl could not hit up Zito, would have been profitable night, oh well. 

OVERALL: +21.91 UNITS, +$2191
25/43 Singles - 58.1%
0/2 for 2 game parlays - 0%
2/2 for 3 game parlays - 100%
1/1 for 4 game parlay - 100%
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