September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#126
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:04:57 AM
Well KC cashed. Cmon now O's. 1-1 Top of the 11th...
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#127
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:20:56 AM
3-1 O's close it out boys! 
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quote#128
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:25:21 AM
thirsty
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quote#129
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:28:06 AM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#130
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:28:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Adding:

#979 Baltimore Orioles +140 ($122 to win $170.80) WINNER!
over the Seattle Mariners

Woof woof woof
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#131
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:30:05 AM
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CoverLane PM CoverLane
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quote#132
Posted: 9/20/2012 3:15:50 AM

Doin work Herb

Is your name Herb or do you smoke Herb?

I'd love to come to vegas for a smoke...
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#133
Posted: 9/20/2012 3:49:23 AM
the first four letters of my last name are herb. it is a childhood nickname.
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quote#134
Posted: 9/20/2012 3:55:49 AM

when I get my first dog I'm naming him herb

You live in LV?
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#135
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:41:35 PM
Going off real soon. Not a dog, but....

#916 Detroit Tigers -1 +109 ($62 to win $67.58)
over the Oakland Athletics
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#136
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:43:56 PM
Here's a neat trick. Not sure how much sense it makes but....

After Justin Verlander wins, the Detroit Tigers are 21-10 (+1.84 rpg, +6.74 units) at home and 12-6 +7.85 units on the road (33-16 +14.59 units).


herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#137
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:44:28 PM
(since 2004 ^^^)
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#138
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:47:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:


when I get my first dog I'm naming him herb

Heh. I'm flattered. Sorry to throw you guys a curveball with a favorite today. I probably won't do it again.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#139
Posted: 9/20/2012 1:04:20 PM
Texas would be the dog to keep an eye on tonight. Not sure I can stomach a team though that is 44-43 (avg. line -155, -20.43 units) off of a win (this season).

2-5 off of a win and now a dog (-2.94 units). I dunno about the Rangers, but I kind of like a fade against Greinke with the Angels. He was a freakish 24-1 +22.92 units as a home favorite with the Brewers, but just 3-2 -0.2 units with the Angels. I think trading him and Randy Wolf away were f-ed up moves for the Brewers. Anyways, Milwaukee loved seeing him pitch; now he's up with a-hole J. Weaver in a new city and he's got a history of anxiety. Good luck if you take the Rangers here.

Fyi, the Rangers a 99.9% for the playoffs and could easily not give one about this game. The Angels are 0.3% for the playoffs. In the next to be knocked out spot with Zona. That doesn't make me crazy about Texas. Alas, they ARE a dog off of a win though....
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#140
Posted: 9/21/2012 1:33:15 AM
Well Texas took it 3-1; curses for not betting them. They must be playing without pace right now. That'll teach me to get fancy and take a favorite in September.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#141
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:50:52 AM
For Friday September 21st:

#964 Colorado Rockies +126 ($124 to win $156.24)
over the Arizona Diamondbacks


herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#142
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:51:27 AM
-The Colorado Rockies are good in this spot. This season, after 4 or more straight road games they are 8-1 +9.04 units coming back home. That's 6-0 +109% roi if they lost that last get away road game.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#143
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:52:34 AM
My order of best to worst 'good nuff to bet' dogs goes as so:

1. Rockies
2. Orioles
3. Padres
4. Braves

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quote#144
Posted: 9/21/2012 2:51:34 PM
no Oakland on your 'best' dogs list herb?
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#145
Posted: 9/21/2012 4:05:35 PM
No. Sabathia is  93-45 (1.36, 67.4%) +11.29 units career as a home favorite. I never bet against him while he's a home favorite. If it wasn't September I'd be betting him.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#146
Posted: 9/21/2012 4:08:01 PM
Add:

#971 Baltimore Orioles +113 ($62 to win $70.06)
over the Boston Red Sox
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#147
Posted: 9/22/2012 12:14:06 AM
New Bankroll: +$4,577.37
(from $4000)
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#148
Posted: 9/22/2012 12:27:40 AM
Guys,

If you want to follow my NFL teaser experiment here in the covers forum, here's the link: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101424475

I've got one up for Week 3.
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quote#149
Posted: 9/22/2012 11:41:29 AM
what do you think about this dog picks herbshak=
  • St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
    Run Line Spread
    Pick: Chicago Cubs +1,5 1.83
  • Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
    Run Line Spread
    Pick: Minnesota Twins +1,5 1.83
  • Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
    Run Line Spread
    Pick: Seattle Mariners +1,5
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#150
Posted: 9/22/2012 12:37:39 PM
Historically, one run losses or two run wins occur more for the road team so immediately I don't like the looks of Chicago or Seattle. Why not take the +1 on those two and the +1.5 on Minnesota for more value?

There is logic in that discrepancy: the home team covers the -1.5 less of the time because they'll often have 1 less inning to split up the margin; same token: the dog cover the +1.5 on the road more often because the home team, again, doesn't get the bottom of the ninth to play enough to make the runline worth taking for the home team. 
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