September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#276
Posted: 5/7/2013 2:15:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tinfoils:

Good luck herb!

Thanks for the love tin. Here's what I've got for today:

For 5.7.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#916 Boston Redsox ML
#930 Colorado Rockies ML
($234 to win $443.80)

Some Stupid Theory: *Think about Boston athletics right now in general though: The Red Sox were just 33-38 -18.61 units in Aprils from 2010 to 2012. Now this season they've stepped up and are 21-11 (65.6%)! 12-5 (70.6%) at home! That is a huge change! The Bruins were only 42.9% in the playoffs last year and now they're rocking Toronto off of a 5-2 win on the road. I don't know...I could be way off here and this is just variance or regression, but I think there's a pretty good reason we all know about for Boston teams to be playing 110% right now. Boston teams might be a good stock to buy or just not play against on the blind. Anyways...

**The Twins are just 20-47 (29.9%, -21.73 units) since 2011 after 5+ road games. The Red Sox are 63-40 (61.2%) SU facing a team in this spot at home since 2010.
*Under Manager Joe Girardi, the Yankees are just 49-49 (50%, -17.07 units, +10% roi fade) after 1 day rest. 8-12 (40%) SU on the road after a home game (0-3 if they lost that game).
-The Rockies are 13-6 SU (68.4%, 7.92 units) this season against right handed starters. 7-3 (70%) at home.
dejan588 PM dejan588
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quote#277
Posted: 5/7/2013 3:39:06 PM
Good Luck and thanks for the picks!   
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#278
Posted: 5/7/2013 8:57:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dejan588:

Good Luck and thanks for the picks!   

Thanks 
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#279
Posted: 5/8/2013 11:28:40 AM
#970 Houston Astros +131 ($390 to win $510.90)
over the LA Angels

List Norris / Blanton

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#280
Posted: 5/9/2013 11:28:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

#970 Houston Astros +131 ($390 to win $510.90) WINNER!
over the LA Angels

List Norris / Blanton


New Bankroll: $5,726.03 (+43.15%)
from $4000

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#281
Posted: 5/9/2013 11:31:01 AM
For today take:

#920 Washington Nationals +116 ($79 to win $91.64)
over the Detroit Tigers

-Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers are 32-37 (46.4%, +13.1 units to fade) as road favorites. 
*That's 6-19 (24%, +58.3% roi to fade) for -100 to -130. 
*Doug Fister has been 0-6 in this spot.
*Since 2011, the Washington Nationals have been 84-65 (56.4%, +28.63 units, +17.2% roi) against plus .500 teams after May. ('plus .500' doesn't mean anything in the first month).
*Since 2011, the Nationals have been 58-38 (60.4%, +20.86 units) after a close win by one or two runs.
YoungHova PM YoungHova
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quote#282
Posted: 5/9/2013 3:08:47 PM
Nice strategy you got going on here. Keep it up.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#283
Posted: 5/9/2013 9:07:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by YoungHova:

Nice strategy you got going on here. Keep it up.

Thanks YoungHova. As long as the trolls stay out of the thread I'll keep it going the whole season. Helps me to jot out my thoughts and keep em on record personally.

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#284
Posted: 5/9/2013 9:09:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For today take:

#920 Washington Nationals +116 ($79 to win $91.64) WINNER!
over the Detroit Tigers

-Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers are 32-37 (46.4%, +13.1 units to fade) as road favorites. 
*That's 6-19 (24%, +58.3% roi to fade) for -100 to -130. 
*Doug Fister has been 0-6 in this spot.
*Since 2011, the Washington Nationals have been 84-65 (56.4%, +28.63 units, +17.2% roi) against plus .500 teams after May. ('plus .500' doesn't mean anything in the first month).
*Since 2011, the Nationals have been 58-38 (60.4%, +20.86 units) after a close win by one or two runs.

New Bankroll: $5,817.67 (+45.44%)
from $4000
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#285
Posted: 5/10/2013 1:42:15 PM
For today take:

#974 Chi. White Sox -1 +137 ($80 to win $109.60)
over LA Angels

*The Angels are just 2-18 (10%, +52.3% roi to fade) since 2007 as road dogs off a 1 run win where they led in just 4 or fewer innings. 
-The Angels also have a bad lineup for right handed starters. Since 2012, they're 72-74 -25.15 units and this season just 5-14 (+10.38 units) to fade).
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#286
Posted: 5/12/2013 11:54:16 AM
#970 Kansas City -1 +131 ($160 to win $209.60)
over the New York Yankees

*Ned Yost is 69-66 (+24.37 units) going for same season revenge of 2+ losses to a team as the manager of the Royals. 
-That's 13-7 (65%) SU as home favorites.
dejan588 PM dejan588
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quote#287
Posted: 5/12/2013 12:28:21 PM
Hey, how do you make a -1 run line because whenever I make it i dont get anywhere close to the odds you get. For example today on the new york game i get +118 instead of +131. Thanks
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#288
Posted: 5/13/2013 2:04:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dejan588:

Hey, how do you make a -1 run line because whenever I make it i dont get anywhere close to the odds you get. For example today on the new york game i get +118 instead of +131. Thanks

I've got a calculator where I can bet the money line and runline. I can use different books for the two. I'm usually using the Pinnacle line too.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#289
Posted: 5/13/2013 2:07:08 PM
Two Team Parlay:
#912 Detroit Tigers ML
#918 Oakland Athletics ML
($240 to win $352.80)


-The A's are 37-20 (64.9%, +24.18 units) since 2012 after playing 4+ road games. 
*That's 11-2 (84.6%) now playing at home

*Since 2004, big favorites between -270 and -320 are 21-4 (9.30 units) in April and May.
-The Astros are 12-61 (16.4%, +35.14 units to fade) since 2012 as 170 to 270 dogs.


tinfoils PM tinfoils
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quote#290
Posted: 5/13/2013 2:22:19 PM
Good luck herb!
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#291
Posted: 5/14/2013 8:53:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tinfoils:

Good luck herb!

Thanks Tin :)
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#292
Posted: 5/14/2013 8:55:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Two Team Parlay:
#912 Detroit Tigers ML
#918 Oakland Athletics ML
($240 to win $352.80) WINNER!


-The A's are 37-20 (64.9%, +24.18 units) since 2012 after playing 4+ road games. 
*That's 11-2 (84.6%) now playing at home

*Since 2004, big favorites between -270 and -320 are 21-4 (9.30 units) in April and May.
-The Astros are 12-61 (16.4%, +35.14 units to fade) since 2012 as 170 to 270 dogs.



New Bankroll: $5,930.47 (+48.26 units)
from $4000
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#293
Posted: 5/15/2013 1:32:11 PM
#918 Oakland -1 +140 ($82 to win $114.80)
over the Texas Rangers

Texas is just 60-57 (+15.06 units to fade) since 2012 after a win. 
*That's 49-51 (+19.82 units to fade, +19.4% roi) playing again at the same site.
*The A's are 48-40 (54.5%, +18.27 units) against plus .500 teams since 2012 after Aprils. 
**That's 28-17 (62.2%, +14.27 units) at home.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#294
Posted: 5/16/2013 3:09:44 PM
Two Team Parlay:
#966 Texas Rangers ML
#954 Pittsburgh Pirates ML
($164 to win $373.92)

For 5.16.2013
s_dawg PM s_dawg
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quote#295
Posted: 5/16/2013 4:13:34 PM

thanks for your plays!

any stats or anything to back up the plays for today? I have a tough time laying money against verlander as a dawg...

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#296
Posted: 5/18/2013 12:33:06 PM
For today 5.18.2013:

Take:

#976 Texas Rangers +114 ($246 to win $280.44)
over the Detroit Tigers

List: Grimm / Sanchez

*Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers are just 17-34 (33.3%, +20.32 units to fade) on the road as -140 or cheaper favorites.
-Today Texas is off of a loss and since 2010, the Texas Rangers are 103-52 (66.5%, +37.97 units) off of a loss.
**They're 19-3 (+2.68 rpg, 86.4%, +49.2% roi) in game 2 or 3 (so against same opponent) after putting up 1 or ZERO runs since 2011. 6-1 at home.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#297
Posted: 5/18/2013 12:33:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by s_dawg:

thanks for your plays!

any stats or anything to back up the plays for today? I have a tough time laying money against verlander as a dawg...


sry s dawg. I didn't have time. Did some thoughts on today's play. 
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#298
Posted: 5/18/2013 9:50:59 PM
Lookin' good so far...Texas up 6-2 right now. 
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#299
Posted: 5/18/2013 11:39:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For today 5.18.2013:

Take:

#976 Texas Rangers +114 ($246 to win $280.44) WINNER!
over the Detroit Tigers

List: Grimm / Sanchez

*Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers are just 17-34 (33.3%, +20.32 units to fade) on the road as -140 or cheaper favorites.
-Today Texas is off of a loss and since 2010, the Texas Rangers are 103-52 (66.5%, +37.97 units) off of a loss.
**They're 19-3 (+2.68 rpg, 86.4%, +49.2% roi) in game 2 or 3 (so against same opponent) after putting up 1 or ZERO runs since 2011. 6-1 at home.

New Bankroll: $5,964.91 (+49.12 units)
from $4000

JDubs800 PM JDubs800
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quote#300
Posted: 5/18/2013 11:47:35 PM
Nice thread, no-juice plays... like it.
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