Wednesday 08/29 MLB (YTD 211-212 +37.54)

YTD 211-212 +37.54

CLV (Closing Line Value): +49.90

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +20.53

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Grind continues with a 1-2 day, dropping a unit. Tough sledding recently, I'm confident at some point I will right the ship but right now my dog plays are not hitting.

Two plays for today, both bet at opening BetCris numbers and posted in my Tuesday thread.

Wednesday 8/29

904 Arizona Diamondbacks +115

914 Chicago Cubs +110

Patrick Corbin is a bit of an unknown, but he's been getting some extremely strong lines. And rightfully so, the kid has been worth 1.1 WAR over only 10 starts. He isn't on par with his fellow counterpart Wade Miley, but he isn't that far off. Likewise, right now Latos is slightly off the pace of the lines that Johnny Cueto is getting. Therefore, with Cueto/Miley closing -110/+100 CIN yesterday, I'm thinking the line should be something similar tonight, around -110/+100 CIN or maybe -115/+105 CIN. To me -125/+115 just felt a bit too high. Seeing -113/+106 at Pinnacle right now.

Like the price on Samardjiza as a home dog today. I've had a pretty good read on Mike Fiers power-rating, and I feel like he's overvalued here. He's going from being +105 @ Wandy Rodriguez to -120 @ Samardjiza, and to me there just isn't that big of a difference between Wandy and Samardjiza. That's a 25 cent difference between the two when in actuality it's probably more like 10 to 15 cents. I had this one capped around -105/-105 or -110/+100 MIL (which is where BetOnline opened.) The price is right in my opinion for a play on the Cubs.

Good luck today everybody.

One play so far for tomorrow.

Thursday 8/30

Detroit Tigers -115

Porcello has made tremendous strides. Has gone from a 4.06 FIP and 2.7 WAR over 31 starts last season to a 3.65 FIP and 2.9 WAR over only 25 starts this season. I think people still have a negative perception when they think of the name Porcello, but he's become a really, really good pitcher.

I think oddsmakers and sharps have taken notice. When you consider his last two starts he was -180 at home against Zach Britton and around -105 at home against Zack Greinke, those are two really, really strong lines.

Considering that, I think -115 for him against Guthrie is around 10 to 15 cents too low. I'm willing to take a shot at that price.

The funny thing is the Indians were my most profitable team in the 1st half of the season. Think I made 10 units off them alone, every wager I placed on them pretty much won.

Now I can't hit an Indians bet to save my life. But value is value, and sometimes it's the plays you can't stomach that end up cashing.

Final card for tomorrow.

Thursday 8/30

Detroit Tigers -115

Toronto Blue Jays +150

Cleveland Indians +115

As suspected Latos closes -110/+100 against Corbin. A solid 15 cent edge, all you can do is put yourself in the best position possible and let the chips fall where they may.