in case anyone was wondering how i filter the system plays, it's fairly simply. basically a combination of win %, team pitching xFIP, run differential and 3 game series odds (avoiding heavy series favorites to avoid juice)
i've only been tracking this thing since may of this year, but so far it's produced pretty decent results for me, so i've decided to take the dive and play along with small money to see how it goes.
we all know that september baseball can get wild, so we'll see how this thing holds up as the season winds down...
in case anyone was wondering how i filter the system plays, it's fairly simply. basically a combination of win %, team pitching xFIP, run differential and 3 game series odds (avoiding heavy series favorites to avoid juice)
i've only been tracking this thing since may of this year, but so far it's produced pretty decent results for me, so i've decided to take the dive and play along with small money to see how it goes.
we all know that september baseball can get wild, so we'll see how this thing holds up as the season winds down...
my only criteria for the revenge series is that the plays are for 3 game sets ONLY, and i won't touch a team with a win % below .400
nothing groundbreaking, but basically taking the team to win at least one game of a 3 game set after getting swept by the same team in the last series meeting (3 games or 4)
i'm not getting into 4 game chases, for no other reason than to avoid heavy losses. For example, CIN at PHI would have been a play (seeing as Cincy was swept by Philly in 4 games late last year), but that's not a qualifying play because they are getting into a 4 game set again this time around.
no real solid data with these plays (haven't had much time to dig, but i'm sure someone has some better info)
i'm only basing these plays on the idea that i believe it's difficult for a semi-decent team to absorb back-to-back sweeps
may look to add filters down the line depending on performance... any thoughts?
my only criteria for the revenge series is that the plays are for 3 game sets ONLY, and i won't touch a team with a win % below .400
nothing groundbreaking, but basically taking the team to win at least one game of a 3 game set after getting swept by the same team in the last series meeting (3 games or 4)
i'm not getting into 4 game chases, for no other reason than to avoid heavy losses. For example, CIN at PHI would have been a play (seeing as Cincy was swept by Philly in 4 games late last year), but that's not a qualifying play because they are getting into a 4 game set again this time around.
no real solid data with these plays (haven't had much time to dig, but i'm sure someone has some better info)
i'm only basing these plays on the idea that i believe it's difficult for a semi-decent team to absorb back-to-back sweeps
may look to add filters down the line depending on performance... any thoughts?
Just curious how other players define revenge. For example. The Giants swept the Dodgers earlier in the year. Then the Dodgers got revenge by sweeping the Giants. I know that you won on the Giants, but is it considered still a revenge? Or more your just avoiding b2b's. Same w/ Twins & A's.
Just curious how other players define revenge. For example. The Giants swept the Dodgers earlier in the year. Then the Dodgers got revenge by sweeping the Giants. I know that you won on the Giants, but is it considered still a revenge? Or more your just avoiding b2b's. Same w/ Twins & A's.
by the way McShady, i'm a big fan of your work on the boards here and i've most definitely drawn some inspiration for these models from the info you post!
i have a hard time tailing plays without doing my own bit of homework, but if i had to choose someone to blindly follow, you'd be at the top of the list lol
by the way McShady, i'm a big fan of your work on the boards here and i've most definitely drawn some inspiration for these models from the info you post!
i have a hard time tailing plays without doing my own bit of homework, but if i had to choose someone to blindly follow, you'd be at the top of the list lol
yes i'm only defining it with the most recent series. is this a good way to go about it in your opinion? do you have any more info on these plays? any insight is much appreciated
yes i'm only defining it with the most recent series. is this a good way to go about it in your opinion? do you have any more info on these plays? any insight is much appreciated
Thx buddy. Theres nothing wrong with your logic and these will always be a solid scenerio. I personally just try and limit the selections by eliminating any matchup that has more than 2 sweeps in the current season. But if you are taking a series and breaking it down further...makes it that much stronger. There have been about 20 matchups already where a 2 teams have swept each other and low avg teams seam to b the best at revenge (cubs&indians). So many ways to look at it and make a run. GL
Thx buddy. Theres nothing wrong with your logic and these will always be a solid scenerio. I personally just try and limit the selections by eliminating any matchup that has more than 2 sweeps in the current season. But if you are taking a series and breaking it down further...makes it that much stronger. There have been about 20 matchups already where a 2 teams have swept each other and low avg teams seam to b the best at revenge (cubs&indians). So many ways to look at it and make a run. GL
good call mc...i'll be spending more time parsing thru these results as time passes. i've been below average tracking individual plays, so i'm trying my luck with a few chase scenarios to see where they take me.
always with a lean to dogs and small favs on these plays as well.
i'll be keeping my eyes on yours and similar systems and trying to learn as much as i can, thanks again for the help
good call mc...i'll be spending more time parsing thru these results as time passes. i've been below average tracking individual plays, so i'm trying my luck with a few chase scenarios to see where they take me.
always with a lean to dogs and small favs on these plays as well.
i'll be keeping my eyes on yours and similar systems and trying to learn as much as i can, thanks again for the help
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