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[MLB Betting] Topic: SJSharks - Saturday Bases |
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SJSharks99 |
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#1 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:41:18 PM
68-40 Last 108 (62.9%) 
45-23 Last 68 (66.1%)
Season:166-149-4
ML: 92-79
RL: 27-14
Totals: 34-42-3
Props: 13-14-1
Saturday Bases
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SJSharks99 |
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#2 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:41:27 PM
Rockies ML (-129): I am pretty sure
this will be the first time all season that I have decided to back the
Rockies. This teams pitching has been a mess and I have just simply
avoided them. Today though presents a very rare situation where I feel
great backing them. If it's one team that makes the Rockies look good
it's the Miami Marlins. The starting pitching in this game will feature
the Tyler Chatwood and Nathan Eovaldi. Let's start with the struggling
ex dodger Eovaldi. On the year he is 3-8 with a 4.28 era and an awful
44-33 strike out to ball ratio. He has struggled since putting on a fish
uniform going 1-2 with an era of 6.00. His struggles have been way way
way too many free passes... he has a WHIP of 2.50 in his last 3 outings
and has DOUBLE the amount of walks (10) to strike outs (5). His high
WHIP total lately isn't something new, he has allowed 32 walks in 73
innings of work. The Rockies might be struggling on the year, but it has
nothing to do with offensive production from both sides of the plate.
They come in at #9 overall against lefties. If Eovaldi continues his
ways off free passes, the Rockies will make him pay dearly. Especially
at the hitters park in Coors Field. This will Eovaldi's 3rd career start
against the Rockies and is 0-2 with a 6.52 era. The Rockies will be
countering with one of there many young pitchers in Tyler Chatwood. This
kid has good stuff and once he gets his command down, he will be very
good. I got too see him 1st hand last week when he tossed 5 shut out
innings allowing just 3 hits against my Giants. He has been great in his
last 3 outings going 2-1 with a 1.26 era. He has a solid WHIP of 1.05
in those 3 outings. His last outing came at home against an offensive
Brewers ball club. In that outing he went 6 strong, holding the Brewers
to just 1 run on 4 hits. More importantly he show command improvements
not allowing any free passes. This will be his 4th start at home on the
year and he comes in with a 2-1 record and a 3.86 era. That era is
pretty darn good for a young pitcher, especially at Coors field. He
should have a very good shot at improving on those #s facing an Marlins
team that ranks #28 in the league against right handed pitching. This
will also be the 1st time the Marlins have faced Chatwood, which will
give him a major advantage navigating through the batting order the
first few times around. I think the Rockies will get to Eovaldi quick
and often and ride Chatwood to a comfortable win. I am avoiding the RL
due to the Rockies starting pitching being at a pitch count limit of 75,
I don't wanna rely upon the 18th ranked Rockies pen to hold my RL lead
in a hitters park. I feel much better about the ML price I got.
White Sox ML (-137): I had a very
strong lean towards backing Sale and the Sox last night, but thankfully
ended up passing on them due to Sales road #s and the Royals already
seeing the young phenom 3 times this year. Today however, I am jumping
on the White Sox with confidence. The pitching match up of Jake Peavy
vs. Bruce Chen will be a big advantage for the White Sox. He might not
be the same player he once was but Peavy still gets the job done. On the
year he is 9-8 with a 3.08 era. He has been even better lately with a
2.89 era and 1-1 mark. He has had quality starts in 4 out of his last 5
outings. He has a very respectable road era of 2.90 to go with a WHIP of
1.09. His counterpart will be the Royals Bruce Chen. On the year Chen
comes in with a 8-10 mark and 5.56 era. He has struggled in his last 3
outings going 1-1 with a 6.14 era. He has been sub par at home this year
going 4-3 with a 4.62 era. This will be Chens 2nd start at home this
season vs the White Sox. In the 1st outing he lasted just 4.2 innings
allowing 6 runs on 9 hits, 3 of which were home runs. The White Sox line
up will also have Paul Konerko back, which makes a huge difference in
the heart of the line up. Both teams are about equal in terms of
offensive splits with the White Sox being #10 vs lefties and the Royals
being #11 vs righties. But the Royals have really struggled lately
against right handed pitching batting just .227 in there last 5 outings.
The Royals will have the advantage in bullpens, but I think the
offensive line up and starting pitching advantage for the White Sox will
be enough to counter. This game being in KC doesn't bother me either.
The Royals come in as one of the leagues worst teams at home with a
record of 24-33, meanwhile the Sox are a respectable 33-27 in games away
from US Cellular. This game has much more meaning for the Sox who can
hear the Tigers creeping on there door steps for the AL Central, with
there lead trimmed to just 1.5 games. I think Ventura will have his boys
ready for a big game and a win.
Arizona/Houston U 8.5 (-120): I
locked this in pretty quick last night thinking it would drop to 8 at
some point today. Well pretty stoked because it did drop to 8 at most
books. Totals is definitely not my strong suit by any means, and I
wouldn't try and convince you other wise. I do feel a bit snake bitten
lately on some of my total losses, but that comes with the territory
when your playing totals. They are truly unpredictable sometimes. Cy
Young pitchers lay eggs, that AAA reliever make an emergency start
throws a 3 hitter, or the famous bullpen collapse. Those are obviously
just some examples, but what I am getting at it's always risky to play
totals. That being said, I do feel pretty good about this one so ill be
hoping for the best. In this game the D'Backs will be sending there
young lefty Patrick Corbin to the mound. The young south paw has pitched
very well lately going 1-1 with a 2.89 era. He has avoided pitching
from the stretch with a microscopic WHIP of 0.89. He will have a good
chance of improving those #s facing an Astros team that is ranks dead
last #30 overall against lefties. Arizona has also been light outs in
the bullpen department lately and on the season come in at #5 overall.
The Astros will be countering with a young pitcher of there own in
Jordan Lyles. At first glance his season era (5.47) and last 3 outings
era of (5.21) could be alarming. However his home and away splits stands
out more and is much more relevant in this case due to a large
disparity favoring his home starts. Lyles at home this year has a 3.61
era compared to a much higher road era. His home success has a lot to
due with a pretty good WHIP of 1.15. Keeping guys off base and avoiding
having to pitch from the stretch is a huge thing for a young pitcher,
just like pitching at home. He should have a good chance of a successful
outing in his one against a D'Backs team that ranks #22 in the league
against right handed pitching. Both offenses have struggled lately on
the offensive splits with the D'Backs batting .205 vs righties and the
Astros batting .209 vs lefties in the last 5 outings. Houston does have a
struggling bullpen, but I think Lyles will go deep into this ballgame
and avoid some long/middle relieve from the Astros pen.
Not much sticks out to me today, a few other leans but definitely not
anything I feel comfortable locking in. Gonna enjoy the day and ride
these 3 plays. Best of luck to everyone |
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aloja27 |
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#3 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:43:07 PM |
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Teaser78 |
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#4 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:44:45 PM  NICE HIT ON YOUR PARLAY ... I ASSUME YOU DIDNT HAVE WEAVER LIKE THE REST OF US MOPES LMAOOO
GOOD JOB BUYING ROUND ... GREAT KARMA |
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brent0887 |
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#5 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:45:26 PM  |
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tud18237 |
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#6 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:46:21 PM BOL |
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904HotPlay |
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#7 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:46:31 PM  |
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siilentlou |
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#8 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:47:41 PM |
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BoogieD |
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#9 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:47:57 PM Been tailing you for some time. Great Job With your picks.
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alwaylose |
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#10 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:48:33 PM  |
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KktdocT |
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#11 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:51:00 PM
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farmersrh |
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#12 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:52:49 PM
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#13 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:55:45 PM
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SJSharks99 |
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#14 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:58:26 PM
Teaser - Thanks man, I had the Angels in a 3rd parlay, but obviously
more then content hitting 2 of them. And karma is a beautiful thing
sometimes, so drinks were essential.
Tud - Glad I could help man, we are all in this together to beat the books, enjoy the day with your girl
904HotPlay - Nah, no parlays today. Yesterday was a rare day when
all the huge lopsided handled business. Today features a lot less of
those mismatches and much closer lines. If anything, I might parlay my 3
straight bets, but we shall see
Silentlou - Thank you
AlwaysLose - Your welcome, glad it's been going well
KKtDoct - Thanks sir, nice hit on your Yanks TT yesterday
Farmersh - Nah, see what I wrote to 904Hotplay ^
JDR - The Royals definitely play Chicago tough, I just feel this is a game the White Sox gotta have. I think they will get job done
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ktan23 |
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#15 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:58:50 PM |
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tinfoils |
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#16 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:59:41 PM |
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SJSharks99 |
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#17 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:01:12 PM
TinFoils - thank your sir... good luck 2 u as well
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Denverb |
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#18 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:01:37 PM
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docpj72 |
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#19 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:08:09 PM |
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Whalewatcher |
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#20 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:09:05 PM GL!
Not feeling much either don't want to force the issue 7-1 yest'
3 gm max! |
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SJSharks99 |
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#21 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:10:39 PM
Docpj - Thanks, hope it pans out
Whale - Exactly, no reason.. if it's not there, it's not there
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BIGCAT_LSU |
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#22 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:14:03 PM   |
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piknroll |
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#23 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:22:32 PM |
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Baby_BA |
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#24 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:27:24 PM |
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badlucky |
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#25 Posted: 8/18/2012 3:29:29 PM |
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