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si1ly |
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#1 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:52:09 PM '10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u '10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u '10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u '10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u '10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u '10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u '11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u '11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u '11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u '11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u '11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u '11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u '11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u '11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u '11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB: 97-61-4 (61.4%) +28.96u
4:05 EST - Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 (+100)
7:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros Under 8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 (+100) |
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andreagassi6969 |
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#2 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:52:34 PM  |
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jezhead |
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#3 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:52:50 PM  |
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NYBUILT |
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#4 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:53:12 PM |
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si1ly |
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#5 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:55:41 PM
NYM First 5 (+127)
SDP (-105)
PIT (+145)
CHC@CIN First 5 Under 3.5 (-105)
DET First 5 -0.5 (-135)
MIN First 5 (+110) |
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buffalo11 |
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#6 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:56:25 PM  |
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KeyElement |
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#7 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:57:48 PM
BOL
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si1ly |
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#8 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:58:11 PM
First 5 Innings - Detroit Tigers -0.5 (-135)
First 5 Innings - Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Under 3.5 (-105)
8:35 EST - San Diego Padres -1.5 (+190)
Payout: (+856) |
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thatsagoodone |
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#9 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:06:05 PM parlays are so exciting, but I hardly win them. LOL gl si1ly
I'm liking a parlay of Padres, Boston, Mets, Blue Jays, Brewers. |
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#10 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:09:06 PM
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aloja27 |
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#11 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:12:13 PM |
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tinfoils |
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#12 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:15:41 PM |
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#13 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:18:00 PM  |
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904HotPlay |
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#14 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:19:26 PM  |
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#15 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:24:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly: '10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u '10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u '10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u '10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u '10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u '10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u '11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u '11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u '11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u '11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u '11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u '11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u '11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u '11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u '11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB: 97-61-4 (61.4%) +28.96u
4:05 EST - Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 (+100)
7:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros Under 8.5 (-110)
First 5 Innings - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 (+100)
Your model predicts unders (albeit slightly) in both the Cards and Braves games. What additional factors led you to taking the over in both?
BOL today
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LEBRONNN |
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#16 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:34:33 PM |
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aloja27 |
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#17 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:34:38 PM silly whats ur take on atl/lad game... a lot of people leaning lad but you have harrang just on the cusp of your worst 30 pitchers and even last game when sheets struggled he only gave up 4... at this point the braves can hit to cover that... |
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si1ly |
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#18 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:41:12 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by P4P: Your model predicts unders (albeit slightly) in both the Cards and Braves games. What additional factors led you to taking the over in both? BOL today
My models use season averages.. so this late in the season, some of that data is lagging behind current performance. I supplement last 30 day reports into my handicapping and I manually adjust the lines accordingly.
Recent pitching for Harang has him #136 / 164 over the last 30 days. Sheets has been solid, but his batted-ball peripherals indicate that batters are seeing his pitches and he's likely due to regress against good offenses. Dodgers are a bad offense by season long standards, but they come into the game ranked in the top 10 in recent play. Same with Atlanta. Basically two pitchers on a down-tick and two offenses on an up-tick. The line opening juiced to the over indicated it was also the right side.
Same can be said for Lynn and the Cardinals. Bedard has been better than usual lately, but he's still a lefty and the Cardinals are ranked #1 against lefties. Bedard also has horrible road splits. Cards bullpen is horrible and the umpire favors the over (per GG's research). Again, enough variables to push the projected totals up in both games. |
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si1ly |
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#19 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:41:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by aloja27: silly whats ur take on atl/lad game... a lot of people leaning lad but you have harrang just on the cusp of your worst 30 pitchers and even last game when sheets struggled he only gave up 4... at this point the braves can hit to cover that...
Lean Atlanta on the side. |
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aloja27 |
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#20 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:45:24 PM |
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904HotPlay |
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#21 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:51:31 PM   |
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si1ly |
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#22 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:55:05 PM |
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#23 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:02:26 PM |
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aloja27 |
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#24 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:03:06 PM silly,
i know this might sound stupid but when you bet action instead of certain pitchers does it change the line at all? or is just to insure if the pitcher changes at the last minute ur bet is still there? i have wondered this but never really incountered a situation... |
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#25 Posted: 8/18/2012 2:03:39 PM |
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