Down a ton!!

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Down a ton!!
jrivisto PM jrivisto
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:29:53 AM
I've been cold as anyone can be. Took a beating over the past few days. I was looking for 1 game to put it all on and get just about even. I was think one of these two. 

Braves ML
Red ML

What one should I go all in with???
Snozza PM Snozza
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:42:35 AM
Not one for going all in but if I had to choose between the 2, Reds ML would be your best bet imo.
kinggeorge27 PM kinggeorge27
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:44:57 AM
Don't do it. Cash it out and pay a bill with most of it and buy a 12 pack of your favorite beer with the rest. 

Then you've done the responsible thing and the beer will make you feel like you've won a million bucks. 

Do it now, thank me later. 
jrivisto PM jrivisto
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:45:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Snozza:

Not one for going all in but if I had to choose between the 2, Reds ML would be your best bet imo.

I hear ya. I just figure pick 1 game put it all on and if I lose take off until football starts which is a couple of weeks. 
jrivisto PM jrivisto
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:46:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kinggeorge27:

Don't do it. Cash it out and pay a bill with most of it and buy a 12 pack of your favorite beer with the rest. 

Then you've done the responsible thing and the beer will make you feel like you've won a million bucks. 

Do it now, thank me later. 

Hahaha. Should have done that a long time ago but a gambler never does haha
DestinedWinner PM DestinedWinner
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Posted: 8/14/2012 9:57:50 AM

So let's just say that you picked a winner by going all in. Now you're back to even. You might even go up now by picking a few winners in a row. However, it is much more likely that you'll start losing again in the future just like how you lost in the first place. When that happens, you're gonna want to go all in on one play again. What if you don't hit on your second try? Then, you're truly fucked.

My advise is therefore; don't do it. Withdrawl whatever you have left. If not, take a few days off and come back. Start over. Manage your bankroll. 99% people know it, less than 5% actually follow it.

MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:07:58 AM
That's great advice, DestinedWinner, but our man jrivisto is looking for a way to lose, so I think he's on the right track with this "put it all on one play" idea.
jrivisto PM jrivisto
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:09:55 AM
Great advise across the board. I was going to get even on this one play then lay low for awhile. 
SJSharks99 PM SJSharks99
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:12:57 AM
Everyone here gave good advice, but since your gonna do it anyhow....

Between those 2... Id go with Atlanta. I trust Hudson more then I do Latos
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MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:12:59 AM

It's sad when desperate gamblers sink down to the "one bet to either get even or end my misery" idea, and it's truly pathetic how they NEVER have the courage to consider an underdog in this situation.  Look at our man jrivisto - he's asking us "Should I take the -175 favorite in Atlanta, or the -185 favorite in Cincinnati?" 

 

It's sad and pathetic.  It's pathetic and sad.  It's pathetisad.

DestinedWinner PM DestinedWinner
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:17:10 AM

If you are gonna do it anyhow, I agree with Sharks. I like the Braves much more than the Reds. They are more a fundamentally sound team (good SP+good BP+solid hitting).

MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:18:17 AM

It's a testament to the self-destructive nature of gamblers that they never consider going all-in on a game when they're on a hot streak (when they actually stand a chance of not choking on an important selection), but they have little fear of doing it when they're ice cold and unlikely to get away with it.

 

 

No matter what, you gotta love Covers.com.  Good luck to you, jrivisto!  If you're going to insist on plowing forward with the all-in bet, go with your instincts and then wager the money on whoever they're playing.

duranizm PM duranizm
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:23:02 AM
basically, both plays can be good to me so far. Braves ML is like free money. if i were you, i would take Hudson in this spot. Clayton Richards has been good, but when he was good, he was raped by Braves, which means Braves MUST have confidence in hitting his balls. the fact that his balls or not doen's matter in this spot to me. Braves ML as POD, then OVER as insurance, then no loss to me. i checked both starters' Sabmermetrics, most of them were pitched location, release point, and this is my conclusion.

need to check line movement, lineup, ump, weather. anyway this is just my reasoning, GL.
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:26:46 AM
duranizm, poor Clayton Richard won't last past the first inning if the Braves hit his balls even once.
jrivisto PM jrivisto
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:29:54 AM
The only thing that scares me with the Braves is that SD is playing great ball the past 2 weeks. 
MrBator PM MrBator
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:32:31 AM
duranizm, the Padres are 8-9 on the road since the All-Star break, winning those 8 games as dogs.  You'd be down a bunch betting against them. You sure you wanna call the Braves "free money" tonight?
duranizm PM duranizm
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:46:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:

duranizm, the Padres are 8-9 on the road since the All-Star break, winning those 8 games as dogs.  You'd be down a bunch betting against them. You sure you wanna call the Braves "free money" tonight?


so far, Braves ML can be free money to me. i DO know Pads have played really well and i didn't treat them lightly. as soon as i took the opeing line, however, i thought this can be so good. IMO line should not be this, i mean Braves -170 is sort of strange a bit.

Plus, i checked both starters' Sabermetrics, well, i'm quite sure Clayton Richards can be disastrous. his last game against Cubbies was good, however, there were some risky sliders & 2 seamers. i will expect he will be in trouble if he keeps pitching those pitches or similar game plan.

your mentioned trend  ' the Padres are 8-9 on the road since the All-Star break' is extremely extraordinary to me. Pads are not that good to me. i belive every team returns to normal, their real value, i mean regression. i often play in this way, that's why i think it's like free money. thanks to my poor written english, i can not show my whole reasoning, but overall, my reasoning is like this.

Hudson's pitched location has been consistent, so worth taking Hudson. nevertheless, this is not good enough. need to check lineup, LM, ump. anyway GL, just my thinking on this game.
cardifkill PM cardifkill
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:52:16 AM
The Braves and Reds do not look good today. Don't do it. Just be patient. You can't bet every day. Save it for a money day when the matchups are better. I wouldn't fade Chris Young just yet and Clayton Richard dominates. Plus the Braves cannot hit LHP for nothing.
cardifkill PM cardifkill
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Posted: 8/14/2012 10:57:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by duranizm:



so far, Braves ML can be free money to me. i DO know Pads have played really well and i didn't treat them lightly. as soon as i took the opeing line, however, i thought this can be so good. IMO line should not be this, i mean Braves -170 is sort of strange a bit.

Plus, i checked both starters' Sabermetrics, well, i'm quite sure Clayton Richards can be disastrous. his last game against Cubbies was good, however, there were some risky sliders & 2 seamers. i will expect he will be in trouble if he keeps pitching those pitches or similar game plan.

your mentioned trend  ' the Padres are 8-9 on the road since the All-Star break' is extremely extraordinary to me. Pads are not that good to me. i belive every team returns to normal, their real value, i mean regression. i often play in this way, that's why i think it's like free money. thanks to my poor written english, i can not show my whole reasoning, but overall, my reasoning is like this.

Hudson's pitched location has been consistent, so worth taking Hudson. nevertheless, this is not good enough. need to check lineup, LM, ump. anyway GL, just my thinking on this game.


The under 8 is looking good to me.
Clayton is tough to face.

topshelf84 PM topshelf84
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:02:41 AM
Parlay cards and over9
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duranizm PM duranizm
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:07:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cardifkill:



The under 8 is looking good to me.
Clayton is tough to face.



if line was more toward Pads, then i would take UNDER, but in this spot, UNDER can be risky to me. Hudson has been consistent, his pitched location, pitched balls are risky to me. look at Braves hitters' stat against Clayton, and his stat at turner field. this is hilarious to me because Clayton could have owned them if they were Cubbies. I mean these Braves MUST have confidence in hitting his balls. even when he was quite good, he was raped there.
brianpitts3 PM brianpitts3
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:07:28 AM
GO with reds-.5 first five innings... U have better chance
ac_bum PM ac_bum
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:14:43 AM
 WHEH YOU GET TO THIS POINT OF NO RETURN

50/50 CHANCE COIN FLIP

GUN TO THE HEAD

I WOULD SPLIT IT  50-50
darn IT BOTH MAY WIN BOTH MAY LOSE OR YOU MAY GO 1-1

AND STILL IN THE GAME

AS ALWAYS GL BRO
I HOPE THE GODS ARE WITH YOU TODAY


cardifkill PM cardifkill
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:15:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:

duranizm, poor Clayton Richard won't last past the first inning if the Braves hit his balls even once.


Good luck with that claim Mr Bator.
Clayton is one of the biggest work horses in baseball. He can pitch the 1st inning with his eyes closed.
ac_bum PM ac_bum
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Posted: 8/14/2012 11:20:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jrivisto:

The only thing that scares me with the Braves is that SD is playing great ball the past 2 weeks. 
DONT OVER ANALYZE  THAT garbage WILL KILL YOU EVERY TIME 
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